, but I've heard that, "another recon. will investigate Charley..."Bonnie Advisories
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000
URNT11 KNHC 101648
97779 16484 30256 89408 15300 15022 17178 /2554 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 03
This plane is flying into Bonnie now located at 25.6n-89.4w
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Baytown Bug
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Re: Hey!!!
Stormcenter wrote:NorthGaWeather wrote:Mobile Bay, Cat 2
Hey that's my prediction. Good prediction.
Houston, TX. Category 4.
Really....Destin as a Cat 1.
Last edited by Baytown Bug on Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Guest
BONNIE is a BE tropical cyclone
FOLKS
It is looking more and more that my concern yesterday with TPC and Bonnie -- that TPC may have Jumped the gun-- has some validity. BONNIE looks like crap at midday ... more than half of it is it exposed... it is very tiny and the thunderstorm cluster out by 30N and 70W looks better.
Bonnie is clearly NOT a classic tropical system and as she nears the Upper trough and surface front she will become a Hybrid tropical / baroclinic (a Low with warm front and cold fronts ). This is a BE tropical cyclone and like most BE -especially in the Gulf they often do NOT become major events..
see below the dotted line for a reference from DR James Elsner of FSU on tropical cyclone classification
Unless BONNIE really gets its act together she will even up doing more psychological damage than real property damage; the damage will be with the Yahoos in western FL who may end up seeing not much of an event-- with winds gusting to 60 MPH .... and thinking "that wasn't sooooo bad ...I survived another BIG one" ...
=====================================================================
http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/elsner.htm
HURRICANES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC--Climate and Society by James B Elsner and A. Birol Kara ( FSU) published by Oxford University Press 2000. AMAZON.com Link
Differences in North Atlantic tropical cyclone origin and development mechanisms allow a classification that identifies hurricanes by ONTOGENY rather than morphology. (Ontogeny refers to the process of growth). According to this classification, a "tropical-only hurricane" is defined as a hurricane at originates from a tropical wave (or disturbance) and develops to hurricane intensity devoid of enhancing middle latitudes baroclinic influences. This definition does not imply that tropical-only hurricanes are necessarily exempt from interactions with baroclinic weather systems. Often adverse environmental conditions produced by middle-latitude upper-air currents hinder the development of a tropical cyclone (see chapter 1. developing tropical cyclone that begins as a tropical wave and reaches ~ Hurricane strength despite encounters with hostile effects of baroclinic systems is considered a tropical-only hurricane. 0nly if baroclinic influences are such that the aid formation and growth in a situation where otherwise development was unlikely , is the hurricane NOT considered to be tropical only hurricane. It is important to keep in mind that the definition of tropical-only hurricanes is a description based on the process of tropical-cyclone initiation and growth and is distinct from a definition based on form or structure as is the definition of a subtropical storm. The classification of tropical-only hurricanes is motivated by a desire to understand the climatology of North Atlantic hurricanes, and may not be important for forecasting individual hurricane tracks and intensity changes. Moreover, it may not be directly relevant to other tropical-cyclone basins, including the eastern North Pacific.
Since tropical-only hurricanes are defined with respect to their origin and evolution, it serves us well to note that biologists still argue about how to define "species" 135 years after Darwin (Dennett 1995). One must be careful, of course, but it may be best to consider hurricanes as having various origin and development mechanisms. Research has shown (Hess and Elsner 1994a, Hess et al. 1995, Elsner et al. 1996b) that it is useful to consider North Atlantic hurricane activity as the sum of different hurricane type. This distinction allows one to see otherwise hidden structures in the record. Moreover, as noted in Chapter 1, there are studies identifying underlying physical connections that cause some hurricanes to develop under the direct influence of middle-latitude baroclinic dynamics. In the North Atlantic there are basically two distinct mechanisms for the development of TROPICAL ONLY (a.k.a. "TO") Hurricanes. In the eastern and central Atlantic, tropical-only hurricanes originate from tropical waves moving off the west coast of Africa near the islands of Cape Verde (see Figure 2.7). These waves are a product of instabilities in the low-level African easterly jet stream and the resultant hurricanes are traditionally referred to as Cape Verde hurricanes. In the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes sometimes form from disturbances originating in the confluence of the northeast trade winds with air flowing northward across the equator as an extension of the southeast trades of the Southern Hemisphere. This region of confluence is known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and is associated with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Areas of lower pressure within the confluence, or trough axis can lead to a monsoon depression or tropical Low characterized by a significant expanse of scattered deep convection and a large core (no definitive center) of light winds surrounded by bands of much stronger winds. Though more common over the western North Pacific, monsoon depressions, with their quasi- stable configuration of winds and convection, occasionally develop into North Atlantic hurricanes. The ITCZ reaches its most northerly latitude across the eastern North Pa- cific extending into the Caribbean in late summer and early fall. Frequently, when disturbances from the ITCZ reach hurricane strength, they are classified as tropical- only hurricanes. However, it is not uncommon to observe an enhancement of the cross-equatorial flow resulting from a cold front that has plunged southward (called a "norther") through the Gulf of Mexico. In such cases the disturbance may intensify to hurricane force due to a favorable baroclinic environment. These are non-tropical- only hurricanes.
Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricanes
Baroclinically Enhanced hurricanes come in two flavors:
A Hurricane that is born of a tropical wave or disturbance but benefited favorably from Mid latitude baroclinic influences as it intensified to a hurricane strength is considered to be a BE or Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricane.
A hurricane born of non tropical wave or disturbance is considered to be a baroclinically enhanced hurricane; James Elsner of FSU develop a new term for this case "Baroclinically initiated" or BI which should be viewed as a subsection of the BE or Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricane category. Whether or not trough interaction enhances development of a tropical cyclone depends on the breadth and width of the trough & its distance from the storm. Narrow troughs that remain upstream at a distance from the Tropical cyclone can enhance development by providing a more favorable upper-level outflow.
The difference between tropical-only (TO) and some baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes (BE) can be understood as a difference between the level refers to Initial development takes place. Classic tropical-only hurricanes are initially most organized near the surface and develop from the bottom of the atmosphere upward (bottom-up development).
In contrast, baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes and in particularly the BI or Baroclinically Initiated storms begin most energetically aloft and become hurricanes as they develop from the top downward (top-down development.
BI - Baroclinically initiated hurricanes originate in several different ways. The most to common development occurs in conjunction with a middle latitude frontal trough or with the baroclinic trough that extends into the subtropics. If the trough is associated with partially divergent air flow at upper levels, the development of a non-tropical surface, low pressure system is likely. Strengthening and a transformation into a warm-core tropical define depression is possible if the frontal low is situated over warm waters. Baroclinically initiated hurricanes can ONLY occur from the transformation cold Low that becomes "cut -off" from the main jet. Concerning the baroclinically-initiated classification, this is a stratification based on morphology. shape" apt In other words, what is the form or structure of the original disturbance. If it is cold core, then it is baroclinically initiated. There is no requirement to examine any other part of the system.
They form out of the MDR of the tropics, in a marginal SSTs close proximity to middle latitude Jet streaks originates in the subtropical regions.
The idea of dividing North Atlantic hurricane activity into separate subsets, each characterized by unique origins and developmental processes, is an assumption that changes the view of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate. The distinction between tropical-only and baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes can be illustrated with an Example. Frogs are born as tadpoles from eggs, usually laid in water and They grow and develop into adult frogs. This growth and development is called ONTOGENY which refers to the "becoming" of a frog. The class, order, and species is derived largely from morphology. Morphology or form level refers to the structure (being) of the adult frog. A cursory examination of Adult frogs might lead to a classification base on size --- small like the north Florida bog frog (Rana okaloosae) or large like the bullfrog This categorization is based morphology.
It is in this sense that we have classified North Atlantic hurricanes. As one must have a record of temperatures throughout the lifecycle of a frog to classify it as tropical only, one must examine the growth and development of a hurricane from its inception to hurricane intensity to classify it as tropical only or baroclinically enhanced and within that group baroclinically-initiated . The new classification is based on ONTOGENY rather than on morphology. It is necessary to understand this distinction to appreciate the meaning of tropical-only hurricanes. Concerning the baroclinically-initiated classification, this is a stratification based on morphology. shape" apt In other words, what is the form or structure of the original disturbance? .!f it is cold core, then it is baroclinically initiated. There is no requirement to examine any other system. Note that a baroclinically-initiated hurricane is necessarily baroclinically enhanced, since the initiation stage is certainly Part of the lifecycle of a tropical cyclone, just as the egg is the first stage in the lifecycle of a frog.
It is looking more and more that my concern yesterday with TPC and Bonnie -- that TPC may have Jumped the gun-- has some validity. BONNIE looks like crap at midday ... more than half of it is it exposed... it is very tiny and the thunderstorm cluster out by 30N and 70W looks better.
Bonnie is clearly NOT a classic tropical system and as she nears the Upper trough and surface front she will become a Hybrid tropical / baroclinic (a Low with warm front and cold fronts ). This is a BE tropical cyclone and like most BE -especially in the Gulf they often do NOT become major events..
see below the dotted line for a reference from DR James Elsner of FSU on tropical cyclone classification
Unless BONNIE really gets its act together she will even up doing more psychological damage than real property damage; the damage will be with the Yahoos in western FL who may end up seeing not much of an event-- with winds gusting to 60 MPH .... and thinking "that wasn't sooooo bad ...I survived another BIG one" ...
=====================================================================
http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/elsner.htm
HURRICANES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC--Climate and Society by James B Elsner and A. Birol Kara ( FSU) published by Oxford University Press 2000. AMAZON.com Link
Differences in North Atlantic tropical cyclone origin and development mechanisms allow a classification that identifies hurricanes by ONTOGENY rather than morphology. (Ontogeny refers to the process of growth). According to this classification, a "tropical-only hurricane" is defined as a hurricane at originates from a tropical wave (or disturbance) and develops to hurricane intensity devoid of enhancing middle latitudes baroclinic influences. This definition does not imply that tropical-only hurricanes are necessarily exempt from interactions with baroclinic weather systems. Often adverse environmental conditions produced by middle-latitude upper-air currents hinder the development of a tropical cyclone (see chapter 1. developing tropical cyclone that begins as a tropical wave and reaches ~ Hurricane strength despite encounters with hostile effects of baroclinic systems is considered a tropical-only hurricane. 0nly if baroclinic influences are such that the aid formation and growth in a situation where otherwise development was unlikely , is the hurricane NOT considered to be tropical only hurricane. It is important to keep in mind that the definition of tropical-only hurricanes is a description based on the process of tropical-cyclone initiation and growth and is distinct from a definition based on form or structure as is the definition of a subtropical storm. The classification of tropical-only hurricanes is motivated by a desire to understand the climatology of North Atlantic hurricanes, and may not be important for forecasting individual hurricane tracks and intensity changes. Moreover, it may not be directly relevant to other tropical-cyclone basins, including the eastern North Pacific.
Since tropical-only hurricanes are defined with respect to their origin and evolution, it serves us well to note that biologists still argue about how to define "species" 135 years after Darwin (Dennett 1995). One must be careful, of course, but it may be best to consider hurricanes as having various origin and development mechanisms. Research has shown (Hess and Elsner 1994a, Hess et al. 1995, Elsner et al. 1996b) that it is useful to consider North Atlantic hurricane activity as the sum of different hurricane type. This distinction allows one to see otherwise hidden structures in the record. Moreover, as noted in Chapter 1, there are studies identifying underlying physical connections that cause some hurricanes to develop under the direct influence of middle-latitude baroclinic dynamics. In the North Atlantic there are basically two distinct mechanisms for the development of TROPICAL ONLY (a.k.a. "TO") Hurricanes. In the eastern and central Atlantic, tropical-only hurricanes originate from tropical waves moving off the west coast of Africa near the islands of Cape Verde (see Figure 2.7). These waves are a product of instabilities in the low-level African easterly jet stream and the resultant hurricanes are traditionally referred to as Cape Verde hurricanes. In the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes sometimes form from disturbances originating in the confluence of the northeast trade winds with air flowing northward across the equator as an extension of the southeast trades of the Southern Hemisphere. This region of confluence is known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and is associated with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Areas of lower pressure within the confluence, or trough axis can lead to a monsoon depression or tropical Low characterized by a significant expanse of scattered deep convection and a large core (no definitive center) of light winds surrounded by bands of much stronger winds. Though more common over the western North Pacific, monsoon depressions, with their quasi- stable configuration of winds and convection, occasionally develop into North Atlantic hurricanes. The ITCZ reaches its most northerly latitude across the eastern North Pa- cific extending into the Caribbean in late summer and early fall. Frequently, when disturbances from the ITCZ reach hurricane strength, they are classified as tropical- only hurricanes. However, it is not uncommon to observe an enhancement of the cross-equatorial flow resulting from a cold front that has plunged southward (called a "norther") through the Gulf of Mexico. In such cases the disturbance may intensify to hurricane force due to a favorable baroclinic environment. These are non-tropical- only hurricanes.
Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricanes
Baroclinically Enhanced hurricanes come in two flavors:
A Hurricane that is born of a tropical wave or disturbance but benefited favorably from Mid latitude baroclinic influences as it intensified to a hurricane strength is considered to be a BE or Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricane.
A hurricane born of non tropical wave or disturbance is considered to be a baroclinically enhanced hurricane; James Elsner of FSU develop a new term for this case "Baroclinically initiated" or BI which should be viewed as a subsection of the BE or Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricane category. Whether or not trough interaction enhances development of a tropical cyclone depends on the breadth and width of the trough & its distance from the storm. Narrow troughs that remain upstream at a distance from the Tropical cyclone can enhance development by providing a more favorable upper-level outflow.
The difference between tropical-only (TO) and some baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes (BE) can be understood as a difference between the level refers to Initial development takes place. Classic tropical-only hurricanes are initially most organized near the surface and develop from the bottom of the atmosphere upward (bottom-up development).
In contrast, baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes and in particularly the BI or Baroclinically Initiated storms begin most energetically aloft and become hurricanes as they develop from the top downward (top-down development.
BI - Baroclinically initiated hurricanes originate in several different ways. The most to common development occurs in conjunction with a middle latitude frontal trough or with the baroclinic trough that extends into the subtropics. If the trough is associated with partially divergent air flow at upper levels, the development of a non-tropical surface, low pressure system is likely. Strengthening and a transformation into a warm-core tropical define depression is possible if the frontal low is situated over warm waters. Baroclinically initiated hurricanes can ONLY occur from the transformation cold Low that becomes "cut -off" from the main jet. Concerning the baroclinically-initiated classification, this is a stratification based on morphology. shape" apt In other words, what is the form or structure of the original disturbance. If it is cold core, then it is baroclinically initiated. There is no requirement to examine any other part of the system.
They form out of the MDR of the tropics, in a marginal SSTs close proximity to middle latitude Jet streaks originates in the subtropical regions.
The idea of dividing North Atlantic hurricane activity into separate subsets, each characterized by unique origins and developmental processes, is an assumption that changes the view of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate. The distinction between tropical-only and baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes can be illustrated with an Example. Frogs are born as tadpoles from eggs, usually laid in water and They grow and develop into adult frogs. This growth and development is called ONTOGENY which refers to the "becoming" of a frog. The class, order, and species is derived largely from morphology. Morphology or form level refers to the structure (being) of the adult frog. A cursory examination of Adult frogs might lead to a classification base on size --- small like the north Florida bog frog (Rana okaloosae) or large like the bullfrog This categorization is based morphology.
It is in this sense that we have classified North Atlantic hurricanes. As one must have a record of temperatures throughout the lifecycle of a frog to classify it as tropical only, one must examine the growth and development of a hurricane from its inception to hurricane intensity to classify it as tropical only or baroclinically enhanced and within that group baroclinically-initiated . The new classification is based on ONTOGENY rather than on morphology. It is necessary to understand this distinction to appreciate the meaning of tropical-only hurricanes. Concerning the baroclinically-initiated classification, this is a stratification based on morphology. shape" apt In other words, what is the form or structure of the original disturbance? .!f it is cold core, then it is baroclinically initiated. There is no requirement to examine any other system. Note that a baroclinically-initiated hurricane is necessarily baroclinically enhanced, since the initiation stage is certainly Part of the lifecycle of a tropical cyclone, just as the egg is the first stage in the lifecycle of a frog.
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mf_dolphin
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jlauderdal
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Brent wrote:ColdFront77 wrote:Is a rare for the same plane to investigate two systems in the same day?
Saves on gas... lol
Well in case nobody has heard, the state gas tax in florida has been discontinued for the month of august, seriousely. So a stop over in bonnie. Than swing over to Key west Naval Air Station for a fill up and save 8 cents a gallon on the tax and than continue to the systema nd than i suggest they stay at the station in St. Croix till tomorrows recon and than do a reverse course tomorrow. Two tankloads of gas less the tax.
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Thanks DT. That helped me understand much better.
DT said:
Unless BONNIE really gets its act together she will even up doing more psychological damage than real property damage; the damage will be with the Yahoos in western FL who may end up seeing not much of an event-- with winds gusting to 60 MPH .... and thinking "that wasn't sooooo bad ...I survived another BIG one" ...
So, the real danger lies in the next "Big ONE" that comes along. Only it might really be a BIG ONE and people will ignore evacuation orders because their experience tells them it's not so bad. Charlie just might be it. Interesting......
DT said:
Unless BONNIE really gets its act together she will even up doing more psychological damage than real property damage; the damage will be with the Yahoos in western FL who may end up seeing not much of an event-- with winds gusting to 60 MPH .... and thinking "that wasn't sooooo bad ...I survived another BIG one" ...
So, the real danger lies in the next "Big ONE" that comes along. Only it might really be a BIG ONE and people will ignore evacuation orders because their experience tells them it's not so bad. Charlie just might be it. Interesting......
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Stormchaser16
- Category 5
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cycloneye
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000
URNT11 KNHC 101700
97779 17004 30195 82100 57200 04014 56712 /4591
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 09
19.5n-82.1w Almost passing over the Cayman islands now.
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Even if Bonnie were to become a "baroclinically enhanced" storm, why would that necessarily prevent it from causing harm? Hurricane Earl was probably the most notable example of such a system, and it achieved winds of 105 mph before weakening at landfall. Additionally, he formed from the mid-levels downward.
Put a baroclinically-enhanced, yet warm core system, over 90F, and I wonder what happens... we haven't really seen that before, because this strong troughing situation this time of year is unusual.
Right now, Bonnie has a clearly defined LLC, meaning that she is bottom-up instead of top-down. I grant that trough interaction could give her elements of baroclinicity, but I don't see that necessarily as a detriment, especially this time of year. We'll have to wait and see.
BTW, what makes your classification of Bonnie different from, say, how Alex would be "classified" when he was weak and exposed?
Put a baroclinically-enhanced, yet warm core system, over 90F, and I wonder what happens... we haven't really seen that before, because this strong troughing situation this time of year is unusual.
Right now, Bonnie has a clearly defined LLC, meaning that she is bottom-up instead of top-down. I grant that trough interaction could give her elements of baroclinicity, but I don't see that necessarily as a detriment, especially this time of year. We'll have to wait and see.
BTW, what makes your classification of Bonnie different from, say, how Alex would be "classified" when he was weak and exposed?
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GalvestonDuck
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Re: Hey!!!
Baytown Bug wrote:Stormcenter wrote:NorthGaWeather wrote:Mobile Bay, Cat 2
Hey that's my prediction. Good prediction.
Houston, TX. Category 4.
[quote]
*snicker*
It'd have to jump over Galveston first and I just wouldn't see that happening.
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Guest
Stormchaser16 wrote:But didnt you say "its headed into mexico as a weak TD.... woopie" ???????? in another thread? Sorry dave, not attacking you here, but i cannot validate your remarks
I find it funny how many "indepedent" casters on here had it a Hurricane twisting out to sea last week before it was even named.
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Josephine96
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