Charley Advisories

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jlauderdal
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Re: Forecast one on Charley!(My forecast)

#221 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:52 am

southerngale wrote:
Matthew5 wrote:I'm going to take a shot at forecasting this!


Tropical storm Charley
Forecast Number 1#
6am est/3am pst
8-10-2004


....Tropical Depression 3 becomes tropical storm Charley.....


The third tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms as of 5am est...The system is moving westward at 24 mph to the west-northwest...At the rate this system is moving, added on top of its large size, is limiting rapid development durning the past 12 hours. In on another note: Most of Monday the system was limited by a western feeder band...That sucked the convection from the center of the system for a better part of the day...Later last night into this morning this feeder band has faded away allowling the central core to form a Cdo. Because of no obs with in the area the location of the LLCC is being based on Satellite. Night time Visible shows that the low level center might be on the northeastern side of the large ball of convection with the MLC around the center around 80 miles apart...The LLCC could just as likely be stacked but that will be looked into when the recon gets into the system this afternoon.

Over the short term the system has started to develop a feeder band on its western quad...Also inflow on the south/southeast is perfect for a tropical cyclone to bomb...The western in northern seems only fair...

The Enviroment around this system seems to be very favable with shear less then 5 to 10 knots of shear...With a upper level high forming right over the tropical cyclone...Shear out ahead of this could not be more favable. This being said with water temperatures around 78 degrees to 84 degrees a Isabel or Lili class storm could form over the next 72 hours. The ouflow forming channels are perfect for a system to come together fast.

Track
The current movement is to the west-northwest which this system should stay on that track for the next 24 to 36 hours...42 to 48 hours a track just to the south of Jamica seems likely. The models over the last few runs(GFDL in other hurricane track model have shifted slightly south or left) Around 96 hours I expect this storm to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane.


Forecast winds
Now(3am pst,6am est) 40 mph 1007 millibars
6(9am pst,12pm est) 45 mph 1005 millibars
12(9pm pst,12am est) 55 mph 1003 millibars
24(3am pst,6am est) 60 mph 997 millibars
36(9am pst,12pm est) 70 mph 993 millibars
48(9pm pst,12am est) 85 mph 987 millibars
60(9am pst,12pm est) 95 mph 982 millibars
72(9pm pst,12am est) 105 mph 972 millibars
84(9am pst,12pm est) 110 mph 965 millibars
96(9pm pst,12am est) 90 mph 978 millibars(Moving over the northern yact)
Long range forecast...
108(9am pst,12pm est) 105 mph 974 millibars(Central Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/90 west)
120 hours(9pm pst,12am est) 125 mph 955 millibars(Nearing the texas in La boarder)

Forecaster Matthew


Nearing the Texas/Louisiana border at 125mph? Are you crazy? Take that back!



hehe j/k...we all know that most forecasts this far out don't verify. ;)
'
Exactly, as i stated yesterday the best place to be is in the bullseye on a 5 day track, i believe the average 5 day error according to NHC is at least 200 miles. Anyone have the exact stat on that?
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#222 Postby Dave C » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:58 am

Bonnie's small size would probably keep any churning localized to a small area. Just my opinion.
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#223 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:15 am

The 5-day position has it only a couple of hundred miles off Southeast Louisiana at 80 kt(which we all know is probably low, but that is up from the previous advisory).

Charley looks pretty good this morning.
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#224 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:18 am

Are you discounting what the NHC said about dry air ahead? I'll say Cat. 1 at landfall (that at least seems inevitable), Fla. panhandle, and straight through Ga. to the Atlantic, reforming off the coast to ravage N.C., just for fun.
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#225 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:24 am

Yes he sure does look pretty good!
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#226 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:02 am

Hurrilurker wrote:Are you discounting what the NHC said about dry air ahead? I'll say Cat. 1 at landfall (that at least seems inevitable), Fla. panhandle, and straight through Ga. to the Atlantic, reforming off the coast to ravage N.C., just for fun.


I think your referring to Bonnie.
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Re: Charley Track Shifts Left

#227 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:04 am

southerngale wrote:From the 5am discussion:
Most track guidance indicates that this west-northwestward motion should continue for about the next two days...with steering provided by the subtropical ridge centered north of the Greater Antilles. However...the models diverge thereafter as Charley reaches a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. While the NOGAPS...GFDL...and UKMET now take the system over the Yucatan Peninsula...well to the left of the previous forecast...the GFS takes Charley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico at days four and five. Given the wide spread...the official forecast is nudged only slightly to the left of the previous forecast...and a little faster given the current motion.


Just a question...
If it does indeed track more to the left, would whatever was going to cause that turn back to the right still likely occur?


It could, but if it turns later, it would hit land farther west. All of this is HIGHLY speculative at this point. The average track error for Day 5 is 300 MILES. I think all that is safe to assume right now is that Charley will be a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
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Charley And West Central Fl.

#228 Postby TampaFl » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:22 am

Could be an interesting weekend here in West Central and the Nature Coast of Fl depending on the future track of Charley.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

FLZ049>052-055>057-101530-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF AND BAY BREEZES
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...AND MANATEE
COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF POLK...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE LITTLE...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS HIGH WHERE STRONGER CELLS FORM. RAIN TOTALS IN SUCH
STORMS COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES. UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AREAL
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS.

SOME RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD...AND OTHERS ARE RUNNING HIGH. ANY STORM
WHICH DROPS HEAVY RAINFALL IN A RIVER BASIN IN OR NEAR FLOOD COULD
CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

...POTENTIAL MARINE AND LAND HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND...

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL INLAND AS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THEN ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THOUGH CHARLEY'S FUTURE
TRACK IN IS UNCERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT SEAS AND SWELLS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK...LAND RESIDENTS OF
THE NATURE COAST MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED :eek: :eek: :eek: .

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE WEEKEND PENDING THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLEY. :eek: :eek: :eek:

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE).
FOR FLOOD INFORMATION...CHECK THE FOLLOWING:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?TBW
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...CHECK
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)
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#229 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:35 am

It SHOULD be closely monitored. It's one of these storms because of it's fast motion that may catch people offguard. People will look at the satellite this morning and saw "Oh that's way over there in the Eastern Caribbean" but the motion is nearly 25 mph.
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#230 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:46 am

We are still far enough out that it is in the "everyone from Tampico to the Keys" should be watching Charley...This one has the chance to be large enough to affect quite a bit of the GC...Not as large as Carla, but maybe close??
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Guys...I really don't like this--Charley Forecast 2

#231 Postby ncweatherwizard » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:50 am

Yesterday, I said I felt comfortable with 85kts at the end of the forecast period. Well 120 hours has now become 96 hours, and I'm still good with that, but this may have the opportunity to explode in the GOM in 120 hours from now, and there's no telling where this is going to go.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... arley.html
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12:00 UTC models for Charley=Ships up to 100Kts

#232 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 am

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Select TD3 at menu there and you will see the grafic of the 12:00 UTC run.I know that many of you will not like the tracks of the models.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#233 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:56 am

Whoa, I'm not liking that.
Last edited by caneman on Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#234 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:59 am

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

This is getting a little too close for comfort, OK?

Image

I'm straight north of most of the model tracks(NW of the LBAR). I'm at the far northern edge of that map.
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#235 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:00 am

Brent wrote::eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

This is getting a little too close for comfort, OK?


its coming to bama...lol
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#236 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:00 am

Has anybody been able to get the model runs for Bonnie?
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#237 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:02 am

Thunder44 wrote:Has anybody been able to get the model runs for Bonnie?


Image
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#238 Postby BonesXL » Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:02 am

Could the panhandle get slam twice? Never heard of any area getting hitting by a storm twice in the same season. Met's in So. Fla. are very concerned.
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#239 Postby Anonymous » Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:03 am

Looks like Models are now shifting right of the NHC track for charley...Wouldnt be surprised to see NHC track shift back to the right as well :eek:
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#240 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 10, 2004 8:03 am

BonesXL wrote:Could the panhandle get slam twice? Never heard of any area getting hitting by a storm twice in the same season. Met's in So. Fla. are very concerned.


They very well should be. The way the pattern/ trough is set there is much higher than normal chance of this occuring
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