Bonnie Advisories

[Thunder44]

They are not due in there until about 4pm or 5pm.

[cycloneye]

Yes they are making a quick pass to Bonnie before they continue eastward.

[ColdFront77]

Is a rare for the same plane to investigate two systems in the same day?

[Dean4Storms]

Her center is under northerly shear right now from that upper-level anticyclonic flow off to her west. Looking at the latest upper air plots and forecasts, it looks like this flow quickly changes to a W-E flow above 25N due to the approaching trough. She may have rough going as she bucks the northerly shear until 25N, after which we may see a rearranging of convection and form as she gains favorable directionality in relation to the upper-level flow.

Exactly and I'll add that once above 25n she should begin a NE turn and dependant upon how fast she moves she could negate alot of the shear until she gets more into the Northern GOM where it will greatly increase and probably begin to weaken her. Even that though will be a race between her speed toward landfall

[Thunder44]

Yes, the center continues to fire off thunderstorms. The northerly shear is not oppressive...not that strong at all. It's only because the system is so small that it's so receptive to these conditions.

True, but the shear is forecast to become much stronger by Thursday and Friday.

The shear would more out the SW. The storm would moving NE, at that time, so it will not impede it.

[Stormchaser16]

Uhhhhh dixiebreeze, the direction of the storm being NE and the shear being out of SW will NOT impede development for this system, regardless of how strong you see the shear becoming.......

During this time it will actually have a quite favorable time to deepen right before landfall.

[WeatherEmperor]

The shear should relax once Bonnie moves just a tad bit more north and who knows maybe even when she begins that turn to the Northeast.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Is a rare for the same plane to investigate two systems in the same day?

Good question Tom and I dont have the answer but I know that someone will answer your question.

[rbaker]

she's defin. a fighter, last few loops shows thunderstorms trying to get back over partially exposed center, that is now moving north or a tad nne, may have been just a temp weaken state. Can tell almost path she may take in front, flow goes sw to ne up in latitude.

[MGC]

Since Bonnie is forecast to effect land in a couple of days I am wondering when and where the watches will be posted. Since there is a rather large swath of coast in the forecast track I am wondering if the NHC is waiting for Bonnie to make the turn....MGC

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 101630
97779 16304 30200 84600 57100 07011 55//1 /4592
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 08

20.0n-84.6w they are moving SE away from the GOM now just east of Cozumel.

[Stormchaser16]

Once the center makes the turn, and shear begins to relax, then id expect it to reorganize, right now it should continue a weakening phase, but i wouldnt write off Bonnie by any means at all. Once northerly shear relaxes, between that time and landfall, she will have favorable oppurtunities to develop further.

[Rainband]

Don't worry stormcenter you'll get a storm eventually. Be careful what you wish for

[Brent]

Is a rare for the same plane to investigate two systems in the same day?

Saves on gas... lol

[michaelwmoss]

My prediction for Bonnie's Landfall:

About 10 Miles Southeast Of Pensecola Florida

Cat 1- 80 mph

Your Predictions?

[Brent]

4pm or 10pm CDT today. It will have to be to have the 36 hour warning.

[Rainband]

Gulfbreeze , Sorry Sand i- 60mph TS

[Agua]

Panama City Beach to Appilachicola, strong Cat 1. (my first landfall prediction)

[Edited to clarify "PCB"]

[Brent]

Pensacola to Cedar Key(I'll narrow it down tomorrow maybe) as a Cat 1, 75-85 mph winds.

[NorthGaWeather]

Mobile Bay, Cat 2