Bonnie Advisories

[Stormcenter]

Nothing much to Bonnie...50kt storm at landfall. It may get a tad stronger, but it would have to intensify very soon; I'm more lenient toward the storm being 50kts greatest at landfall. Will be briefly rough conditions somewhere along the coast Thursday, but do mind this is a really small storm.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

Have you seen the latest satellite images? She needs to start
turning soon if she wants to hit the Fl. panhandle.

[Dean4Storms]

I hope you are right but I question your intensity forecast a bit. The shear is forecasted to lessen over the next 24 hrs or so just as the center of Bonnie gets over the 90 degree SST's. Also, as Bonnie picks up speed to the NE she could limit the impact of the shear being that she is moving along with it, much like Earl from 99 which made landfall as a 100 mph hurricane just east of Panama City as he was a small storm that got caught up in a trough much like Bonnie is expected to do.

[ncweatherwizard]

Nothing much to Bonnie...50kt storm at landfall. It may get a tad stronger, but it would have to intensify very soon; I'm more lenient toward the storm being 50kts greatest at landfall. Will be briefly rough conditions somewhere along the coast Thursday, but do mind this is a really small storm.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

Have you seen the latest satellite images? She needs to start
turning soon if she wants to hit the Fl. panhandle.

Look at the forecast.

[HouTXmetro]

WNW or NW?I know IR imagery can be deceiving but I just don't see a NW movement. It also appears her forward speed has increased. Is the approaching front weakining also? Your thoughts please.

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing much to Bonnie...50kt storm at landfall. It may get a tad stronger, but it would have to intensify very soon; I'm more lenient toward the storm being 50kts greatest at landfall. Will be briefly rough conditions somewhere along the coast Thursday, but do mind this is a really small storm.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

Have you seen the latest satellite images? She needs to start
turning soon if she wants to hit the Fl. panhandle.

Actually, it appears that she has started a more northerly turn the last couple of hours.

[Stormcenter]

WNW or NW?I know IR imagery can be deceiving but I just don't see a NW movement. It also appears her forward speed has increased. Is the approaching front weakining also? Your thoughts please.

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In my opinion you are correct on both points.

[freeport_texas2005]

I agree 100%

[Brent]

Trust me... it will turn. It is not going to Texas.

[Stormcenter]

Nothing much to Bonnie...50kt storm at landfall. It may get a tad stronger, but it would have to intensify very soon; I'm more lenient toward the storm being 50kts greatest at landfall. Will be briefly rough conditions somewhere along the coast Thursday, but do mind this is a really small storm.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

Have you seen the latest satellite images? She needs to start
turning soon if she wants to hit the Fl. panhandle.

Look at the forecast.

My apologies.

[ncweatherwizard]

I hope you are right but I question your intensity forecast a bit. The shear is forecasted to lessen over the next 24 hrs or so just as the center of Bonnie gets over the 90 degree SST's. Also, as Bonnie picks up speed to the NE she could limit the impact of the shear being that she is moving along with it, much like Earl from 99 which made landfall as a 100 mph hurricane just east of Panama City as he was a small storm that got caught up in a trough much like Bonnie is expected to do.

It is possible that Bonnie could intensify more than 50kts, but still, it needs to be done shortly whatever intensification is done...if it hits more favorable conditions for just a few hours, it could intensify up to 60kts persay due to its small size.

[ncweatherwizard]

Nothing much to Bonnie...50kt storm at landfall. It may get a tad stronger, but it would have to intensify very soon; I'm more lenient toward the storm being 50kts greatest at landfall. Will be briefly rough conditions somewhere along the coast Thursday, but do mind this is a really small storm.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... onnie.html

Have you seen the latest satellite images? She needs to start
turning soon if she wants to hit the Fl. panhandle.

Look at the forecast.

My apologies.

No problem.

[boca]

the flow off of Texas is west to East so who knows

[GalvestonDuck]

Now I know Bonnie supposed to eventually turn north and then NE but after looking at this morning satellite not only is she still moving on a more westerly but at what looks like a quicker speed. I would be concerned if I live from SE La. to the AL. border. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

One of the many not-so-scientific met things I've learned from both mets and members here at S2K -- weather is never "supposed to" do anything. I think it was Derek (sorry if I'm wrong) who vented last year about how people say "It's supposed to rain today." It might be forecast to rain, but the weather is going to do whatever the darn well heck it pleases. Of course, I'm just as guilty of saying "supposed to" because that's common usage for when we talk with friends and neighbors about what the weather might be like for the day. We're simply used to saying it that way.

And one of the many met things I've learned here is that models can change drastically and so can forecast paths. You can put your finger down on your desk and draw a line that goes up towards the top left corner and then curves around and goes up to the top right corner. You can do it 10 different times and never draw the line in the exact same location, even though it's pretty much the same line. In kind of an amatuer way of understanding it, I think the models are like that. Just look at the archive of Claudette's forecast path http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/CL ... hics.shtml (especially from Frame #13 - July 11, 2003, 4 PM) until landfall. The "path" (the line) was almost similar in almost all of the graphics that followed. However, the actual position of the storm kept changing. She was "supposed to" turn west, but she kept going just a little bit further north and landfall was "supposed to" be at the TX/MX border (even as late as 7/13), but that soon changed as she did what she wanted to do and made landfall on the central TX coast on 7/15).

Two days made a heck of a difference. I won't even begin to tell you how bad it was to watch Lili come so close.

It can be a roller coaster ride to watch these things (excitement, fear, excitement...up, down, up, down). Unfortunately, storms don't stay on track as well as roller coasters.

[Dean4Storms]

She is now showing signs of a turn more NW which should become more northerly as the day wears on. You guys will miss this one.

[Stormcenter]

She is now showing signs of a turn more NW which should become more northerly as the day wears on. You guys will miss this one.

I disgree. Click on the loop below
and look at the center closely and don't look at the thunderstorm convection blowing up. You may want to speed up the loop to see it better. It's obvious she is moving on a more westerly course but hey we all see things differently so
if you think it's going NW so be it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[corpusbreeze]

But beware of small storms, if you are the unfortunate to be 10 to 20 miles from the eye wall at landfall the word small will have a new meaning.

[HouTXmetro]

She is now showing signs of a turn more NW which should become more northerly as the day wears on. You guys will miss this one.

I disgree. Click on the loop below
and look at the center closely and don't look at the thunderstorm convection blowing up. You may want to speed up the loop to see it better. It's obvious she is moving on a more westerly course but hey we all see things differently so
if you think it's going NW so be it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm no expert when it comes to looking at images. But based off that loop I guess I do see a NW-NNW movement.... H ell, I don't know what I'm seeing!!!!!

[rbaker]

as Dr. lyons said last night small systems can become big ones, and this one is growing in size as I write this reply. Also last recon was 1003mb, so may be strenghtening.

[tailgater]

The system might not be getting any stronger yet there is a out flow boundary on the NE side which isn't a sign of intensification which could allow a more westward track I think?

[caneman]

She is now showing signs of a turn more NW which should become more northerly as the day wears on. You guys will miss this one.

I disgree. Click on the loop below
and look at the center closely and don't look at the thunderstorm convection blowing up. You may want to speed up the loop to see it better. It's obvious she is moving on a more westerly course but hey we all see things differently so
if you think it's going NW so be it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Take a look at the flow on the Water Vapor. This thing will go East soon. And not get near Texas. IMHO