Bonnie Advisories

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Lindaloo
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#1401 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:24 pm

MdWx wrote:I find it funny how many "indepedent" casters on here had it a Hurricane twisting out to sea last week before it was even named.


Weather patterns change on a daily basis.
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c5Camille

#1402 Postby c5Camille » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:24 pm

LMAO !!!!!

you said it MdWx....

pot calling the kettle black...

we had a lot of FISH talk last week...


i don't think we see enough IMO in here.
IMHO
Last edited by c5Camille on Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Guest

#1403 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:25 pm

actually what I said was NO significant strengthening...
in case you havent notice its been 24 hrs since we
had a wind gust at FLT level to 53 knots

I am not writing off Bonnie I just dont expect Much


Stormchaser16 wrote:But didnt you say "its headed into mexico as a weak TD.... woopie" ???????? in another thread? Sorry dave, not attacking you here, but i cannot validate your remarks
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Josephine96

#1404 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:26 pm

Between Cedar Key and Tampa as a Cat 1.. and Central Florida sees it's 1st direct hit from a hurricane since 1995
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tallywx
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#1405 Postby tallywx » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:28 pm

DT wrote:actually what I said was NO significant strengthening...
in case you havent notice its been 24 hrs since we
had a wind gust at FLT level to 53 knots

I am not writing off Bonnie I just dont expect Much


TS Barry was in worse shape than TS Bonnie in 2001 (exposed LLC with no convection). 48 hours later, it was making landfall at Seaside, FL, with wind gusts reported at 82 mph.
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Guest

#1406 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:29 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
MdWx wrote:I find it funny how many "indepedent" casters on here had it a Hurricane twisting out to sea last week before it was even named.


Weather patterns change on a daily basis.


That has absolutely nothing to do with it.
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Steve
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#1407 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:29 pm

Eastern Gulf Threat from Monday a week ago (yeah, you heard it here first).

I think it's going to hit somewhere in Walton or Bay Counties as an 85mph system with winds gusting to around 100. /guesscast

Steve
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rainstorm

#1408 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:29 pm

with an exposed center rapid intensification of bonnie just isnt possible. first it will have develop convection around the center, and by that time its time will have almost run out
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Lindaloo
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#1409 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:30 pm

Well explain what it has to do with it then???
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tallywx
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#1410 Postby tallywx » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:31 pm

If you look carefully in latest vis loops, you can see upper-level clouds (outflow) beginning to radiate NW-ward from the center of circulation. This could suggest that the northerly shear is beginning to relax. Just a thought...
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Josephine96

#1411 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:32 pm

Just out of curiosity..

In an earlier thread.. I had mentioned that if Bonnie came at Tampa/St Pete..,someone else said we'd be on the east side and said it could be catastrophic {actually I think it was Charley not Bonnie}

Anyway.. what's catastrophic? us being on the East side? or a storm hitting TB? or both? I'm confused lol
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Rainband

#1412 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:33 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Just out of curiosity..

In an earlier thread.. I had mentioned that if Bonnie came at Tampa/St Pete..,someone else said we'd be on the east side and said it could be catastrophic {actually I think it was Charley not Bonnie}

Anyway.. what's catastrophic? us being on the East side? or a storm hitting TB? or both? I'm confused lol
East side, actually NE quad is the worst area of a Tropical system.
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#1413 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:33 pm

DT wrote:actually what I said was NO significant strengthening...
in case you havent notice its been 24 hrs since we
had a wind gust at FLT level to 53 knots

I am not writing off Bonnie I just dont expect Much


This is from this morning's NHC discussion on Bonnie:

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE BONNIE
HAS MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DROPSONDE DATA NEAR THE
CENTER INDICATED 70 KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 51 KT
. A SECOND DROPSONDE ALSO
MISSED THE CENTER AND REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
AND THE PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...A LITTLE BELOW THE MEASURED PRESSURE.

What more do you want?
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Dean4Storms
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#1414 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:34 pm

I would suspect to see TS Watches placed late today for possibly Gulfport, MS. to Appalachicola, FL with warnings tomorrow narrowed down as she turns NE.
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Josephine96

#1415 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:34 pm

Thank you RB.. and by the way.. you're less than 100 from 10K
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Guest

#1416 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:36 pm

Fair enough. I am NOT disputing the point... But a wind GUST to 82 mph on the GULF coast is NOT a big deal.


tallywx wrote:
DT wrote:actually what I said was NO significant strengthening...
in case you havent notice its been 24 hrs since we
had a wind gust at FLT level to 53 knots

I am not writing off Bonnie I just dont expect Much


TS Barry was in worse shape than TS Bonnie in 2001 (exposed LLC with no convection). 48 hours later, it was making landfall at Seaside, FL, with wind gusts reported at 82 mph.
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Josephine96

#1417 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:36 pm

I would go with watches and warnings issued by no later than 5am tomorrow..

My prediction on the advisories is from Mobile Bay all the way to Cedar Key..
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Rainband

#1418 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:36 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Thank you RB.. and by the way.. you're less than 100 from 10K
?? 10k, whats that
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Brent
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#1419 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:37 pm

Watches at either 4pm or 10pm CDT today with warnings at either 4am or 10am CDT.
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#neversummer

Brent
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#1420 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 10, 2004 12:38 pm

Rainband wrote:
Josephine96 wrote:Thank you RB.. and by the way.. you're less than 100 from 10K
?? 10k, whats that


10,000 posts. :wink:
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#neversummer


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