what you are seeing is on southern side clouds outflowed or even a moderate east shear, the center is where the burst of convection is located. Go to the geostationary sat pic for closer look and you will see more nw movement now. Just to the north flow is defin. w to e so, it may be getting to the lat. of that turn they expect. The models have been consistant on this turn.
Water vapor shows a trough coming down east-west oriented but sinking south, how far south who knows. Apparently nhc thinks this is the turning mechanism. If the storm grows upper levels will take control of the storm. If not, 50 pct chance or better it could stay on more westerly course.
Bonnie Advisories
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Andrew92
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Bonnie 11 AM discussion
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data this morning indicate Bonnie
has maintained a tight inner-core wind field...despite the
northerly shear affecting the cyclone. Dropsonde data near the
center indicated 70 kt winds just a couple hundred feet above the
surface with surface winds of around 51 kt. A second dropsonde also
missed the center and reported a surface pressure of 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is set at a conservative 50 kt for this advisory
and the pressure is 1002 mb...a little below the measured pressure.
The initial motion estimate is 310/07. Morning 12z upper-air data
indicate that a break in the Gulf of Mexico mid-level ridge has
occurred at 500 mb...while a shortwave trough has pushed into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico...with increasing northwesterly flow
behind the trough over Texas and Louisiana. This should result in a
gradual slowing of the forward speed and a turn more toward the
north later today. This is consistent with previous forecasts...and
is also consistent with the NHC model guidance. By 36-48 hours...a
second and stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. The increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of that trough should act to accelerate Bonnie to the
northeast with landfall occurring in the Florida Panhandle in 48-60
hours. The official forecast track is just an extension of the
previous track through 36 hours...and then faster and to the right
after that. A 96-hour position was added for continuity since the
Bonnie circulation may become a significant extratropical low close
to the U.S. East Coast after 72 hours.
Bonnie is expected to remain a small tropical cyclone throughout the
period...which may result in rapid intensity fluctuations. However
...The current northerly shear is expected to change to light
westerly shear by 36 hours as Bonnie passes over or near a warm
Eddy in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This may allow for some
significant strengthening to occur until strong southwesterly shear
kicks in around 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast and the latest SHIPS intensity forecast...
but is much lower than the GFDL model which makes Bonnie a 102 kt
Major hurricane at landfall. The GFDL solution is being discounted
at this time since it rapidly intensifies Bonnie in between 36 to
48 hours...in the face of 50-60 kt upper-level southwesterly winds.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct a mission in the environment of
Bonnie this evening to improve the initial condition for the
numerical track guidance models. A special thanks to the Gulf of
Mexico NWS offices...and inland wfo Fort Worth and wfo Norman...for
the 6 hourly upper-air observations to help improve the forecasts.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/1500z 24.2n 90.6w 50 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 25.0n 90.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 26.2n 90.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 27.4n 89.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 29.5n 86.2w 70 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 35.5n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/1200z 49.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1200z...absorbed by front or extratropical low
$$
has maintained a tight inner-core wind field...despite the
northerly shear affecting the cyclone. Dropsonde data near the
center indicated 70 kt winds just a couple hundred feet above the
surface with surface winds of around 51 kt. A second dropsonde also
missed the center and reported a surface pressure of 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is set at a conservative 50 kt for this advisory
and the pressure is 1002 mb...a little below the measured pressure.
The initial motion estimate is 310/07. Morning 12z upper-air data
indicate that a break in the Gulf of Mexico mid-level ridge has
occurred at 500 mb...while a shortwave trough has pushed into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico...with increasing northwesterly flow
behind the trough over Texas and Louisiana. This should result in a
gradual slowing of the forward speed and a turn more toward the
north later today. This is consistent with previous forecasts...and
is also consistent with the NHC model guidance. By 36-48 hours...a
second and stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. The increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of that trough should act to accelerate Bonnie to the
northeast with landfall occurring in the Florida Panhandle in 48-60
hours. The official forecast track is just an extension of the
previous track through 36 hours...and then faster and to the right
after that. A 96-hour position was added for continuity since the
Bonnie circulation may become a significant extratropical low close
to the U.S. East Coast after 72 hours.
Bonnie is expected to remain a small tropical cyclone throughout the
period...which may result in rapid intensity fluctuations. However
...The current northerly shear is expected to change to light
westerly shear by 36 hours as Bonnie passes over or near a warm
Eddy in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This may allow for some
significant strengthening to occur until strong southwesterly shear
kicks in around 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast and the latest SHIPS intensity forecast...
but is much lower than the GFDL model which makes Bonnie a 102 kt
Major hurricane at landfall. The GFDL solution is being discounted
at this time since it rapidly intensifies Bonnie in between 36 to
48 hours...in the face of 50-60 kt upper-level southwesterly winds.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct a mission in the environment of
Bonnie this evening to improve the initial condition for the
numerical track guidance models. A special thanks to the Gulf of
Mexico NWS offices...and inland wfo Fort Worth and wfo Norman...for
the 6 hourly upper-air observations to help improve the forecasts.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/1500z 24.2n 90.6w 50 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 25.0n 90.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 26.2n 90.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 27.4n 89.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 29.5n 86.2w 70 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 35.5n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/1200z 49.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1200z...absorbed by front or extratropical low
$$
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Brent
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11am Bonnie-60 mph winds
and that may be too low they say. Brings it up to 80 mph before landfall now. 
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 10, 2004
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data this morning indicate Bonnie
has maintained a tight inner-core wind field...despite the
northerly shear affecting the cyclone. Dropsonde data near the
center indicated 70 kt winds just a couple hundred feet above the
surface with surface winds of around 51 kt. A second dropsonde also
missed the center and reported a surface pressure of 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is set at a conservative 50 kt for this advisory
and the pressure is 1002 mb...a little below the measured pressure.
The initial motion estimate is 310/07. Morning 12z upper-air data
indicate that a break in the Gulf of Mexico mid-level ridge has
occurred at 500 mb...while a shortwave trough has pushed into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico...with increasing northwesterly flow
behind the trough over Texas and Louisiana. This should result in a
gradual slowing of the forward speed and a turn more toward the
north later today. This is consistent with previous forecasts...and
is also consistent with the NHC model guidance. By 36-48 hours...a
second and stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. The increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of that trough should act to accelerate Bonnie to the
northeast with landfall occurring in the Florida Panhandle in 48-60
hours. The official forecast track is just an extension of the
previous track through 36 hours...and then faster and to the right
after that. A 96-hour position was added for continuity since the
Bonnie circulation may become a significant extratropical low close
to the U.S. East Coast after 72 hours.
Bonnie is expected to remain a small tropical cyclone throughout the
period...which may result in rapid intensity fluctuations. However
...The current northerly shear is expected to change to light
westerly shear by 36 hours as Bonnie passes over or near a warm
Eddy in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This may allow for some
significant strengthening to occur until strong southwesterly shear
kicks in around 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast and the latest SHIPS intensity forecast...
but is much lower than the GFDL model which makes Bonnie a 102 kt
Major hurricane at landfall. The GFDL solution is being discounted
at this time since it rapidly intensifies Bonnie in between 36 to
48 hours...in the face of 50-60 kt upper-level southwesterly winds.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct a mission in the environment of
Bonnie this evening to improve the initial condition for the
numerical track guidance models. A special thanks to the Gulf of
Mexico NWS offices...and inland wfo Fort Worth and wfo Norman...for
the 6 hourly upper-air observations to help improve the forecasts.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/1500z 24.2n 90.6w 50 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 25.0n 90.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 26.2n 90.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 27.4n 89.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 29.5n 86.2w 70 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 35.5n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/1200z 49.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1200z...absorbed by front or extratropical low
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 10, 2004
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data this morning indicate Bonnie
has maintained a tight inner-core wind field...despite the
northerly shear affecting the cyclone. Dropsonde data near the
center indicated 70 kt winds just a couple hundred feet above the
surface with surface winds of around 51 kt. A second dropsonde also
missed the center and reported a surface pressure of 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is set at a conservative 50 kt for this advisory
and the pressure is 1002 mb...a little below the measured pressure.
The initial motion estimate is 310/07. Morning 12z upper-air data
indicate that a break in the Gulf of Mexico mid-level ridge has
occurred at 500 mb...while a shortwave trough has pushed into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico...with increasing northwesterly flow
behind the trough over Texas and Louisiana. This should result in a
gradual slowing of the forward speed and a turn more toward the
north later today. This is consistent with previous forecasts...and
is also consistent with the NHC model guidance. By 36-48 hours...a
second and stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
western and central Gulf of Mexico. The increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of that trough should act to accelerate Bonnie to the
northeast with landfall occurring in the Florida Panhandle in 48-60
hours. The official forecast track is just an extension of the
previous track through 36 hours...and then faster and to the right
after that. A 96-hour position was added for continuity since the
Bonnie circulation may become a significant extratropical low close
to the U.S. East Coast after 72 hours.
Bonnie is expected to remain a small tropical cyclone throughout the
period...which may result in rapid intensity fluctuations. However
...The current northerly shear is expected to change to light
westerly shear by 36 hours as Bonnie passes over or near a warm
Eddy in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This may allow for some
significant strengthening to occur until strong southwesterly shear
kicks in around 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast and the latest SHIPS intensity forecast...
but is much lower than the GFDL model which makes Bonnie a 102 kt
Major hurricane at landfall. The GFDL solution is being discounted
at this time since it rapidly intensifies Bonnie in between 36 to
48 hours...in the face of 50-60 kt upper-level southwesterly winds.
The NOAA G-IV jet will conduct a mission in the environment of
Bonnie this evening to improve the initial condition for the
numerical track guidance models. A special thanks to the Gulf of
Mexico NWS offices...and inland wfo Fort Worth and wfo Norman...for
the 6 hourly upper-air observations to help improve the forecasts.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 10/1500z 24.2n 90.6w 50 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 25.0n 90.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 26.2n 90.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 27.4n 89.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 29.5n 86.2w 70 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 35.5n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/1200z 49.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1200z...absorbed by front or extratropical low
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#neversummer
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dixiebreeze
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T # 2.5/2.5 for Bonnie and Charley.....
Pretty much as expected, considering their present status.
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dixiebreeze
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Brent
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- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on August 10, 2004
...Bonnie continues to slowly strengthen as it drifts northwestward
over the central Gulf of Mexico...
interests in the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico
should closely monitor the progress of Bonnie.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 24.2 north...longitude 90.6 west or about
350 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Bonnie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A gradual
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north is expected
later today or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Bonnie remains a very small tropical storm and tropical storm force
winds only extend outward up to 30 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.2 N... 90.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on August 10, 2004
...Bonnie continues to slowly strengthen as it drifts northwestward
over the central Gulf of Mexico...
interests in the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico
should closely monitor the progress of Bonnie.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 24.2 north...longitude 90.6 west or about
350 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Bonnie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A gradual
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north is expected
later today or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Bonnie remains a very small tropical storm and tropical storm force
winds only extend outward up to 30 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...24.2 N... 90.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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#neversummer
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Josephine96
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jlauderdal
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ColdFront77
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Derek Ortt
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ColdFront77
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Stormcenter
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Turn
ColdFront77 wrote:Does everyone think the further west Bonnie gets, contrary to the current forecast track, the less likely a turn
to the NW, NNW, N, NNE and/or NE would cause her to make landfall further westward then generally expected?
The further west she goes the more likely she will make her first landfall somewhere in the central GOM area (MS/AL coastline). But there is no doubt she will turn NE eventually it's a matter of when she will.
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