Bonnie Advisories

[DoctorHurricane2003]

T 10.08.2004 (TUE AUG 10 2004)
0212 UTC (0912 PM CDT)


TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (02L)

Bonnie has unexpectedly weakened over the past 6 hours. I believe Bonnie, however, will gather slightly over night, possibly to 60 MPH once again. I believe she will turn to the NE sometime in the morning, and on Thursday, make landfall between Mobile, AL and Apalachicola, FL. Max Sustained winds at landfall should be between 50 and 75 MPH (outside, 19%, chance that Bonnie would become a hurricane...but not likely).


TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY (03L)

Charley has strengthened and moved quickly during the day. This trend should continue, and Charley should become a hurricane either tonight at 11 PM, or tomorrow at 2 AM (most likely) or 5 AM. As Charley moves WNW through the Caribbean, he should strengthen and have winds of at least 120 MPH as he enters the Gulf of Mexico, unless he goes through a rapid intensification phase (36% chance). In the long term, Charley should make landfall somewhere between Biloxi, MS and Panama City, FL Sunday Afternoon, as I believe Charley will slow down as he approaches the Gulf of Mexico. Strength at landfall is a great unknown, but he will most likely be a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds (again...very wide range, many unknowns.......) somewhere between 120 and 165 MPH. DO NOT BE ALARMED! As I said, there are many unknowns this early in the forecast. Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as he approaches the Gulf Coast.

***END

[HurricaneBill]

sorry this isnt so... the weakening trend has been going on for 24 hrs and without any convection to speak off.... to say you never know is really reaching

Maybe if you removed that pole from your keester we would all get along better.

[tallywx]

Now Lawrence has to get creative and word the entire thing differently...but at the same time say the exact same thing

[WeatherEmperor]

Bonnie is not much and probably wont be much of anything. Charley, now that is something else.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

at 10 PM CDT...0300 gmt...a tropical storm watch is in effect for
northwest Florida from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the
mouth of the Suwanee River.

and the discussion that we saw earlier, LOL

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 12

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2004

an aircraft reconnaissance mission from 17 to 23z found a maximum
wind of 43 kt at 850-mb flight level and 1004 mb. Also satellite
imagery shows a sputtering very small area of deep convection.
Therefore the maximum surface wind is reduced from 45 kt to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 010/04. The track guidance remains
in good agreement about an acceleration toward the northeast in
advance of a mid latitude trough digging southward into the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast track is shifted a little
to the left of the previous advisory following a consensus of the
global track guidance models.

Bonnie has only about 24 hours to intensify before encountering
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. Since the current trend
has been for slight weakening...significant intensification is
becoming less likely. The GFDL model brings the winds to 82 kt
before landfall...but none of the other guidance shows much
strengthening. The SHIPS model GOES to only 45 kt before landfall.
The previous advisory forecast 70 kt winds before landfall and this
advisory forecast backs off to 60 kt which may still be too high.

The track and intensity forecasts require a tropical storm watch for
northwest Florida.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/0300z 25.0n 90.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 26.0n 90.1w 50 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 27.6n 89.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 29.8n 86.7w 60 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 32.5n 83.2w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 14/0000z 42.0n 75.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 15/0000z...absorbed by frontal system

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html

[Guest]

NOT....

[Derek Ortt]

not my forecast, but I will stick by it

[soonertwister]

It might just be me, but it appears that Bonnie, after being beset with hostile shearing winds, is starting to develop a symmetrical CDO over the center again this evening, and it appears that the shear is weakening significantly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

One thing I couldn't help but notice looking at the visual loop of Bonnie a bit earlier, when the LLCC was exposed by shear, was how vigorous the circulation appeared, very especially for a TS rather than a minimal cane. Bonnie may be small, but I feel she still possesses the ability to surprise us with her intensity by landfall.

It would be the height of folly to play down the chances of this particular storm being a relative non-event at this time. Things can change rapidly, and even more rapidly with very small systems, and Bonnie will be over super-warm water, with the possibility of the shear dying to near nil.

Under those circumstances, this storm is as likely as any to experience rapid or even explosive development.

For those of you in the path of this storm, I will assume that you take the necessary precautions every single time a potential hurricane event comes your way. You do, don't you?

It's not wise to fool with Mother Nature.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the tropics tonight reveals two tropical cyclones, both of which are threats to the United States over the next several days, but with very different potential impacts. One of the biggest impacts with each system will be very heavy rainfall. Florida has been water logged over the past couple of weeks and rain from tropical cyclones will only aggreviate the problem. We must remember that most people die in tropical cyclones these days not because of wind or surge, but inland freshwater flooding from heavy rains. This must be kept in mind as heavy rain amounts of up to 10-12 inches are possible in the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia with Bonnie as she combines with an approaching cold front. Meanwhile with Charley expected to be more of a threat to the Florida Peninsula, hence heavy rains could cause flooding in that area also. Daytona Beach saw up to 10 inches of rain last weekend while Flagler saw over a half foot of rain. The combination of this and an approaching tropical cyclone could mean flooding rains given the lower flash flood guidance over the peninsula. Exact amounts are still uncertain for the peninsula from Charley. But 8-12 inches is not impossible.

Looking at the current information with Tropical Storm Bonnie shows very little organization with this system today. However we just recently noticed a batch of thunderstorms redeveloped near the center of circulation. Northerly shear is the major culprit in keeping this system in check and thus pressures are not falling rapidly, hence little change in overall strength. Thunderstorms need to be co located around the center of circulation to result in much further organization and Bonnie hasn't shown much of that today into this evening. In fact maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph as of 11 PM EDT. Bonnie could intensify later tonite or tomorrow before landfall. However the expectation is for this system to stay a tropical storm right through landfall and produce a heavy rain threat for the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and potentially later this week into the Mid Atlantic coast. As of 11 PM EDT, a tropical storm watch is now in effect for northwest Florida from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Mouth of the Suwanee River. This means tropical storm force conditions with winds of 39-73 mph are possible within the next 36 hours.

Shifting our focus, Tropical Storm Charley is becoming better organized tonight with maximum sustained winds as of 8 PM EDT up to 65 mph with higher gusts in a small core northeast of the center of circulation. There's no reason why this system won't strengthen through the next several days as we have warmer water temps of 85-90 degrees, convection flaring up around the low level circulation due to good inflow. Meanwhile outflow persists upstairs around this system, which is causing the air to evacuate out of this system keeping the surface pressures low and thus further strengthening as we go on through time. New watches and warnings have been issued tonight across the western Caribbean. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are no in effect for Jamaica meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less and hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings maybe required for Jamaica later tonite or into Wednesday morning. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are now in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward including the Port-au-Prince area. This only applies for the southwest peninsula of Haiti.

At 11 M EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Charley was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 72.8 West or about 300 miles east southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Charley is moving west northwest at near 25 mph and this general motion is expected to continue. 300 miles divided by 25 mph forward speed means the center of Charley will be near Kingston, Jamaica by 11 AM EDT on Wednesday or about 12 hours from now. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Charley is forecast to become a hurricane before reaching Jamaica later Wednesday morning. Minimum central pressure is 999 mb or 29.50 inches. Above normal tides combined with large battering waves are likely along the coastals areas of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next few days. Rainfall total of 3-6 inches are likely in the path of Charley. Any interests in the western Caribbean and the Gulf Coast of the United States, mainly from Lousiana eastward to Florida are urged to stay abreast of the latest forecasts and advisories on Charley as it could become a dangerous threat between now and this upcoming weekend. Folks in the path of Charley are urged to pay special attention to this.

The highest probability of US landfall appears to be in Florida anywhere from the Panhandle to the Keys including potentially the Tampa area. Now is a time to prepare for such an event. For example, if this system is a category 1 hurricane, prepare for a 2 or a 3. If it's a cat 2, prepare for something worse just to be safe. If folks are headed to the attractions in Orlando and Lake Buena Vista near Disney World, keep an eye on the forecast and advisories from the hurricane center or your local weather service or local media. The only time WDW closed because of a hurricane was back in Floyd in September of 1999. That doesn't mean that's gonna happen and it might not happen. However we definitely need to keep an eye on this.

[Hyperstorm]

At 11pm it was the same exact discussion. Hmmm......

Didn't even think discussions on some tropical systems were written hours before the official update. That is not good as that means it is not always "Up To Date" as it SHOULD be. OK........

[WeatherNole]

Getting me all worked up for nothing!!!
Gibson Inn... Here we come!!!

After I read your post about three times - it kicked in. Brain functions are kinda slow tonight I guess.

NOW I know who you are and what you mean.

Mike

--

[Stormcenter]

Bonnie looks like she is fighting her finally battle and winning.
It's interesting to note that she continues to move due north.
The NE should have begun by now, oh well.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

[dixiebreeze]

Looks more northerly to me, too. So does Charley.

[Stormcenter]

Looks more northerly to me, too. So does Charley.

She is looking better and better by the hour and growing in size. The outflow is also improving.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 12a

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on August 11, 2004

...Bonnie moving slowly in the central Gulf...
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for northwest Florida from
the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee
River. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 25.2 north...longitude 90.4 west or about
280 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Bonnie is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A turn toward the
northeast and an increase in forward speed is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Bonnie is a small storm and tropical storm force winds extend
outward up to only 30 miles from the center.

The minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.2 N... 90.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[Weather4Life23]

Yes and Charley is only slightly furthur north than it was at 11.

11 PM coordinates
16.0N 72.8W

2am coordinates
16.4N 73.8W

[michaelwmoss]

Wonder if Bonnie is one of the smallest tropical storms on record? Does anyone know of any that have been smaller?

[Aquawind]

URNT11 KNHC 110559
97779 05594 41272 9020/ 14800 10011 1814/ /2538
RMK AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 01

27.2N 90.2W

ESE winds @ 11kts

[senorpepr]

URNT11 KNHC 110559
97779 05594 41272 9020/ 14800 10011 1814/ /2538
RMK AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 01

27.2N 90.2W

ESE winds @ 11kts

Of course... those are winds at nearly 5000 feet...