Bonnie Advisories

[hurricanedude]

well...someone agrees......thank goodness...I thought i was a nut for a while

[Stormsfury]

Close to the center, but still on the southern end of the LLC right now. there's still some northerly shear evident on WV imagery ... a s/w ridge is displaced to the SW of the LLC ATT as the nearly west to east trough approaches the GOM ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

My assessement about Bonnie have little chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone looks pretty good right now

[ColdFront77]

well...someone agrees......thank goodness...I thought i was a nut for a while

Great point, Mike. It wasn't too many hours ago the forecast for Bonnie was calling for a minimal hurricane.

[Thunder44]

It's only been a weakening trend since this afternoon, after a strengthening trend this morning. That's not even 12 hours.

[hurricanedude]

LOL CF......I noticed your responce...just all the other ones out weighed our thoughts..

[Stormchaser16]

Great post here, yes, it has HARDLY been anywhere near 24 hours since Bonnie began a weakening trend, and its very unprofressional to say that "you never know" is really reaching....

None of us knew with Alex
And Dave, didnt you say Bonnie was headed towards MEXICO as nothing but a weak TD?????? Just goes to show how much, YA NEVER KNOW

[Stormchaser16]

Heres the quote

The reason why the GFS and other models do NOT handle the remains of TD 2 well is b/c there is NOTHING to handle. I do NOT see any SIGNIFICANT development...
could it make it back to TD status before it crashes into northern Mexico?

Yeah maybe. Big whoop.

A couple of very quick things...of course more information later on as time permits...

1. Initial forecasts, paticually the first couple of offical forecasts on weak/developing systems are very low confidence deals. Intensity and exact center location, and initial motion are bigtime variables for the guidance, and there is little confidence in any of these variables right now. Let's watch the trends and see what the models do with the next couple of runs.

2. If 91L redevelops into TD2 again and intensifies...it's recurvature could ultimately impact the track of TD3. The 12Z GFS DOES initalize TD3 well...but does NOT develop TD2 at all. Since the GFDL runs against the GFS background...TD2 non-development would impact that model track too.

TD2 would likely create a weakness in the ridge to the north and potentially shift the track of TD3 to the right side of the NHC track.

Of course we have time to watch but the track will likely change some in the coming advisories...especially if TD2 redevelops.

MW

Ya just never know.....

[Baytown Bug]

It's just opinions folks. Everybody's got one. Mine is Charley is the Thunder and the Lightning. Bonnie has a hostile environment to deal with, especially to the north. I've been watching the cloud tops being blown off all day off the LA, MS and AL coast.

But quoting Dennis Miller, it's my opinion and I could be wrong.

[Dean4Storms]

Just got back from meeting GW as he swung through our area on his Bus Campaign tour.....

Anyway, for any so-called professional meteorologist to write-off a TC with 50mph winds in the central GOM with convection and growing and NHC forecasting strengthening is a reaching meteorologists!

True, Bonnie isn't on the scale of Charley at the moment and may never be, but there is potential for her to make it to hurricane status and for all we know Bonnie could end up killing people when it makes landfall, maybe even more than Charley. It only takes the right set of circumstances (like a tornado hitting the worng place) to make Bonnie someone's nightmare.

[WeatherNole]

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2004



an aircraft reconnaissance mission from 17 to 23z found a maximum
wind of 43 kt at 850-mb flight level and 1004 mb. Also satellite
imagery shows a sputtering very small area of deep convection.
Therefore the maximum surface wind is reduced from 45 kt to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 010/04. The track guidance remains
in good agreement about an acceleration toward the northeast in
advance of a mid latitude trough digging southward into the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast track is shifted a little
to the left of the previous advisory following a consensus of the
global track guidance models.

Bonnie only has about 24 hours to intensify before encountering
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. Since the current trend
has been for slight weakening...significant intensification is
getting less likely. The GFDL model brings the winds to 82 kt
before landfall...but none of the other guidance shows much
strengthening. The SHIPS model GOES to only 45 kt before landfall.
The previous advisory forecast 70 kt before landfall and this
advisory forecast backs off to 60 kt which is probably still too
high.

The track and intensity forecasts require a tropical storm watch for
the Florida Panhandle.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/0300z 25.0n 90.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 26.0n 90.1w 50 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 27.6n 89.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 29.8n 86.7w 60 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 32.5n 83.2w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 14/0000z 42.0n 75.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 15/0000z...absorbed by frontal system


$$

--

Mike

[The Dark Knight]

It's out pretty early...LOL... It's 9:54 EST...

[Dean4Storms]

They are saying it was a bogus transmission, HUH?????

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.

[MGC]

Not much to talk about with Bonnie. Spending their time on Charlie....MGC

[abajan]

I am very surprised at how tiny Bonnie is. Even on the close-up (floater) it looks small.

[Brent]

They are saying it was a bogus transmission, HUH?????

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.

LOL, and I thought it was real.

[WeatherNole]

They are saying it was a bogus transmission, HUH?????

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.

--

Pretty funny.

NO! NO!

Don't look at it yet!!!
You must wait another hour!!

STOP LOOKING AT ME!!!!! AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!



Mike

--

[Ripopgodazippa]

Getting me all worked up for nothing!!!
Gibson Inn... Here we come!!!

[hurricanefreak1988]

I don't think it's fake. I think it's like WeatherNole said, they released it too early, and they don't want people seeing it before it's time.

[corpusbreeze]

is how she split today, the organized llc moving NE being influenced by the trough, and the unorganized mid level being pushed west. Two storms in one at different stages and how upper air dynamics influenced both. This trough will be the saving grace for Texas from Charley. Hey I like big storms, but Charley might be too much of a storm for my liking. I think Charley will be a monster.