Charley Advisories

Derek Ortt · #421 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:05 pm

most storms that fly westward are SAL storms. The SAL also has a low-level easterly wind surge

Rainband · #422 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:06 pm

Good news!! 8-)

Website · #423 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:06 pm

I'm starting to hate this storm! :grr:

Outflow boundary just spit out towards the NE too. Geez... Charley, get your act together and slow your butt down.

Josephine96 · #424 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:07 pm

needs to figure out what he's gonna do.. that's for sure..

Website · #425 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:10 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:2 things have just came out of the 18Z guidance:

1. Charley has increased its forward speed yet again by another 2KT. He must be looking for his Bonnie or something.

2. Many of the new GFD models that had the system as a cat 2 hurricane, now only have this making landfall as a strong tropical storm in the NGOM

What a mess. Can the models be right just once?

southerngale · #426 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:10 pm

Patrick99 wrote:They both look stinky. For my money, why anyone is "worried" or "concerned" about either of these two so-called tropical cyclones at THIS POINT, is beyond me. The hype and over-dramatizing coming out of this board at times is a bit tough to take.

The specter of a strong tropical storm or Cat. 1-2 hurricane is not the end of the world. If they both hit Florida, Florida wouldn't sink into the ocean, nor would your house blow away.

Geez, especially in the case of this Bonnie, the over-hype and over-worry here is laughable.

A cat. 1 or cat. 2 hurricane can do a lot of damage and your attitude that people shouldn't be worried or concerned is what's a bit tough to take. And who knows if it will be a cat. 1 or a cat. 2 - maybe it will explode into a cat. 3 or cat. 4 or just remain a TS. The point is we're here to discuss and learn. If you want to poke fun at folks doing that, maybe you're in the wrong place.

#427 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:15 pm

Charley is definitely looking very sickley this afternoon. That feeder band/squall to the north has collapsed and pushed out an outflow boundary. That means no air flowing in toward the center in that area. Also, note the two ships in front of Charley. If the wind directions are correct, Charley may well lack an LLC, as the QuickSCAT pass indicated this morning. New GFDL takes it north across Cuba into Florida, as does the GFS (I don't generally like the GFS much, though). Could turn into just a rain maker for FL.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/charley3.gif">

Josephine96 · #428 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:17 pm

Charley will fight off this trouble and hopefully slow down..

rtd2 · #429 Postby **rtd2** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:18 pm

Still pretty ragged....whatch out when the vertical stacking begins :eek:

Derek Ortt · #430 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:20 pm

If those ships are reporting SE winds, this likely is just an open wave and MUCH weaker than yesterday. No low-level convergence and it doesnt matter how good conditions are for development

Josephine96 · #431 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:22 pm

Enough of this no center talk lol

Website · #432 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:24 pm

I'm ready to scream... :grr:

Derek Ortt · #433 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:33 pm

I think most everyone will have been surprised by Charley

Website · #434 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:34 pm

The crow is on the stove. :cry:

rainstorm · #435 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:34 pm

im glad you posted this derek, because after i declared td2 an open wave a few days back i got blasted. i thought this morning chuck would be a wave, as it is just moving too fast, and once again creating its own shear. i chickened out and decided the attacks werent worth it, hehe

Thunder44 · #436 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:38 pm

Well, I hope recon does find an LLC, but if they don't then it just goes to show how satellite pics can be decieving.

Website · #437 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:39 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Well, I hope recon does find an LLC, but if they don't then it just goes to show how satellite pics can be decieving.

But it had an LLC at least briefly yesterday because of west winds on Trindad and Margarita.

ChaserUK · #438 Postby **ChaserUK** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:44 pm

mmmm, guys waz up with Charley, is it a gonner?

lilbump3000 · #439 Postby **lilbump3000** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:45 pm

Well looking at in on infrared charley does not look to good in the neighborhood.

stormernie · #440 Postby **stormernie** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:47 pm

Couple of items that I want to bring to everyone attention:

1) Charley disorganized stage may be short lived. It's going thru a area were there are mountains to the north and to the south. This is causing some disrruption to the intake of mositure and heat.

2) If you look closely Charley may have started (whether it short or long term ) a more northwesterly course. This may be as a result of the storm feeling the effects of the low pressure and old front to its north. This could be critical because the further North it goes the greater the threat to Cuba, Fla and especially the keys.

We will wait to see what the recon reports...

Comments welcome as always..

Ernie

Charley Advisories

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Couple of Pts about Charley

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