Going out on a Limb....Strike Forcast....

[Windtalker]

All day long I thought Chuck would not follow the Western path and end up in the Gulf, I wish I would have posted that this morning. Everyone would have said I was -removed-. I believe that Charley will be a Hurricane by 5am Wednesday morning with winds of 85mph. He will pass just NORTH of Jamacia where he will begin to slow down to 15mph before crossing the central part of Cuba with more of a NW-N Path. Because the central and western parts of Cuba are mostly swamp area's (the mountains are in the eastern half) Charley will not lose to much steam. He will emerge into the Florida straits and grow to a Cat 2 storm before crossing over Long Key then into the Florida Bay. From there he will cross into Everglades National Park just west of US 1. He will follow the Coast up and emerge back over the water around the Palm Beach Broward Line. From there its into the gulf stream where he will become a cat 3 storm and head for the outer banks.....Sound Far Fetched? Watch where the future track of the storm will be at 5AM Wednesday Morning...alittle more East with Florida dead center of it all.....Just a gut Feeling on this one....I'm ready for my lashings now......Jimmy

[hurricanedude]

thats as good as any this early in the game

[Rainband]

I agree Mike. The tropics are far from set in stone!!

[Guest]

What a wish cast ....

First off Yiou are somehow assuming that chuck is NOT going to go into the Yucatan channel...

Second IF chuck hits Cuba it wont be b.c he has slowed down. That makes NO sense at all... a sharp turn like that means Chuck is caught up in the trough whch means ACCLERATION...

then as a ripped up system and pulling in dry air from off the coast and interacting with the trough he magically spins up to a CAT 3 near hatteras....

But then at this point Capn Kirk orders Scotty to fire the phasers to disrupt the cane's circulation....

All day long I thought Chuck would not follow the Western path and end up in the Gulf, I wish I would have posted that this morning. Everyone would have said I was -removed-. I believe that Charley will be a Hurricane by 5am Wednesday morning with winds of 85mph. He will pass just NORTH of Jamacia where he will begin to slow down to 15mph before crossing the central part of Cuba with more of a NW-N Path. Because the central and western parts of Cuba are mostly swamp area's (the mountains are in the eastern half) Charley will not lose to much steam. He will emerge into the Florida straits and grow to a Cat 2 storm before crossing over Long Key then into the Florida Bay. From there he will cross into Everglades National Park just west of US 1. He will follow the Coast up and emerge back over the water around the Palm Beach Broward Line. From there its into the gulf stream where he will become a cat 3 storm and head for the outer banks.....Sound Far Fetched? Watch where the future track of the storm will be at 5AM Wednesday Morning...alittle more East with Florida dead center of it all.....Just a gut Feeling on this one....I'm ready for my lashings now......Jimmy

[kittcat]

Jimmy - I think you just got your lashing.

[Stormsfury]

Jimmy - I think you just got your lashing.

agreed...

[TheWeatherZone]

LOL I love all the different names for this storm, Chuck, Charlie. Just for everyones clarification, the correct spelling is Charley. Is Chuck a short spelling for Charley?

Mike~

[Three Blind Mice]

Hey, I think I've seen this before. DONNA 1960

[Brent]

Is it not the slightest bit ironic that the hurricane track would put the thread starter in the eyewall?

[ColdFront77]

Too bad it isn't easy to not be a wishcaster and looking forward to experiencing a tropical system... what a fine line.

[Windtalker]

he won't be "caught up" in the trough because the trough will not get as far south as Cuba...he will feel the effects of the trough...he will make it to the florida bay before the trough gets to florida...he will be riding the coast and emerge off the coast again around the Palm Beach/Broward line...enter the Gulf stream, regain what little strength he lost with Florida being Flat and all in the gulf stream head north up the coast and hit the outer banks...sound any better?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

First off Yiou are somehow assuming that chuck is NOT going to go into the Yucatan channel...

Still a pompus ass I see but his forecast is not that far off the current GFS and GFDL. Doesn't mean it will verify but he has the right to post it.

[TerryAlly]

All day long I thought Chuck would not follow the Western path and end up in the Gulf, I wish I would have posted that this morning. Everyone would have said I was -removed-. I believe that Charley will be a Hurricane by 5am Wednesday morning with winds of 85mph. He will pass just NORTH of Jamacia where he will begin to slow down to 15mph before crossing the central part of Cuba with more of a NW-N Path. Because the central and western parts of Cuba are mostly swamp area's (the mountains are in the eastern half) Charley will not lose to much steam. .....Just a gut Feeling on this one....I'm ready for my lashings now......Jimmy

Jimmy,

I am in agreement with only the quote above. Charley has clearly shifted more towards the north and barring an unforeseen shift, he is likely to pass north of Jamaica. The mountains of Hispaniola are to the east and will not affect him BUT he will lose a wee bit steam due to his interaction with the Blue and John Crow Mountains in eastern Jamaica which are much higher than the mountain range in Cuba (7400 ft in Jamaica vs 1200 feet in Cuba).

As for intensity, I'd be surprised if by 5 am Wednesday at the very latest it was not upgraded ... but who can tell when it comes to intensity?? Sometimes they take off like a bullet or drop like a lead ball.

Terry

[rainstorm]

donna had alot less land to go over as it went north of the major islands. this is more like frederick, or perhaps even camille, though i am not predicting another camille

[jlauderdal]

All day long I thought Chuck would not follow the Western path and end up in the Gulf, I wish I would have posted that this morning. Everyone would have said I was -removed-. I believe that Charley will be a Hurricane by 5am Wednesday morning with winds of 85mph. He will pass just NORTH of Jamacia where he will begin to slow down to 15mph before crossing the central part of Cuba with more of a NW-N Path. Because the central and western parts of Cuba are mostly swamp area's (the mountains are in the eastern half) Charley will not lose to much steam. He will emerge into the Florida straits and grow to a Cat 2 storm before crossing over Long Key then into the Florida Bay. From there he will cross into Everglades National Park just west of US 1. He will follow the Coast up and emerge back over the water around the Palm Beach Broward Line. From there its into the gulf stream where he will become a cat 3 storm and head for the outer banks.....Sound Far Fetched? Watch where the future track of the storm will be at 5AM Wednesday Morning...alittle more East with Florida dead center of it all.....Just a gut Feeling on this one....I'm ready for my lashings now......Jimmy

you missed the right turn on to 595 and a left on 95...please

[rainstorm]

camille was originally forecast much further east, and ended up in mississippi. i would be on guard in new orleans, just in case

[Stormchaser16]

How much for philly?

Oops wrong board

[USAwx1]

All day long I thought Chuck would not follow the Western path and end up in the Gulf, I wish I would have posted that this morning. Everyone would have said I was -removed-. I believe that Charley will be a Hurricane by 5am Wednesday morning with winds of 85mph. He will pass just NORTH of Jamacia where he will begin to slow down to 15mph before crossing the central part of Cuba with more of a NW-N Path. Because the central and western parts of Cuba are mostly swamp area's (the mountains are in the eastern half) Charley will not lose to much steam. He will emerge into the Florida straits and grow to a Cat 2 storm before crossing over Long Key then into the Florida Bay. From there he will cross into Everglades National Park just west of US 1. He will follow the Coast up and emerge back over the water around the Palm Beach Broward Line. From there its into the gulf stream where he will become a cat 3 storm and head for the outer banks.....Sound Far Fetched? Watch where the future track of the storm will be at 5AM Wednesday Morning...alittle more East with Florida dead center of it all.....Just a gut Feeling on this one....I'm ready for my lashings now......Jimmy

its still MUCH too early to get involved in forecasting where Charley MAY make landfall, however since were on the subject here, I have no reason to deviate from my initial inclination this afternoon---which PERHAPS would take Charley inland anywhere between FT. Myers beach and Cape San Blas. Your idea is very improbable IMO

[USAwx1]

How much for philly?

Oops wrong board

12-18" Pal.