7:00 AM CDT STORM2K TROPICAL UPDATE, August 11, 2004

[vbhoutex]

7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 11, 2004


Tropical Storm Bonnie is still a small compact storm. She is located at 25.7N, 90.5W moving North around 6 mph in the central Gulf of Mexico about 265 miles South-Southwest of the
mouth of the Mississippi River. Ts Bonnie is expected to begin a motion to the Northeast later today as the incoming trough and cold front near the upper Gulf coast. Top winds in Bonnie are currently at 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend about 45 miles from the center of this small compact storm. A slow increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours as Bonnie continues over the hot GOM waters. The minimum central pressure measured in Bonnie is 1000mb or 29.53 inches. Tropical storm watches are in effect from the mouth of the Suwanee River Westward to the Alabama/Florida state line. With Bonnie showing some signs of strengthening and increasing winds again everyone in the watch area should pay close attention to Bonnie's progress as she continues her move toward the Florida panhandle and begin preparations for strong tropical storm force winds expected tomorrow in the watch area. Tropical storm warnings can be expected later today and a possibility of a Hurricane watch being issued exists if Bonnie continues her strengthening trend.

In the Caribbean Tropical Storm Charley is approaching Jamaica this morning. Charley is located near 16.9N, 75.4W and continues moving in a West-Northwest direction at around 24
mph and is expected to continue this motion for the next 24 hours with a turn toward the Northwest expected after that. The estimated central pressure of Charley is 999mb or 29.50 inches. Charley continues to organize and is expected to continue this trend. Current winds are estimated at 65 mph with higher gusts to 75 mph in some squalls. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 115 miles from the center. A Tropical storm warning is in effect for the Southwest peninsula of Haiti. A tropical storm warning and Hurricane watch is in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman islands with Hurricane watches and warnings expected to be raised in portions of Cuba later today. A Hurricane watch is effect for the Dry Tortuga's and the Florida Keys to Craig Key. Jamaica and the Cayman islands can also expect large and dangerous battering waves along their coasts today as Charley moves by these islands. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches can be expected as well. Charley is expected to continue strengthening and could become a Hurricane later today and could possibly strengthen into a major Hurricane as he moves into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. For this reason all interests in the Florida Keys and Southern and the Western Gulf coast of Florida should also be monitoring the progress of Charley closely in order to be able to take any precautions necessary in a timely manner should Charley come their way. The environment ahead of Charley is quite favorable for continued strengthening.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin through Thursday.

This is NOT an OFFICIAL product of the NHC. For OFFICIAL products contact the NHC or your local weather offices.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)