NHC/Global models could shift back west a little...

[Guest]

If CHarley continues at this current forward rate of speed, it will out race even the fastest of nhc/global models, putting it ahead of the extrap/prognosticated position by NHC. What this could mean is a system which out races the trough ever so slightly to adjust the impact area some 100 miles or so to the west. Near the western fla panhandle. I feel like the greatest threat will remain near the western panhandle region. You can already see some hints of charley out racing the trough on tonight new gfs. it's already ahead of 18z prog at 42 hours. Food for thought...

[frederic79]

I have to wonder how well the global models deal with not only a very fast moving storm, but a rapidly deepening storm at that. Right now, Charley is moving .3 degrees north for every 1 degree west.

[Nimbus]

There is an ULL rolling west ahead of Charley. Although Charley has been catching up to the low, he should slow down enough as he intensifies so that the ULL provides little steering.

North of the ULL from 20 degrees north there is a high pressure area that will likely get squeezed into some weak ridging ahead of the front. Charley has been a straight shooter so far, and there is not much steering that would enhance his recurve till he gets north of Key West.

Storm surge along the west coast of Florida will be a problem if Charley develops into a major hurricane. Even with an offshore eyewall a major Hurricane can produce 15 foot storm surge and hurricane force winds 100 miles from the center. Tampa bay is a southern facing bay that is particularly prone to flooding from a storm with a northern track like this.

[stormcloud]

This Wednesday morning, Joe Barstardi backed down from his earlier thought of Charley heading for the west Gulf. He said that Charley is moving too fast for that now, and Florida is under the gun.

[jlauderdal]

This Wednesday morning, Joe Barstardi backed down from his earlier thought of Charley heading for the west Gulf. He said that Charley is moving too fast for that now, and Florida is under the gun.

Crow for Joe. Well everyone has had their share of it this year.

[Air Force Met]

This Wednesday morning, Joe Barstardi backed down from his earlier thought of Charley heading for the west Gulf. He said that Charley is moving too fast for that now, and Florida is under the gun.

Yeah...before it was a question of timing with the thought of it slowing down and missing the trough. That's not the issue anymore with this fast foreward speed.