Bonnie Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

what you are seeing is on southern side clouds outflowed or even a moderate east shear, the center is where the burst of convection is located. Go to the geostationary sat pic for closer look and you will see more nw movement now. Just to the north flow is defin. w to e so, it may be getting to the lat. of that turn they expect. The models have been consistant on this turn.
Water vapor shows a trough coming down east-west oriented but sinking south, how far south who knows. Apparently nhc thinks this is the turning mechanism. If the storm grows upper levels will take control of the storm. If not, 50 pct chance or better it could stay on more westerly course.

Very good analysis, rbaker!!

[Dean4Storms]

Like I said earlier, it is moving NW and even slowing. Expect it to make more of a turn north now.

[ColdFront77]

A 15 to 20 mph tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is quite fast for the low latitudes with a frontal system or not. Frontal systems this time of year (especially) are weak and/or weakening rapidly -- just like the last one; interestingly the boundary is still trying to hang on and then actually "grew westward" all the way to Texas.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! It's coming right for us!!

[Josephine96]

LOL Mary.. Yes it is..

[Brent]

A 15 to 20 mph tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is quite fast for the low latitudes with a frontal system or not. Frontal systems this time of year (especially) are weak and/or weakening rapidly -- just like the last one; interestingly the boundary is still trying to hang on and then actually "grew westward" all the way to Texas.

Opal in 1995 moved at 20-25 mph, remained a hurricane into the Northern part of Alabama, we had 90 mph gusts here. I hope Charley isn't a repeat of that.

[Stormcenter]

O.K. there is a lot of discussion as to where Bonnie is currently moving. Well below is a satellite link that I think leaves no doubt. The thing to note is you need to locate the center first of all and then speed the loop, simple as that.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Dan]

Does everyone think the further west Bonnie gets, contrary to the current forecast track, the less likely a turn
to the NW, NNW, N, NNE and/or NE would cause her to make landfall further westward then generally expected?

the longer that Bonnie shows any westward movement, whether that is NW or WNW, the more likely it will come ashore farther west along the gulf coast.

The NHC is still conifdent on a Florida Panhandle landfall, you can tell that by looking at the forecast track. But, if that is to indeed occur, Bonnie is going to have to starting going in a Northeast direction in the next 12-18 hours, or it may not be able to recurve quick enough to hit Florida. I'm thinking at this time that an Alabama or maybe Mississippi landfall could occur. Look for NHC to adjust theit forecast track quite a bit at the 5pm advisory, especially compared to the 11am track and especailly because they are sending a plane out to investigate the atmosphere surrounding the storm.

[rockyman]

Depending on your point of view...this could be good news or bad news

Looking at the latest visible loops, the center of Bonnie appears to be moving north while the convection is still moving NW...the center could pop out soon around 25N...if this happens, we could see temporary weakening...although it could still regenerate if the shear lessens for a little while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Does anyone else see this?

[Josephine96]

If that were to happen.. and a new center forms.. then who knows what happens

[Stormcenter]

Depending on your point of view...this could be good news or bad news

Looking at the latest visible loops, the center of Bonnie appears to be moving north while the convection is still moving NW...the center could pop out soon around 25N...if this happens, we could see temporary weakening...although it could still regenerate if the shear lessens for a little while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Does anyone else see this?

Check this satellite loop out you can still see a NW or WNW movement to Bonnie. You want to speed up the loop.
The center doesn't look exposed. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Thunder44]

Yeah, I see it but I also see a new batch of thunderstorms begining to developing SE of the LLC. It's been under some Northerly shear, but it has been able to maintain itself and even get a little stronger.

[dixiebreeze]

in this latest IR view:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Could be shearing or possibly just one of those weakening periods.

[Josephine96]

Nice shot Dixie.. by the way.. where do you think Bonnie will go..?

[rbaker]

affirmative on the center moving north away from convection, even outflow boundaries are shooting away from convection center. Northerly wind shear has been a hinder to the system since it entered the gom. Will have to see how this plays out this afternoon, but right now that's a weakening phase.

[vbhoutex]

Bonnie has indeed begun her North turn. That is obvious by her latest coordinates. Recon is with this storm almost constantly and are keeping close tabs on it. The coordinates we are getting are not guesses from satellite, they are from recon. And satellite pics can decieve you no matter how good you think you are at analyzing them. IMHO, Texas is quite safe with Bonnie and probably Charley too, but that is 5 days down the road and a lot could change. What concerns me about Bonnie is that she is just about over the deep hot water pool in the GOM and we could see some rapid intensification, especially with the slow speed she is currently traveling.

[dixiebreeze]

Well, John, I hope she dissipates since I'm flying NW from Tampa Thursday a.m., but I expect she will end up somewhere in the Panhandle.

[Stormchaser16]

CLEARLY the center is moving north away from the convection, clearly and obviously exposed ATT

[Josephine96]

Another 1 for the Panhandle consensus huh lol..

[Thunder44]

You can see it better in this pic

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

They shear is probably affecting it more now because the storm starting to turn more towards the North.