A Spark maybe...........

[Valkhorn]

Can we please at least be somewhat reasonable. There is 0 chance of a major hurricane coming from Bonnie. Charley has a chance of being a major cane for the GOM, but not Bonnie

Pathetic, really.

Well I'd hate to tell you guys but it's not over until it's over.

Also, Derek, there is not a 0% chance of this becoming a major Hurricane. There is never a 0% chance of that until it is completely gone. Even if it's less than 1% odds, the odds are STILL there.

Why do you think the NHC does not put 0% in their forecast probabilities? Why do you think they usually put <5%?

It does have odds, and I say until it's gone you should never write it off. Remember, Hurricane Edouard in 1996 made it from a Category 1 to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours. Rapidly intensifying systems are easily the hardest systems to forecast intensity.

Not to say it will happen, but there is not a 0% chance of that either.

[Stormcenter]

Can we please at least be somewhat reasonable. There is 0 chance of a major hurricane coming from Bonnie. Charley has a chance of being a major cane for the GOM, but not Bonnie

Pathetic, really.

Well I'd hate to tell you guys but it's not over until it's over.

Also, Derek, there is not a 0% chance of this becoming a major Hurricane. There is never a 0% chance of that until it is completely gone. Even if it's less than 1% odds, the odds are STILL there.

Why do you think the NHC does not put 0% in their forecast probabilities? Why do you think they usually put <5%?

It does have odds, and I say until it's gone you should never write it off. Remember, Hurricane Edouard in 1996 made it from a Category 1 to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours. Rapidly intensifying systems are easily the hardest systems to forecast intensity.

Not to say it will happen, but there is not a 0% chance of that either.

Good post Valkhorn.

[michaelwmoss]

Definitely! This system is poised to strengthen quite significantly tomorrow IF UL winds subside (at least temporarily) as forecast. This system might surprise MANY who think it's already done with. I wouldn't be so complacent about it as we have seen much poorer organized storms becoming significant players in the Gulf of Mexico.....Think Alicia, Anita, etc.......

This could become a hurricane easily.....

Indeed. I think this one is going to surprise us, just like Alex did when he moved away into Colder waters and got stronger.

That circulation is quite strong and tightly wound. It maybe able to survive even increasing shear (Already has)

I'm still holding on to my prediction of Landfall near Pensecola, FL Cat 1 status

[michaelwmoss]

The thing I notice the most about Bonnie is that she seems to have found her favorite spot. She hasn't moved much over the last several hours. If that continues, I'm thinking she might go further east than some people think. The NHC shifted their sweet spot slightly to the west, but I don't see it being the amateur that I am.

Bonnie does need to move more though soon. If she stays there much longer, Ocean Upwelling will affect the intensity

[michaelwmoss]

Does anyone know when the next RECON will investigate Bonnie & Charley?

Sounds like partners in Crime ha ha

[Thunder44]

Do you think AccuWeather.com hurricane experts Dan Kottlowski and Joe Bastardi still think Bonnie's winds will reach 100mph? Or have they lost it? It may be intensifying a little but she's got a lot of work to do to get up to that speed.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... .asp?iws=1

I think that was from what they thought earlier Tuesday. But JB last night is thinking of backing off that forecast after yesterday's weakening. We'll have to see what he think later this morning. I personally don't think it has much of chance of getting that strong anymore.

[michaelwmoss]

Has any of the recent Recons discussed how large the eye is now (Be it is entirely cloud filled)
?