Bonnie Advisories

[Brent]

The track may be shifted east more according to the NHC. This thing could come in near Tampa after all.

[dixiebreeze]

She's definitely looking more symmetrical in the latest IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Rainband]

We are so flooded right now. It would be a disaster

[ColdFront77]

Help me out... where is Port Richey?

25 miles south of citrus county

New Port Richey, FL is also about 25 miles northwest of Tampa and about 65 miles southwest of me.

[Stormsfury]

Well, the center isn't tucked under that area of red .. it's NE of it ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[Brent]

We are so flooded right now. It would be a disaster

Not to mention at least 100 mph sustained winds.

[Anonymous]

Yea, Bonnie looks wrecked.

[caneman]

Don't jump the gun here!!!!!!!!! It's a situation where the runs could vary....like he said... wait until the set of models before reacting. That said, Charlie looks terrible right now, and if he keeps his forward speed, may not have sufficient time to strengthen signifiacntly.

Oh, we've had enough false alarms, i'e.. close calls, strong T..S's to know to wait til the last minute. And unfortunatley that can be a bad thing.

[Thunder44]

I noticed some convection develop to the NE of LLC.

[Rainband]

I think we will know more soon. I am just being prepared. Although to be honest we have had so many near misses, I never took them seriously!! Maybe our luck ran out. At any rate we shall have ample time to prepare if we need to.

[Stormcenter]

Is Bonnie trying to form a new center further south under the deep convection? Is she moving?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Anonymous]

They still have this graphic up for the track...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

Is there a new one they have not yet put up?

[Derecho]

Sorry Dixie,

Bonnie looks like garbage and, currently, is getting worse by the minute. The center is now TOTALLY exposed with no deep convection over it....no reason not to use visible during daylight as the primary means of assessing the storm. You can't actually see the LLC with IR4.

This isn't necessarily permanent, and far worse looking storms in the GOM have become hurricanes, of course.

[NorthGaWeather]

Bonnie looks better this afternoon...Banding features and outflow have improved and there is no way she is worsing by the minute.

[Derecho]

Sheared storms reform centers under their deep convection a lot less often than people think, and the stronger the storm is, the rarer it is.

The majority of the time if the shear lets up, the exposed LLC will reform convection, not vice-versa.

[Brent]

They still have this graphic up for the track...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

Is there a new one they have not yet put up?

Old.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 081006.gif

[cycloneye]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none

Here is the latest track guidance fron NHC shifted east.

[Anonymous]

I dont know...I do see a little spin under the convection...seems like the storms initial LLC is starting to move NE now.

[Derecho]

Bonnie looks better this afternoon...Banding features and outflow have improved and there is no way she is worsing by the minute.

Ummm...

No polite way to put this, but you sure you're looking at the right storm? Using hi-resolution visible loops, like the one at GHCC?

Bonnie yesterday had deep convection over its circulation center. Now you can see it's circ center totally exposed; those aren't "banding features" they're the low CU lines deliniating an exposed LLC.

The deep convection is sheared away to the SW. That's not "outflow" that's sheared off convection heading SW.

[pavelbure224]

Im a new member I have been looking at storm2k since last hurricane season

Just wondering if there is any news about charley from the recon planes??