Charley Advisories

[Stormsfury]

What would slow down the movement of Charley and how is it managing to strengthen given its rather dramatic forward movement?

If it can rapidly strengthen moving at 26 mph, I shudder to think what it will do at half that speed or less.

As Charley approaches the Western Caribbean/E GOM, the trough is expected to slow this rapid FWD movement down some as it begins to turn the system towards the N and eventually NNE ...

[TheWeatherZone]

The fast motion of this storm is whats going to keep this thing dangerous. With little time to weaken over land, the storm will be propelled N and then NE as it catches the trough. It will gradually slow down, but not without further gaining strengh. The question that remains is, how far will it get before the turn. I'm currently thinking a south-central florida hit. Then exiting off the FL coast. After that, the fun begins...at least for me in SC.

Mike~

[Rainband]

What would slow down the movement of Charley and how is it managing to strengthen given its rather dramatic forward movement?

If it can rapidly strengthen moving at 26 mph, I shudder to think what it will do at half that speed or less.

As Charley approaches the Western Caribbean/E GOM, the trough is expected to slow this rapid FWD movement down some as it begins to turn the system towards the N and eventually NNE ...

Hopefully the NHC track changes!!!

[Brent]

The fast motion of this storm is whats going to keep this thing dangerous. With little time to weaken over land, the storm will be propelled N and then NE as it catches the trough. The qeustion that remains is, how far will it get before the turn. I'm currently thinking a south-central florida hit. Then exiting off the FL coast. After that, the fun begins...at least for me in SC.

Mike~

Opal? Hugo anyone?

Both spread hurricane force winds over 200 miles inland.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 110020
A. TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY (THREE)
B. 10/2315Z (55)
C. 15.4N/0
D. 71.2W/0
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -10/2315Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10
SPIRAL. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.6 (UNIFORM CDO CLD REGION)

NAULT


TPNT KGWC 110004
A. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (TWO)
B. 10/2315Z (52)
C. 24.8N/4
D. 90.7W/6
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS -10/2315Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC IS LCTD 9NM
FROM DG CNVCTN GIVING A DT OF 3.0. SYSTEM LOOKS
TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS GIVING A
MET OF 1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

AODT: T3.9 (SHEAR)

NAULT

[cycloneye]

Mike I tought that Charley would get more upgrade T numbers around 3.5-4.0 instead of that 3.0 based on the burst that Charley has.

[SouthernWx]

It's a potentially very dangerous scenario unfolding for Florida....especially the west coast of Florida.

Check out this sea surface chart....it's from today...current sst's. Look at the yellow and red areas; both south of Cuba and offshore the west coast of Florida...that's sst's between 86° and 90° F (30-32° C).
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... anti.c.gif

That's enough heat content/ fuel to take Charley to cat-5....IF shear and other enviromental factors don't inhibit intensification.

[Guest]

sorry this track is almost impossible in this coming Upper air pattern

Now I know that Cleo was a CAT 5 in that area & tracked a tad north of where Charley is tracking but in a general term if you take Cleo's track & move it a tad south & west thats where Charley may end up if things continue to unfold as they are now.

[Guest]

NO they wont be that close

NO Bonnie is not something that will afffect Charley

and didnt you forecast the thunderstorm cluster out by 30N and 70 W to be the BIG event ?

oh well another wrong speculation by you... sort of use to it arent we?

will be interesting to see if chuck and bonnie interact. getting very close to each other by tommorow

[Guest]

My assessement about Bonnie have little chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone looks pretty good right now

[TexasSam]

In 3 Hours Charlie went up 15 MPH, if you look at the win speed forcast chart:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 02123I.gif
that wind speed is going to be outside the 10% chance before we get to 12 hours out. Very interesting.
(heck it got me to say something on here for a change)

[Patrick99]

Very interesting storm track on King. However, with the odd angle of that storm, it had a lot more warm FL water to work with, over more time. The passage from W. Cuba to the Keys (the Irene route) is a hop, skip, and a jump. Irene did pick it up a bit once over the Straits, but it was hardly explosive. On the other hand, near-miss Michelle didn't seem to lose too much, passing over Cuba.

My guess is that if this is to be a S. FL hurricane, it will take the Irene passage. Severity will depend upon its strength coming into Cuba, IMO. I really, really hate hyping storms. But, IF this is a major hurricane coming into Cuba, say Cat 3, and then it comes right up the gut into Florida, the upper Keys and Miami could get caught in a nasty right rear quadrant.

[hurricanemike]

yeap...I agree Luis...I think they are under-estimating him.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Based upon the intensifictaion, they need a warning and the Caymans need a hurricane watch

Sadly as I can see in this Jamaican weather page they have'nt updated their tropical storm warning yet, and are expecting Charlie to become a hurricane after it has passed their area, when it reach the northwestern Caribbean by late Thursday...

(from their webpage)...On its current track, the centre of Tropical Storm Charley is forecast to be close to Jamaica’s south coast by tomorrow morning and is expected to pass very close to the south of the island, during the day on Wednesday. The system is then expected to intensify into a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean by late Thursday.

Report link:
http://pages.zdnet.com/glen72/jawx/id16.html

Main Jamaican weather page link:
http://pages.zdnet.com/glen72/jawx/

Actually I don't know for sure if this is an official Jamaican weather site...I found it looking in my search engine so if you guys have another, please post it here so everybody can see their reports about their situation. If I find another weather link or an oficial goverment weather site I will post it later. If someone have a webcam link or something related to Jamaican weather please post it.

Any Jamaica resident arround?? If there if anybody from there please log in and tell us what's going on there!

Cycloman.

[obxhurricane]

Sure looks possible to me. Watch out from the Keys to Boston.

I will post my forecast in just a few minutes...FWIW. Good to see you all again, and watch out down there you FL guys! This one has your name on it.

[mf_dolphin]

Hi OBX! Glad to see ya on the board. I can assure you that Charley has this west coast Florida resident's undivided attention!

[Guest]

...Charley stronger as it moves rapidly west-northwestward across
the central Caribbean...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince...and for Jamaica.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

At 8 PM AST...0000z......0000z...the center of Tropical Storm
Charley was located near latitude 15.7 north... longitude 71.8
west or about 365 miles...590 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph
...43 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the storm will be
nearing Jamaica tomorrow morning.
Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum winds are near 65 mph...105 km/hr...with higher
gusts...over a small area just northeast of the center. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...15.7 N... 71.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 26 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

[The Dark Knight]

If Charley does go up the Eastern Seaboard, where do you think he will make landfall....If he does make landfall, would he still be powerful enough to cause some damage to New England???...... Comments are greatly encouraged..... I live on the Cape so, any theories are greatly appreciated....

[daisy25]

Hello. belive me we on the south coast of New England are watching this very closley

[jlauderdal]

If the NHC want do it..I will

HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA..PREPARATIONS TO SAVE LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
Now I feel better, but seriously...a warning needs to be issued NOW..not later

jamaicans require about 12 hours to get ready. they dont have much in the way of supplies and they know exactly what to do...they have a load of experience. with that said, issue the warnings now!!