Bonnie Advisories

[Javlin]

No one along the GC is out of the woods on this one.The storm continues what appears lately aWNW move.This move further to W moves the strike probabilty to the W.The city of NO could be in bad shape if blows over them.The city already below sealevel.If NO was going to take a hit this is the direction it would want.Keep the water of Lake Pontchatrain were it's at.

[Steve H.]

Slowly we are seeing TD#3 begin to migrate convection towards the center. This is a good sign for development, though I am still cautiously optimistic on development

[The Dark Knight]

I'm sorry for the confusion guys.... I was in a rush to et this out on the Net.....I issued this map at 8:30PM... These are solely my own opinion on the possible tracks for Bonnie... All of these tracks are assuming that Bonnie stopped now... I am really sorry for any confusion.......

[zoeyann]

I'm not tring to start an arguement, maybe I'm confused, but I thought she was still heading westward, wouldn't she hve to turn in the opposite direction immediatly to do what this model shows

[Josephine96]

Sounds like Florida all the way... Hmm..

[Stormchaser16]

I AM trying to start an argument...... no jk

But still, Bonnie is headed uhhhhhh westward right now, shed have to come to a complete stop immediately, and then randomly and amazingly turn in the other direction. Unless there is a wall in the center of the GOM that no one has filled me in on yet then these tracks are all 100% impossible.

[Stormcenter]

All I can say is , HUH??????

When were these tracks issued?

[Brent]

I'm not tring to start an arguement, maybe I'm confused, but I thought she was still heading westward, wouldn't she hve to turn in the opposite direction immediatly to do what this model shows

It's moving between WNW and NW now. Should be fully NW later tonight with a turn sometime tomorrow starting. Trust me... this is going to be an Eastern LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle storm.

[tallywx]

Latest two recon. fixes have 5N, 7W heading. That's 305.54 degree heading. Not exactly west.

Also, it moved 9.38 miles in 84 minutes. That's approximately 7 miles per hour, or 6 knots. So current motion is 305/6.

[kevin]

Weather systems aren't freight trains, they can slow down and get off their current tracks. The NHC is confident that there will be a NE turn. Otherwise they would have noted such. We'll see at 11.

[Josephine96]

I have 2 words for you guys.. SLINGSHOT EFFECT... When the storm gets north enough.. it is forecast to be picked up by a trough and head towards Florida..

simple enough..

[Stormcenter]

I AM trying to start an argument...... no jk

But still, Bonnie is headed uhhhhhh westward right now, shed have to come to a complete stop immediately, and then randomly and amazingly turn in the other direction. Unless there is a wall in the center of the GOM that no one has filled me in on yet then these tracks are all 100% impossible.

I think the models are having serious problems handling Bonnie.
I sincerely mean that.

[Stormchaser16]

Uhhhhh yea but, these tracks indicate an immediate NE movement, Ive never seen a hurricane moving one direction, then immediately just start spinning another(it takes some time at least for a turn to occur), it cannot just do it instantly....... these models or whatever they are, are pretty horrendous

[zoeyann]

Well I just put it like that so no one would be offended. The map just seems odd to me because instead of showing a gradual turn to the north and east it stops the storm in its tracks and shifts direction

[opera ghost]

I'm not tring to start an arguement, maybe I'm confused, but I thought she was still heading westward, wouldn't she hve to turn in the opposite direction immediatly to do what this model shows

It's moving between WNW and NW now. Should be fully NW later tonight with a turn sometime tomorrow starting. Trust me... this is going to be an Eastern LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle storm.

I don't think they were arguing about where it was going- but how it got there was pretty strange. The map called for the storm to simply start heading due east from it's current location... and while it's probably going to recurve to the east- it's not going to just stop and turn the opposite direction- it's going to have to curve to get there.

It was the method in question rather than the outcome.

[Stormcenter]

I have 2 words for you guys.. SLINGSHOT EFFECT... When the storm gets north enough.. it is forecast to be picked up by a trough and head towards Florida..

simple enough..

There is no sling shot yet. As matter fact there won't be one until late Wednesday.
As I said before after seeing those tracks, huh?

[Stormchaser16]

Congratulations tallywx..... I know where the storm is headed, that could just be a wobble between two fixes, give me a call when its like 5 in a row that show that motion. My point is that it is still headed W as opposed to the compass direction E as these models show........(disregarding in between directions).... the system itself is still progressing west while these models initiate and then forecast a NE trajectory

[Stormcenter]

I AM trying to start an argument...... no jk

But still, Bonnie is headed uhhhhhh westward right now, shed have to come to a complete stop immediately, and then randomly and amazingly turn in the other direction. Unless there is a wall in the center of the GOM that no one has filled me in on yet then these tracks are all 100% impossible.

I think the models are having serious problems handling Bonnie.
I sincerely mean that.

[Stormchaser16]

Exactly Opera...... guys i can SEE where it is headed now..... i.e brent, tallywx.... im not stupid

My point is that this map doesnt even show a gradual turn, it just starts a NE movement imediately

[zoeyann]

Thank you opera ghost. That is what I was trying to say. You explined it better than I did.