Charley Advisories

[hurricanedude]

can we say CANE by 5am????

[Guest]

Convection has been returning to the LLC over Bonnie. Don't turn your back on her yet.

Exactly. What the NHC has been saying time and time and time again is so very true. With TC's of this size extreme fluctuations in strength are common.

[Aquawind]

That is what happens when a massive circulation of convection consolidates and fires over a well organized LLC.. Could be a Cane on next Recon flight if that deep convection continues..

[cycloneye]

But I would prefer to see it flying tonight instead of tommorow to then see the early morning 11th of august models of 6:00 UTC input.

[rainstorm]

will be interesting to see if chuck and bonnie interact. getting very close to each other by tommorow

[WeatherEmperor]

HurricaneDude may be right. Perhaps not tonight at 11pm but tomorrow morning when we wake up, we could have Hurricane Charley on our hands. Then Florida will really start to keep a very vigilant eye on this thing.

<RICKY>

[lilbump3000]

I may be wrong, im not really givin up on this system but come on people look at her. If she doest get anymore organized i wont be surprise if they drop the winds down to 40 MPH on the next advisory. Looks like the clouds are spinning southwest of the main center.

[Aquawind]

But I would prefer to see it flying tonight instead of tommorow to then see the early morning 11th of august models of 6:00 UTC input.

LOL..Well said..
I was gonna say something but elected not to..

[wxman57]

Highest FL winds I've seen on latest recon is about 43ks. That's about barely TS force at the surface. Convection is almost all gone south of the center now, though one cell is popping NE of the center. Could be a sign of changing upper-level winds and the beginning of the NE movement to follow.

[Stormsfury]

Quite possibly at 2 am, actually ... we do have watches and warnings in effect ... and another RECON flight might get in there early enough tomorrow morning ..

SF

[cycloneye]

Not only the 6:00 UTC models run but the 00z globals too so it would be very interesting if they would go tonight but we will have to wait 24 more hours.

[lilbump3000]

The only reason this thing is going to make that turn like that is because its moving to fast and if it contiunes this fast it will catch up with the trough, thats why its forecast to turn that quickly. Now when the storm first develop the national hurricane center had the track so far to the left because they thought the system might slow down and miss the trough that is coming down. Now he can slow down now which it doesnt look like he is he can miss that trough but for now i will go with they track because of how fast he is moving. If he slows down tonight are even tomorrow i will have to go with a different track on this system.

[WeatherEmperor]

Nice to hear that the GIV jet will be out there sampling the environment. Then I can finally add a little bit more peace to my mind as to where Charley will ultimately end up.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

Quite possibly at 2 am, actually ... we do have watches and warnings in effect ... and another RECON flight might get in there early enough tomorrow morning ..

SF

If it becomes a hurricane then, HURRICANE WARNINGS will be need for Jamaica like soon, at 11pm.

[pavelbure224]

Isnt the GIV jet going to be out for Bonnie tonight and will that help the models for Charlie as well??

[cycloneye]

According to the plan of the day there are no missions for Bonnie from the gulfstream jet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Stormsfury]

Quite possibly at 2 am, actually ... we do have watches and warnings in effect ... and another RECON flight might get in there early enough tomorrow morning ..

SF

If it becomes a hurricane then, HURRICANE WARNINGS will be need for Jamaica like soon, at 11pm.

Unless there's enough conclusive evidence that it is indeed a hurricane by the 11 pm advisory, they'll hold off for RECON data, IF they can afford to hold off, that is ... (kind of a tedious situation) ... we do have a tropical cyclone that appears to be ready to undergo a rapid intensification process should this CDO continues going strong ... and it should ... such events like these take some time before levelling off ... quite frankly, I'm nervous for them down there right now...

SF

[caneman]

I'm not liking the ring of Hurricane Charley. Sounds like a widow maker to me.

[tallywx]

Finally seems like one thunderstorm is "vigorously" popping over the center. We'll see if this is transient or whether it sets off a chain reaction.

[Derek Ortt]

Based upon the intensifictaion, they need a warning and the Caymans need a hurricane watch