Bonnie Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

I think "Mother" is pushing our buttons this week -- LOL

[The Dark Knight]

Same here... If Bonnie does get absorbed... She'll be heading either just off the NC coast or into the Appalacian Mts. WATCH OUT NEW ENGLAND!!! LOL....

[Stormsfury]

Bonnie's exposing herself (actually the NE shear is ...) ... and this is a very small tropical cyclone ... IF it cannot continue to sustain convection, poof ...

SF

[lilbump3000]

How she looks now, i wont be surprised if her winds are down to like 50mph on the next advisory.

[rbaker]

I wouldn't quite give up on Bonnie, take a look at the ir sat loop and you will see a feathering affect coming out from the storm, that shows a ridge is venting the system. Also because the convection is down again, does not mean dissapation, in fact personally along with a few others, think she'll flare again later tonight, because of less shear, very warm sst's, and some small but nevertheless banding taking place. All we need now is some convection to fire, then watch out.

[Thunder44]

It will be downgraded to 50mph. I saw the 18z models initialized on it.

[Josephine96]

LOL.. My question is with the turn now coming.. will the track be shifted a tad eastward

[Stormcenter]

Don't flame me for saying this but it almost looks like Bonnie is trying to reorganize a little further south than where the center was before it collapsed.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[kevin]

It ain't coming to Orlando, that's almost for sure.

[USAwx1]

Because its such a compact system, there are going to be MAJOR fluctuations in it's intensity.

[Josephine96]

That's a bold statement Kevin.. Remember where it is right now.. If it were to get shot off to the NE or even ENE.. it would definitely get a chance to start bookin this way..

Never say never.. I'm staying glued on it with the apparent turn now occuring..

[ColdFront77]

Yeah that was my point as a comparison to other systems. In the GOM under favorable conditions things can change

Understood, okey dokey.

[Brent]

still forecast to be a hurricane, watches at 10pm likely

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 11

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2004

reconnaissance and satellite data indicate Bonnie has maintained a
tight inner-core wind field...despite the recent weakening of the
central convection. Ship h3gq reported 40 kt southwesterly winds
about 40 nmi south of the center at 18z. Based on this report and a
recon reported pressure of 1004 mb...the initial intensity is only
being decreased to 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 005/05. The last two recon positions
indicate Bonnie has finally made the long expected turn to the
north through a break in the subtropical ridge. Subsequent
satellite data confirms this motion...and possibly even a slight
east of due north motion. This new motion is already to the right
of the NHC model guidance suite...so the official forecast track is
just an extension and update of the previous forecast track. Bonnie
should begin to accelerate significantly to the northeast in 24-30
hours and make landfall in the central portion of the Florida
Panhandle in about 42 hours.

As mentioned in the previous advisories...Bonnie is expected to
remain a small tropical cyclone throughout the period...which can
result in rapid intensity fluctuations. Bonnie may be going through
one of those temporary fluctuations now. The intensity forecast is
predicated on deep convection returning within the next 6 to 12
hours. Arguments for thunderstorms redeveloping over the center
later tonight or Wednesday is...the recent improvement in the outer
banding features noted in satellite imagery...Bonnie expected to
move into a weak or even no shear environment in 12-24 hours...very
warm sea-surface temperatures...and the usual nocturnal convective
maximum period. However...by 36 hours...southwesterly upper-level
shear is expected to begin increasing...which may cap the intensity
trend prior to landfall. The official intensity forecast is the
same as the previous intensity forecast and is a blend of the SHIPS
and GFDL model intensity forecasts.
Watches for portions of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coastal
areas may be required later tonight.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/2100z 24.7n 90.5w 45 kt
12hr VT 11/0600z 25.5n 90.4w 55 kt
24hr VT 11/1800z 26.8n 89.5w 65 kt
36hr VT 12/0600z 28.5n 87.5w 70 kt
48hr VT 12/1800z 31.0n 84.0w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 13/1800z 37.0n 76.5w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 14/1800z 53.5n 68.5w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1800z...absorbed by frontal system

[lilbump3000]

I knew it.

[tallywx]

5 p.m. advisory in.

Highlights: winds down to 50 mph

24.7N, 90.5W

Heading - 5 degrees at 5 kts

Still predicted to make landfall as a 70 kt hurricane (at Mexico Beach, FL).

28.5N, 87.5W ---> 31.0N, 84.0W

"WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS.
"

[ColdFront77]

It ain't coming to Orlando, that's almost for sure.

Orlando COULD be effected by either or both Bonnie and Charley. Beings that Orlando is inland it's impossible for a "genuine landfalling" tropical cyclone.

[ColdFront77]

There haven't been too many tropical cyclones to not weaken before intensification, even moderate to rapid intensification takes place.

[Josephine96]

Yes true Tom.. but saying Bonnie aint coming here is ridiculous lol

[Josephine96]

Just wait and see where those watches are lol

[lilbump3000]

I know were they going to be on the flordia panhandle. Thats if she holds together.