Charley Advisories

[Typhoon_Willie]

Very nice loop indeed Brent! And of course something to watch on down the road?

[Stormchaser16]

Mwatkins made a great post about this, Bonnie could create a weakness in the ridge in the Atlantic to cause Td3 to move more towards the right of the projected path....... no matter how far apart systems are in the basin, they create atmospheric changes in the basin that can and will affect another system.

[bahamaswx]

Something to watch indeed. Might bring the US it's long overdue major 'cane.

[Brent]

[vbhoutex]

Interestigly the strongest convection with TD3 is now in the NW quadrant or it looks that way on the IR you posted.

[Dave C]

Also, convective activity increases at nite, with lowest period during the afternoon which is when it's convection seemed to pulse down. Will be interesting to see what it looks like at dawn Tues. Has anyone posted on when this system will be reconed?

[Josephine96]

Well.. if that occurs.. we may have a double whammy here with Bonnie's projected path...

[opera ghost]

Recon tomorrow if I remember correctly.

[Brent]

Recon is going out tomorrow, yes.

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

Some go to the west Florida coast others go more west to the Louisiana coast so all who live in the Gulf coast from Brownsville to Miami must watch the track.

[Hurricanehink]

Ooh, looking nice right now!

[cycloneye]

Now it looks like it is organizing a bit more.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just hope that the models were smoking a joint when they put forth that output. I shouldnt really say that cause no matter where it goes, it could be some serious trouble with a capital T.

<RICKY>

P.S- Hey guys I am sorry I never really posted that much on the boards despite the fact that I joined last year. I didnt wanna say anything stupid. So lemme re-introduce myself. I am Ricky and I am from Miramar Florida. Peace

[Brent]

I won't be surprised at all if Charley arrives at 11pm.

[opera ghost]

So essentially... we think it's going to make landfall somewhere on the gulf coast *grins* It's so far out that such a broad area seems completly reasonable *Laughs* but you have to admit it's kind of funny.

"Yep.. it's going to land somewhere in the Gulf."

[Derek Ortt]

basically the same as the last one, merely an extention of the previous forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

check on the site for bonnie's. I'll try to let everyone know, but may be eating my dinner of all things, lol

[CaluWxBill]

I won't be surprised at all if Charley arrives at 11pm.

I don't think there is much doubt about that. I may be stupid. but I certainly don't think it is going out on a limb to pretty much already call it a Tropical Storm. Next Advisory 50mph.

[MWatkins]

No time for both systems so I picked one and went with it. Enjoy.

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/TC03_2004.htm

MW

[Stormchaser16]

Id hesitate to say 50 MPH without recon getting in there, 40-45MPH maybe at 11PM, but any strenghtneing the NHC does with the system without recon will probably be slow and gradual.

[Brent]

No way they will go to 50 UNLESS they get a ship or buoy report. 40-45 mph more than likely. Until recon gets out there, they are going to be cautious about raising the intensity.