NHC's Inconsistencies

[Guest]

Below are excerpts from yesterday's TWD & TWO,keep in mind that now they are forecasting this same system to become a hurricane.This is why I mentioned yesterday on the HC Board that NHC is taking a very nonchalant approach to this system.If I knew that this system had potential as early as Saturday when I thought it should have at least been mentioned in the TWO & started a thread about it here then why did'nt they.IMO this type of inconsistency from the official source of hurricanes is unacceptable.

A PRESSURE MINIMUM IS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE N/NW OF THE LOW SINCE YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-14.5N BETWEEN 49W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 53W-58W. HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCIDENTALLY...SURFACE PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

This was yesterday morning & afternoon folks.

[MWatkins]

I think all this demonstrates is how little is truely known about the factors that lead to intensification.

But then again...the 10:30PM TWO last night said there were no signs of organization with 3 while...heck...it was clearly getting better organzied last night.

Hmmmm. circular logic is logic that is circular.

MW

[Guest]

I agree there MW I was noticing the organization since Sat,sure it was merely a cloud swirl with some scattered T-storm activity but it was there & last night like you said you can see it taking on the look of a system on its way.

& now they are bent on blowing the forecast track too as I'm sorry the TD is almost west of Barbados not SW of there.

[Dean4Storms]

I think I was one of the first to pose the question in a thread on here somewhere that I was surprised this system wasn't even getting a mention in the TWO when you could clearly see a spin when it was near 10n 40w

[Guest]

You me & me both Dean,I know you have a good eye for these things.Here is my suggestion on Sat.

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.p ... 2bdb897be3

Both systems I mentioned Sat on now classified.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, here was my thread on Saturday about TD3.....

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=35605

[Guest]

Yeah You called it 1st J/K

The point is NHC did'nt see it till today??? What the ???

[The Dark Knight]

Yeah, seriously.... If the NHC/TPC notcied that it was develop somewhat... They shouldn't have completely closed the system off......

[stormchazer]

I won't pretend to know enough to judge, but even this morning, TWC was saying no development was forecast. Its a guessing game.

[chadtm80]

MIA.. Every other post from you is to bad mouth the NHC. If you could do better I am sure they are taking applications

[Guest]

Chad;

Nothing I have posted is fabricated,I have even supplied actual excerpts from them to show this..I have just pointed out some inconsistency in their forecasts.Is that not allowed here?If its not allowed then I am sorry I better go back & brush up on my Storm 2k etiquette.

Tell me then what can we do here besides agree with other???It seems anything other than that is a crime!!!

Is NHC funding your site???If not then why so touchy about them getting critisized.Lets face it...They have been asleep @ the wheel lately & their job is to forecast tropical weather..Unfortunately its not mine.

[mf_dolphin]

I guess I would have a different take on the passages you hilighted. With no surface low as they noted, there wasn't a sign of tropical cyclone formation. We all saw the spin but that does not mean anything until a surface low develops. The NHC has to play by all the rules unlike those of us that do this for fun or facination. With no recon and no concrete sign of a closed low I'm surprised they didn't wait until the recon fix tomorrow. What evidence do you have that they blew the call? I haven't seen any reports of west winds or signs of low pressure at the surface. Have you?

What we have a problem with here is not legitimate criticism but outright bashing. Let's keep in mind that things change, that's why they issue multiple forecasts. As to them being asleep at the wheel, I think they have a pretty good record over the last few years.

[chadtm80]

MIA, you remember your thread yesterday as well?? Part of the reason (and a BIG part) as to why we are here is for awareness, and to educate. People need to KNOW TO LISTEN to the NHC. That is why they are there. And you are just getting/giving the opposite affect when you make constant posts about them.. Sends them the wrong message, and drops their trust in the NHC. When the NHC tells them there is a cane bearing down on them and to get out. That is what they need to do. Its also just respect and professional courtesy. There is a reason they are the NHC!

[Guest]

MF Dolphin notice I said "asleep @ the wheel lately".Not asleep for the past few years.But saying until last night that "NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS EXPECTED" & then today a TD forms & is expected to become a hurricane is just something I have never seen before coming from them.Or have I,don't recall right now..They are usually pretty accurate folks.They make mistakes like we all do but these vague discussions & outlooks along with Alex's unexpected explosion not far from shore is what I call asleep @ the wheel lately IMO.Also I don't have a actual recon fix report of a west wind but there is..Just look at that beautiful circulation on satellite,if Bonnie has a west wind believe me this one does.. I can also tell you that as we speak TD 3 is Charley.Of course we have to wait for our friends @ NHC to make it official sometime tomorrow but my eyes don't lie.

Chad.. I doubt that people are going to NOT listen to NHC's forecasts &/or warnings because of my recent threads.Having said that you are one of the admins here & if you say that my threads are negative toward NHC than I will not post such threads here anymore.Not that I was planning to,I would just hope that they are done giving me a reason to.But I'm done with that here none the less reason or no reason.

[Stormchaser16]

Not quite sure if i should throw myself in this but i gotta add my 2 cents......

A comment from the NHC "while development is not likely imminent, there are signs that the system could be getting organized and has the potential for further development" IMO would have been better then stating development is not likely. On the same token that you guys have been saying the NHC are the pros, then why did they not notice the same things that we were noticing? Sat. presentation was getting better at the time, and they should have made note of this, but didnt. I am not out to bash the NHC, but them not expecting anything from the system is a bit discouraging and scary IMO. They have better tools then we do to forecast these things, and they are degreed pros as well(they are the NHC remember, thats why they have their jobs) so on that token, why did they say no development is likely when in fact it was clearly getting better organized. I have seen them say lately "development over the next day or so is possible".... well thats what needed to be said here, and it wasnt. Therefore i must agree with MIA that they were a bit wrong this time, however I must agree with Chad and MF that overall the NHC is usually pretty good, and does not deserve to be bashed.

Oh and Chad, yes we are here to learn, and to be aware, and to take advice from the NHC when something is headed our way, but on the same hand, they also need to let us know if something is developing, what if they had said no development was expected and this thing was in the middle of the GOM headed for land, and then boom, we have a developing Td/TS on our hands in a good environment? In this instance i feel the NHC flawed up a bit, but it will not ruin my impressions of them, Im just worried that if something like this were closer to land, and they made that statement, then bigger problems could have arised.

This is just my 2 cents on the issue

[mf_dolphin]

I'm sorry but just because you think there is a west wind does not mean there actually is. When the system passed the islands I didn't see any reports that would back your assumption up. I also noted none on the visibles. The NHC went with the available information I would bet. I think we all realize that intensity forecasting, especially rapid growth, is the least understood portion of tropical forecasting.. Dr. Lyons and Max Mayfield acknowledged this when they were recent guests on BarometerBob's show. To say they were asleep because of that is both unfair and just plain innaccurate IMO.

[Stormchaser16]

That is a good point MF.....

My only problem with the NHC right now is the wording of the highlighted statement that MIA first posted, read my post above

[vbhoutex]

Stormchaser16 you are right in one aspect of your statement. They do have a lot more tolls than we do to make their judgements. I'm sure they made use of all of them in making their decisions today.

However, we are dealing with two other things here. One is the fact they have certain protocols to follow, which we do not know and we are dealing with real people with real personalities who may see the same thing a little differently. Since they are pros I don't think they have to ask Max Mayfield if he thinks their discussion, outlook, etc. is ok to post. That is part of the reason you will see different takes on basically the same thing by different NHC mets at times.

MIA, I do not know your personal situation, but if you are indeed as good as you think you are at tropical forecasting I would suggest you do whatever you can that is in your power to become an NHC forecaster. They will always need good forecasters. There are many different avenues to accomplish this. Go for it!!!