Bonnie Advisories

[Derecho]

It's suffering a fairly good amount of shear and it certainly isn't decreasing.

Shades of 90L (to a lesser degree) as models didn't really depict the NE shear on the SE side of an upper high well with 90L.

[lilbump3000]

Nope nothing impressive, and based on that the system has weakened.

[Josephine96]

Come on Bonnie.. fight the shear..

[Josephine96]

Well.. it's got till 5pm lol.. maybe it'll reorganize itself in the next couple hours

[NorthGaWeather]

The shear looks to be relaxing some and it looks like a NW motion continues.

[NorthGaWeather]

Already organizing

[rbaker]

although they went through when storm it was being sheared some, it probably will be a different system once it gets into that window of moving ne and some sw flow helping to increase strengh. History of this storm speaks for itself one min almost gone next thing 50kt winds.

[Stormcenter]

I've noticed what appears to be some small banding features north of the center. An outflow boundary shot out sometime this morning but now appears that these clouds are wrapping around the center.

\

Good observations NorthGaWeather.

[rbaker]

motion is northely or at least nnw, and if you look ahead of storm, you will see cloud elements from sw to ne. This should help convection to south of storm to be placed back on top of center for awhile until sw shear gets to strong if that happens.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree, I think we all could see that she weakened some earlier as the shear, dry air and change in direction tilted her structure. Looks to me that she is now re-organizing with distinctive banding (not before seen) wrapping around her northern periphery. She should re-intensify overnite IMO.


Latest Models in a Spaghetti run.........

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/02LALLMDL.html

[Nimbus]

This upper level circulation from the high located northwest of Bonnie that is causing all the northeasterly shear will have to let up before the southwesterly flow from the forecast front moves in.

[Derek Ortt]

sheared systems typically undergo convective bursts right over the center. This does not mean the shear is decreasing, instead, it is likely just one of these transient bursts

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101800
97779 18004 30177 77400 57200 04014 56//1 /4590
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 11

17.7n-77.4w. Now the plane is just SSE of Jamaica so still far from Charley.

[Josephine96]

Well.. lets see how long Bonnie keeps her act together.. she's been a good fighter so far

[dixiebreeze]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 90.6W AT 10/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 50 KT GUSTS 60
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BONNIE IS A SMALL AND
COMPACT STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 90W-93W.

TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 69.7W AT 10/1800
UTC...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CHARLEY EXHIBITS
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER THE THE N SEMICIRCLE.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 60W-72W. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 65W-71W...

[tallywx]

Recon. shows Bonnie now at 24.4N, 90.6W (from 23.9N, 90.4W last fix), meaning that the westward component to her motion has almost come to an end.

[Josephine96]

So Charley is still forecast to strengthen..? Hmm.. Lets see how much more he develops

[Josephine96]

So when will the Northward-Northeast turn begin? tonight? tomorrow?

[NorthGaWeather]

The shear is relaxing, you can see that. It still looks like a NW motion with the last frame jumping more NNW. Need to see if it continues.

[Guest]

NOT surprised