Charley Advisories

[corpusbreeze]

As charley strengthens tonight it will and is slowing down. The ULL is far enough west to help ventilate Charley. I dont think the ull will have much of an impact on direction.

[Brent]

Late saturdau, early sunday? Man that thing is cruising. May have to get out in my patrol car and write this thing a ticket for reckless driving. Where in the Florida Panhandle exactly? I live in Apalachicola,Fl.

It may come in sooner than that.

Man... just plotted the points and you have the landfall right at Apalachicola.

[obxhurricane]

--TFCTSU--

NEMAS-TFC

Tropical Storm Update

National Environmental and Meteorological Association

09:56 PM EDT Tuesday, August 10, 2004



Tropical Storm Charley



**Current position and forecast track**



Latest position and intensity:

15.7 North, 71.8 West - Highest sustained winds: 55 knots / 65 mph.

12 hour forecast:

17.2 North, 75.1 West - Highest sustained winds: 55 knots / 65 mph.

24 hour forecast:

18.6 North, 78.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 55 knots / 65 mph.

36 hour forecast:

20.1 North, 80.3 West - Highest sustained winds: 65 knots / 75 mph.

48 hour forecast:

22.0 North, 81.9 West - Highest sustained winds: 80 knots / 90 mph.

72 hour forecast:

26.0 North, 83.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 80 knots/90 mph.



Storm Discussion:

...Charley strengthens... ...All interests from the Northern Caribbean to the
Florida Keys should closely monitor future advisories on Charley...

The cloud pattern has become better organized this evening after becoming a bit
ragged this afternoon. During the past few hours a large cold CDO feature has formed
over the center, and the outflow pattern remains good to excellent in all quadrants
except a bit restricted on the southwest flank. All in all, conditions appear
favorable for further strengthening during the forecast period. The only exception
is that Charley will encounter land during the next 72 hours. First, during the day
tomorrow, the center should pass near or over the Island of Jamaica, then at 48
hours Charley is forecast to be nearing the southern end of Cuba, near the Isle of
Palms. Thus, the forecast maintains the current intensity through tomorrow, followed
by intensification to hurricane strength by 36 hours. As always, the intensification
forecast is the most uncertain aspect of tropical forecasting.

Track guidance is tightly clustered around a continued WNW track for 36 to 48 hours
followed by a bend to the NW and possibly N thereafter. This scenario is plausible
given the forecast of lower heights over the ERN U.S. by the end of the period. All
interests in the northern Caribbean and Florida Peninsula should closely monitor
future advisories on Charley.

OVERMAN

[Aquawind]

72 Hour: 26.0N 83.5W 90KT !!!!

Aquawind @ 26.3N 82.75W ...

NE Quad..I get Wasted..

[ncweatherwizard]

Well, guess I consider the panhandle from the Big Bend westward. Sorry, for the inspecificity and the lack of detail in the forecast. Hopefully, I'll have more tomorrow morning..busy day moving into the dorm today.

[Trader Ron]

Aqua,

The angle will mean a HUGE difference. It will still be a lil dicey around here.

[obxhurricane]

Hey Dolphin, thanks for the reply. It's good to be on again.

[Aquawind]

Aqua,

The angle will mean a HUGE difference. It will still be a lil dicey around here.

Related to Storm Surge for sure..Gabby had my street underwater as the entire Estero Bay was pushed in and all the canals were totally underwater here..I was at Hickory Island Beach just as they were closing it off..I expect flooding no matter the angle if it's a Cane and west of here..

[Trader Ron]

Gabby was a nasty lil twit..

[scogor]

Any of you west coast Floridians as concerned as I am about Charley slowing, intensifying, and parallelling our coast all through weekend--maybe 40 miles offshore from Naples up to the Big Bend?? Yeesh!!

[corpusbreeze]

YES THEY DO!

[Aquawind]

Any of you west coast Floridians as concerned as I am about Charley slowing, intensifying, and parallelling our coast all through weekend--maybe 40 miles offshore from Naples up to the Big Bend?? Yeesh!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=36108


READ THAT forecast!! Another bad location..UGH!!!


I called my wife and all she could say was save the Victrola..

[HurricaneQueen]

72 Hour: 26.0N 83.5W 90KT !!!!

Aquawind @ 26.3N 82.75W ...

NE Quad..I get Wasted..

Hurricane Queen: 26.1N; 81.8 W (roughly) as we are north of Naples. Are you inland or is that the natural curve of the coastline that puts you further east? Ooops, make that west of us.

[Valkhorn]

I'm not sure I understand why some of these intensity forecasts on this board aren't taking into account the affect of Cuba and Jamaica on Charley.



As you can see, Cuba may have an effect on Cuba, but I'm not sure it'll be that great if it's moving fast enough. I think it getting knocked down a category is possible though, but Charley could reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico too.

What do you guys think about the interaction of Charley with Cuba?

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 7

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 10, 2004

...Charley continuing rapidly west-northwestward...new warnings and
watches issued...

at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch are now in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning
may be required for Jamaica Wednesday morning.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the
Cayman Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 72.8 west or about
300 miles... 480 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph
...41 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Charley will be
nearing Jamaica tomorrow morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Charley could become a hurricane as it approaches Jamaica
tomorrow.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km mainly to the north of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica on Wednesday.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...16.0 N... 72.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.

[Guest]

I personally think Charley is a cane already, but whatever floats NHC's boat I guess. I would have wen't ahead and issues it as a Hurricane, this thing is gonna nail Jamaica...

[muaboy]

Anywhere from Florida to New Jersey is always a possibly.

NY, CT, MA deal with another type of storm snow not hurricanes.

[WeatherEmperor]

I suppose we just have to put our faith in the NHC forecast intensity. Intensity is almost always the single most difficult aspect to predict for a tropical system.

<RICKY>

[Aquawind]

Between old and new 41 in Bonita near Bonita Beach Road..

That GPS is not Exact for me..your right I am closer to 81.8..82.75 was a typo..and thats further west actually..probably gurggling water..lol

[cycloneye]

But why the goverment of Jamaica dont issue hurricane warnings !!!It will be late when hurricane warnings go up tommorow morning.