Double trouble for Florida..?

[Josephine96]

I'm not trying to wishcast but it looks to me like both Bonnie and Charley could have Florida written all over them.

In my opinion.. I think Bonnie could actually make landfall somewhere between Cedar Key and Tampa.

If that occurs.. then Central Florida could get a direct hit from her force.. as a strong TS or even a hurricane if she explodes.

The key with Bonnie is going to be when she makes the N turn. If she starts making it today.. or late tonight.. It could mean the Central to southern part of the Northern peninsula could feel her wrath.

Because once the trough catches Bonnie.. she will shoot off to the NE.

The exact same thing could be setting up for Charley if and when he makes it into the GOM.

If Charley is at a low enough latitude when he gets picked up.. it could be a South or Central Florida storm. He will be the more dangerous of the 2 in my opinion..

I'm also willing to bet that Charley will end our drought of the US not seeing a major hurricane make landfall..

Of course.. my amateur predictions can be taken with a grain of salt.. you decide..

[washington]

I have been on most of the nws discussion and they think florida will be hit twice.

[Josephine96]

That's also what I have heard Washington.. the question is what part of the state..

I'm sticking with my prediction of between Cedar Key and Tampa for Bonnie..

It all depends how early the turn to the N and E begins..

[Steve]

I don't think so. It's too early for Charlie (who's probably a western Gulf threat), but I don't see Bonnie even affecting Tampa unless it pulls a trailing band through later as it heads up the east coast. It's probably going to make landfall between Baldwin Co., AL and Bay Co. FL.

Steve

[washington]

If you look at the track of past storms they tend to cross over the cedar key or tampa area. I am in North FL it has to be a very strong cold front for it to push it up this way. I mean if it comes up towards tally area it can not feel the effects of the front until the last min.

[Josephine96]

Washington.. You're right about that..There are several storms I've seen the last few years that have come this way as a result of the slingshot by a cold front.

I remember Gabrielle which hit in 2001.. right after 9/11.. but because of 9/11.. my local media got caught off guard and she caused a tornado outbreak in Brevard County.

My worry with Bonnie is that she'll explode before she comes this way.. if she decides to do so..

[caneman]

I don't think so. It's too early for Charlie (who's probably a western Gulf threat), but I don't see Bonnie even affecting Tampa unless it pulls a trailing band through later as it heads up the east coast. It's probably going to make landfall between Baldwin Co., AL and Bay Co. FL.

Steve

HAve to disagree with you on Charlie. Looks to me to be a Ms/AL/ Panhandle threat. As of the 11:00 advisory that is the track it is still on.

[Josephine96]

Remember.. it's still too early to decide on Charley.. Bonnie is the main threat as she is probably 3 days away.. maybe even sooner if she accelerates

[washington]

I see your point also but i am going with florida, if Bonine comes towards florida later on in the forecast period that is where the weakness will be so i am taking towards FL but I could be wrong.

[Josephine96]

I'm still thinking Florida too.. But we have to watch and see what happens with Bonnie 1st

[washington]

When you have a powerfull hurricane in the gulf like charley will be, it always follows the weaknes in the gulf and if that front comes towards FL or GA like most of the models say then it willl follow the front it will begin to pull the system to the ne and ene.

[Josephine96]

Good point wash..

I'm eagerly awaiting to see what Bonnie does.. plus I'll watching the Noon news to see what our local mets think..

I hate to repeat myself lol.. but Cedar Key to Tampa is probably a better bet than the Panhandle for Bonnie..

Why? When the trough picks it up and moves the storm to the NE or even ENE.. that will also cause the storm to accelerate.. and judging by where the storm is currently positioned.. I'd say it has a better chance of the Peninsula than the Panhandle..

[Steve]

It's all good. Everyone's got an opinion. Whether or not there is a weakness or if the trof lifts out is the key. We'll know more by the weekend. I agree that for now, Bonnie is the main threat. But it'd be tough to get it down to the central peninsula.

Steve

[Brent]

On Charley...

While the latest NHC track shows Charley a significant threat to MS/AL/FL Panhandle, remember: 5 days out, the average error is 300 miles. I'm not saying the NHC is wrong, I'm just saying it could change.

Personally, I think both Bonnie and Charley will hit the Panhandle. Bonnie closer to PC and Tallahassee, Charley towards Pensacola.

[Steve]

You could be right Brent. I think it's all in the timing and the setup of the next pattern following the front. It's either going to stall and move west or stall (or not) and head up north. In my mind, the 1st is likely. You like the second. A friendly wager?

Steve

[Brent]

You could be right Brent. I think it's all in the timing and the setup of the next pattern following the front. It's either going to stall and move west or stall (or not) and head up north. In my mind, the 1st is likely. You like the second. A friendly wager?

Steve

I'm leaning that way because all of the computer models show it(some a little sooner or a little later in the turn, but the same general thing).