wxman57 wrote:Hyperstorm wrote:If NHC shifts the track to the right as expected, look at what this MONSTER might do. Strike South Florida as a Cat. 2 hurricane (conservative), regenerate off the coast of Cape Canaveral possibly becoming a Major Hurricane just before striking NC and head toward NEW ENGLAND as a Cat 1-2. This could be a POTENTIAL DISASTER IN THE MAKING.
This could be similar to DONNA, but with the only exception....this is the year 2004.......
Actually, more of a right shift may mean a weaker hurricane at landfall. Think Irene of 1999. Landfall could well be across the Keys into the southern Tip of Florida, maybe even more east. That means a longer crossing of Cuba over some pretty rugged terrain. It'll be hard to intensify over the mountains of Cuba, so it would likely emerge a TS. Fast movement toward south Florida wouldn't give it much time to strengthen.
It will depend on what area of Cuba does the "eye" cross over. If it's on the western part of the island, there might not be much weakening, especially if the system is moving at a pretty brisk pace.
In fact, it's very unusual for a tropical cyclone to weaken when it crosses the Cuban coastline. This has been proven over the years with many tropical systems. Case in point, I can mention to you Hurricane Lili in 1996. The system traversed Cuba from south to north with a determined central pressure and it exited the north coast with the exact central pressure. The most it can do normally is a halt in intensification.
Other than that temporary halt, the pattern is setting up for the system to SHOOT quickly northward into New England, rather than head out to sea to the Northeast.
