Speaks for itself.

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Stormcenter
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Speaks for itself.

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:56 pm

This satellite loop pretty much
tells you where Bonnie is "currently"
moving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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freeport_texas2005
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#2 Postby freeport_texas2005 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:06 pm

hey stormcenter if u go to khou.com and go to dans weather board he said he woudlent be surprised if they changed the course for bonnie to westward..
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:11 pm

Yeah it does ... it's moving on course, and still NW ... the track might be shifted slightly left, but ...

(almost) everyone is seeing the higer canopy of clouds being blown off to the west ...

The issue here is this ...

Where's the upper level high ... oops, it's somewhat displaced ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

There's basically an elongated flat ridge aloft with a nose towards the W GOM at this time ... in which, the 12z initializations will back up at the 300mb level ...

Image
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:17 pm

Furthermore, Bonnie is experiencing a bit of NE'ly shear ... although, conditions aren't exactly overly hostile ... progged steering currents change very abruptly in the next 48 hours as another very deep trough for this time of year swings down (although, maybe slightly overdone, however, the GFS ensembles also tend to like the idea of quite a trough in the East)...

500mb level ...
Image

SFC initializations ...
Image
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#5 Postby freeport_texas2005 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:20 pm

and that means...?
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#6 Postby opera ghost » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:23 pm

freeport_texas2005 wrote:and that means...?


Yes... please- A bit more clear in laymans terms for those of us still learning? I'm pretty good at following along most of the time but when it's just pictures- I'm not there yet with translating the pictures yet.
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:23 pm

freeport_texas2005 wrote:and that means...?


it's NOT moving westward ...
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#8 Postby freeport_texas2005 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:26 pm

hmmmm....well it might not be ur prolly right but from what im seeing it LOOKS like it is...i might be wrong...i prolly am so ...yeah!
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#9 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2004 8:28 pm

If it does get further west than north where currently forecasted by NHC it will only mean one thing, landfall will take place more around MS/AL than FL. It will run into a diving wall once the trough swings down into the western GOM.
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