Dan wrote:the longer that Bonnie shows any westward movement, whether that is NW or WNW, the more likely it will come ashore farther west along the gulf coast.
The NHC is still conifdent on a Florida Panhandle landfall, you can tell that by looking at the forecast track. But, if that is to indeed occur, Bonnie is going to have to starting going in a Northeast direction in the next 12-18 hours, or it may not be able to recurve quick enough to hit Florida. I'm thinking at this time that an Alabama or maybe Mississippi landfall could occur. Look for NHC to adjust theit forecast track quite a bit at the 5pm advisory, especially compared to the 11am track and especailly because they are sending a plane out to investigate the atmosphere surrounding the storm.
Dan, I feel the majority here agrees with you. IMO, the system's turns "can easily" cause a landfall around the same place, be it more likely further west
and potentially east, it obviously depends on things around which means a further westward movement now really shouldn't ultimately determine where the
system tracks from this point forward.
