Simply, don't have the time to write a forecast...I've got to move back into the dorm tomorrow, so I've got to pack everything away. Hopefully, I'll put something out tomorrow morning, and the Internet will work at school.
I'm still very comfortable with about 80kts in 120 hours for our depression in the Carib. Conditions aren't going to be but so favorable for a fair period (48-72 hours) in the middle of a forecast period. The system is going to encounter some tougher westerlies, and don't forget as a side note for now, that there is dry air hanging around.
As for Bonnie, this closed eyewall is quite unusual for the situation (low winds in particular). This is an extremely small system, so it is susceptible to quick changes in intensity either way. Of course, right now, conditions are very favorable for development. But the trough should pull the system north in the next 24 hours, and shear will begin to increase--strengthening will occur, but most would occur quickly. But I wouldn't be too quick to rule out a minimal hurricane before landfall, but I'll stick with a strong tropical storm due to the oncoming conditions.
Quick take on Bonnie and Three
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ncweatherwizard
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Quick take on Bonnie and Three
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