Charley Advisories

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WeatherNole
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MSLP map

#721 Postby WeatherNole » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:22 pm

Here is the GFS MSLP 1000 - 500mb graphic for the same time - Fri 18Z (2pm)
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Image

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Mike
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wayoutfront

#722 Postby wayoutfront » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:22 pm

Yeah DT.. you ready to go out on a limb??
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#723 Postby Weather4Life23 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:24 pm

From there it heads all the way up the east coast into the north east. If this verifies I wonder how strong Charley will still be over NC and then up in the north east.
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#724 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:27 pm

IF he swings this far out to the west THEN turns NW then N then NNE off the coast -- as opposed to say thru central FL...

First Guess for intensity at time of landfall as of 1220 am AUG 11

90% Cat 1 or higher
65% cat 2 or higher
45% cat 3 or higher
25% Cat 4 or higher

CAT 5 canes are NOT forecastable in terms of Probabilities...
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#725 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:30 pm

Thank You DT
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Weather4Life23
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Impressive Water Vapor Loop of Charley

#726 Postby Weather4Life23 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:42 pm

Wow take a look at this link. Charley is expanding and really looks like a hurricane. It looks to heading right for Jamaica. Look Out! :eek:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
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dixiebreeze
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Charley's track....

#727 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:58 pm

Beginning to wonder if Charley will make it as far east as the west end of Cuba:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg
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#728 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:01 am

Don't expect this to last much more than the early morning hours....
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Weather4Life23
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#729 Postby Weather4Life23 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:01 am

do u mean the east end of cuba?
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#730 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:04 am

No. The west end.
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#731 Postby Weather4Life23 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:05 am

ok so you mean you think it could miss Cuba totally. Just trying to clarify on what you meant sorry.
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dixiebreeze
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#732 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:30 am

Actually, I meant I wondered if it might turn N into Cuba before it got to the west end.
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#733 Postby Weather4Life23 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:31 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Actually, I meant I wondered if it might turn N into Cuba before it got to the west end.

Ok thanks for clearing that up.
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#734 Postby MWatkins » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:31 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Actually, I meant I wondered if it might turn N into Cuba before it got to the west end.


Think you are right on track Dixie...it probably will.

MW
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dixiebreeze
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Charley reorganizing? Nearing the DR?

#735 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:39 am

He appears to be a bit northerly, but my perspective might be off:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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Aquawind
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Recon getting ready for Charley

#736 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:45 am

So we have a 06Z flight departure from..St Croix..like 2am edt they take off and should be getting obs from the Storm in what 2 hours..~4am..maybe sooner? Bring on the Facts.. 8-)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I am thinking Cane @ 5am ..gonna be real close if not..even if the tops warm a bit..
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boca
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what will Se Fl experience from Charley

#737 Postby boca » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:49 am

looks like a move more nw too me,the system looks big and it would affect alot of Fl even if it were off SW FL
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wayoutfront

#738 Postby wayoutfront » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:50 am

hes getting into some warmer waters now

Image
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NorthGaWeather

#739 Postby NorthGaWeather » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:51 am

Is that showing mid 70s temps over the Gulf? If so then its not right.
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#740 Postby Weather4Life23 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:52 am

11 PM coordinates
16.0N 72.8W

2am coordinates
16.4N 73.8W

Not too much furthur north then earlier.
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