Charley Advisories

[hurricanemike]

[Stormsfury]

Well ... I'm safe ... the LBAR puts Charley right over Charleston in 4-5 days ...

[Josephine96]

Boy that just makes it all better for us doesn't it lol

[ColdFront77]

Hey now Mike! First of all good afternoon.

Sure, the models show them going there now. They can flip flop from indicating a near Charleston, SC track to a non-Charleston, SC track. But I am sure you're aware of that.

These changes in forecast tracks will be the fun part. It is nearly impossible, if not impossible for either one of these storms moving that far to the west.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 101810
A. TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY (THREE)
B. 10/1715Z (55)
C. 14.6N/1
D. 69.6W/1
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/21HRS -10/1715Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: T3.1 (CURVED BND)

PIATT

TPNT KGWC 101800
A. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (TWO)
B. 10/1715Z (52)
C. 24.4N/0
D. 90.9W/8
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS -10/1715Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL.
FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.4 (IRREG CDO)

PIATT

[TheWeatherZone]

There goes my sunny vacation in Myrtle Beach, SC next week if this verifies..

Mike~

[sponger]

Ouch! Doesnt look good for us here in Jacksonville on the GDFL! This town reminds me of South Florida before Andrew! Clueless and in Denial of the true threat.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Charley has weakened, but, the storm will return, IMO. No criticism from me...just a weakening cycle that wasn't foreseen with the sheer. I still think we'll be looking at a hurricane striking the United States with this system.

[USAwx1]

BAMM is not good for Tampa, and on that track it would also take Charley between GNV and OCF, then perhaps over JAX.

The LBAR and GFDL would be equally nasty for the Keys.

Still a little early to be discussing this though (IMO).

[ColdFront77]

Yup early, but a slight concern with these latest models. They will change but I don't see a vast change in them because of the upcoming trough, it would take a lot for a SW and/or W steering pattern to take place.

[kevin]

Now that cluster gives me some pause. Haven't had a storm this way since Gabrielle. *hopes he doesn't come into Tampa too strong*

[USAwx1]

Ouch! Doesnt look good for us here in Jacksonville on the GDFL! This town reminds me of South Florida before Andrew! Clueless and in Denial of the true threat.

Not really, the GFDL would keep JAX on the western side of the system---the BAMM brings it almost directly over JAX.

[ColdFront77]

Now that cluster gives me some pause. Haven't had a storm this way since Gabrielle. *hopes he doesn't come into Tampa too strong*

That's true, too. Clusters are more of a concern than models going all over the place. We shall see the all important updating forecast models.

[Stormsfury]

BAMM is not good for Tampa, and on that track it would also take Charley between GNV and OCF, then perhaps over JAX.

The LBAR and GFDL would be equally nasty for the Keys.

Still a little early to be discussing this though (IMO).

Exactly ... remember, we're not getting a lot of run to run continuity with the track of Charley right now, and part of that lies with Bonnie, sometimes being initialized, sometimes not ...

Some area AFD's though have been quite interesting, including CHS's earlier today in regards to both Bonnie and Charley ...

SF

[Rainband]

Time will tell.

[USAwx1]

BAMM is not good for Tampa, and on that track it would also take Charley between GNV and OCF, then perhaps over JAX.

The LBAR and GFDL would be equally nasty for the Keys.

Still a little early to be discussing this though (IMO).

Exactly ... remember, we're not getting a lot of run to run continuity with the track of Charley right now, and part of that lies with Bonnie, sometimes being initialized, sometimes not ...

Some area AFD's though have been quite interesting, including CHS's earlier today in regards to both Bonnie and Charley ...

SF

Right now I think Charley is more of a significant threat but where it ends up depends largely on the position and amplitude of the longwave trough digging into the GL/Ohio valley on SUN.




If we look at the Ridge/trough position over the EUS and W. ATL (per the 12z GFS) this could very well be a W/NW Florida problem. just for Kicks we'll say anywhere between Ft. Myers and Cape San Blas.

[Derek Ortt]

needless to say the next charley forecast will be right of this one (would have been farther had I known with 100% certainty it was a TC) and will be more intense than 65KT

[Matthew5]

Tropical storm Charley
Forecast Number 2#
3pm pst/6pm est
8-10-2004


...Tropical storm Charley is racing off to the west-northwest....


The center of Charley as of 2pm pst/5pm est is located near 15.3 north/70.4 west...Moving west-northwest at around 26 mph. Over the last 6 hours the system has becomed slightly less organized with a new band of convection to the north spitting out outflow boundry. Which kill off the inflow into the tropical cyclone. The latest shows this band is starting to weaken at the 2pm pst. Over the last few frames the convection(Cdo) has started moving over the LLCC. The system seems to be pulling together again over the last hour. One thing in its faver is the inflow is starting to pull into the system. On another note the recon has found 43 knots winds, with a pressure of 999 millibars just with in the last hour or so. This also backs up that there is still a LLCC. With this system. The latest Sab t number shows it at 2.5/2.5 t. With that being said I'm keeping this a weak tropical storm.


The system is spreading a large area of moist air ahead of it out to 75 west. Which means that over the short term dry air should not be limiting factor. It may need to be watched later on(past 48 hours) Which shows dry air all the way back into the Gulf of Mexico. Another Forecast factor to watch is a upper level low around 18 north/81 west which seems to be having some shear close to the system. That is seens at looking at the sharp western edge of the cloud shield. All together the Caribbean is not any where near as favable as first thought. I still expect this system to start spinning up over the next 24 hours. Which the inflow starting to move into the system, might be a sign of it. But with these limiting factors an with the speed of the system this may not become stronger then a weak hurricane.


Track
The hurricane models have all shifted sharply to the right since last night. A Florida landfall seems very likely at this time. The GFDL each run has shifted more to the right.
12z Takes it through southern Florida at 92 knots...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
The 06 took it up near 85 west. Then turned it into Florida.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
The 00z took into the central Gulf of Mexico.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
The Nogaps also shows a landfall in Flordia...

My thinking is as of right now it is already at 70 west. Speeding at 26 mph. All the other hurricane forecast models take this into Southern Florida. My track will fellow close to the Lbar,Gfdl at this time.


Forecast winds
Now 40 mph
6 45 mph
12 55 mph
24 60 mph
36 65 mph making landfall in Cuba(22 north/78.5 west)
48 50 mph just south of key west florida(24.5/80.5 west)


Forecaster Matthew


This is not offical at all!

[The Dark Knight]

Forecaster Matthew...LOL.....

[Matthew5]

Whats the LOL for?