FXUS62 KMLB 110640
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...ATTENTION FOCUSSING UPON FAST MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLEY...
.DISCUSSION...TODAY/TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS AND MOVE
INLAND. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION/COLLISION
EXPECTED FROM AROUND LAKE GEORGE TO EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PAINTED HIGHEST POPS/QPF
THIS AREA. LATE DAY TRANSLATION OF STORMS WILL BE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST GIVEN CONTINUED 15 KT W/SW STEERING FLOW AND HAVE INDICATED
SCATTERED EARLY EVENING POPS FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD
COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
THU...WITH TROPICAL STORM BONNIE PROJECTED TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...A STRENGTHENING
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTH/50
PERCENT SOUTH AS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS.
FRI...LATEST TPC GUIDANCE TAKES TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLEY TOWARDS THE
TAMPA AREA. WITH THAT TRACK...FORECAST AREA WOULD BE IN AN AREA
FAVORED FOR TC-SPAWNED TORNADOES ALONG WITH THE MORE TYPICAL
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND-FALLING
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
HELP TO DRAW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY NORTHWARD.
NOTE: GIVEN INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER RANGE TC
FORECASTING...POLICY DICTATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 34 KT BEYOND 72
HOURS. IF TRACK HOLDS...WINDS WILL BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS
AS IMPACT MOVES WITHIN 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND TRACK/INTENSITY
UNCERTAINTY LESSENS. STAY TUNED.
SAT...MODEL AND TPC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY WILL ACCELERATE
UP THE EAST COAST. TRAILING MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE PENINSULA...HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
SUN-TUE...RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS MIDWEEK WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE BY FRIDAY AS TC CHARLEY GAINS LATITUDE. INCREASING WINDS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE SEAS TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10
FT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS CHARLEY MOVES NORTH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 74 90 74 / 50 30 60 30
MCO 91 74 91 74 / 50 20 60 30
MLB 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 40
VRB 91 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
Robert
