Bonnie Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
- adelphi_sky
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 193
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:12 pm
- Location: Adelphi, MD
I agree. Just look at how they forecast winter storms. One day we're getting a foot of snow, 24 hours later, no snow and sunshine. A lot can happen in 24 hours. So I can't imagine the errors involved in a 120 hr forecast.
BTW, I used to want hurricanes to come our way (DC area). Well, Isadore was enough for me even though by the time she came to DC she was a TS. Blew branches off around my house and knocked a tree onto my deck. It's no fun when you're a homeowner.
BTW, I used to want hurricanes to come our way (DC area). Well, Isadore was enough for me even though by the time she came to DC she was a TS. Blew branches off around my house and knocked a tree onto my deck. It's no fun when you're a homeowner.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 558
- Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:56 am
- Location: New Whiteland, IN
- Contact:
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Welcome to the board.About the plane investigating Charley they found this afternoon that the pressure has lowered to 999 mbs and found pretty strong winds at flight level.But they will continue to make different passes this evening to take more data.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
Dean4Storms wrote:tallywx wrote:If you look carefully in latest vis loops, you can see upper-level clouds (outflow) beginning to radiate NW-ward from the center of circulation. This could suggest that the northerly shear is beginning to relax. Just a thought...
Just what I was about to post. I don't understand where DT gets that NHC jumped the gun?? Recon flew into her and found a warm core closed low with approx. 50kt winds. Although she is small, she developed from a TW with no baroclinic influence and so far has deepened somewhat with a phase of weakening due to shear and possibly some dry air entrainment, even a Cat 3 hurricane can do this. True, she looks ragged right now but she is about to enter the area of most favorability that she has seen thus far except when she was in the Yuc. channel. Baroclinicity may come into play eventually, but likely not until around landfall in which time she could be a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. I don't see any validity with your claim, period!
Maybe he can't remember TC Tracy in 1974 off the coast of Australia. That storm had TS force winds extending AFAR..........yeah right!.........20 Nautical Miles!
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
URNT11 KNHC 102053
97779 20534 30141 69800 03100 13024 26238 /0008 41225
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 19
14.1n-69.8w They are SE of the center now.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- adelphi_sky
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 193
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:12 pm
- Location: Adelphi, MD
Bonnie’s optical illusion!
If you look at the visible satellite it looks like Bonnie has split, and there are two spins, one is where the NHC plots it at roughly 25 lat 90 long but I see something that looks like a LLC about 100miles SW of the NHC postion of Bonnie. Is this due to out flow boundries and whatever else I have no clue about?
Thanks
Thanks
0 likes
- Trader Ron
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 928
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
- Location: Naples,Fl
- Contact:
It looks to be mid-level...the remnants of the thunderstorms that had been over Bonnie's circulation, and the component of Bonnie's circulation that continued moving westward when she quite rapidly changed direction to N. I think Bonnie may begin to strengthen after this MLC continues sliding away. For one thing, the outflow this MLC is producing is shearing the center of Bonnie. This may change soon.
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests