Bonnie Advisories

[washington]

The waters near the cost is warm to i think bonnie will be a hurricane right before landfall.

[Hyperstorm]

John Neese on TWC just said a buoy very close to the center of Bonnie is reporting 47 mph sustained winds with gusts over 50(he said the number but I wasn't paying attention). Look for at least a slight increase in winds on the next advisory.

In other words, you were still recovering from what you just heard.

[soonertwister]

I posted yesterday evening about how Bonnie might be entering a strengthening phase, and the even when exposed the circulation looked quite vigorous. Then Bonnie looked horrible for a few hours. Since then she's done nothing but get stronger. Pressure now is just one millibar higher than Charlie, and unless the shear comes back, it's nothing but clear sailing from here until landfall for her.

Being such a compact storm, it's going to be very hard to predict intensity on this one, but I'm going to guess that the estimates may have been a bit on the low side.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...

[The Dark Knight]

LOL.....

[Brent]

John Neese on TWC just said a buoy very close to the center of Bonnie is reporting 47 mph sustained winds with gusts over 50(he said the number but I wasn't paying attention). Look for at least a slight increase in winds on the next advisory.

In other words, you were still recovering from what you just heard.

No, I was running to this thing to post it.

I think he said 53 mph.

[chadtm80]

Buoy Data

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/gombuoy.html

[Thunder44]

I heard him he said South winds 47mph sustained with gust of 54mph.

[GulfHills]

WOW.....I just got up and couldn't believe it. She looks almost the size of Charlie. Guess I better get in gear and start putting things away outside.

[c5Camille]

looks like Bonnie orrt to become a Cat 1
before it's all said and done...

[washington]

If your in tally the nws has put up a hurricane watch for us so please get ready for bonnie because the water near the cost are also warm i expect it to be a hurricane right before landfall.

[Lowpressure]

She will have impact on a larger area than previously thought. I would expect her wind radius to expand more looking at the current structure and trend.

[washington]

If your in tally the nws has put up a hurricane watch for us so please get ready for bonnie because the water near the cost are also warm i expect it to be a hurricane right before landfall.

[Janie34]

You can't turn your back on things like this for a moment. They will surprise you. It seems as though predictions of Bonnie's demise were exaggerated.

[c5Camille]

here is the link.... it's currently 40 with gusts to 46
seas are building too...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001

it looks like this link is getting many many hits and it's very slow to
download right now...

[CaptinCrunch]

TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-111530-

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...TROPICAL STORM BONNIE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH...A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED LATER TODAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST FROM THE
ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...
GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...
MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT
THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 10 AM CDT NEAR
LAGUNA BEACH. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
INTO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AT THIS TIME BONNIE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH THOSE EXPECTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO
CREATE VERY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. AS BONNIE TRAVERSES FROM THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. STORM TOTALS BY
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE OF 4 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER OVER THE EASTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BEYOND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTER. THEREFORE...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN BONNIE'S TRACK COULD SHIFT
THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY AROUND 3 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE UP TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS. ALSO ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE LOCAL TIDES FOR THURSDAY FOLLOW.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDES AT 142 AM AND 1221 PM...LOW TIDES AT 605 AM AND 751 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDES AT 507 AM AND 1203 PM...LOW TIDES AT 807 PM AND 949 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE AT 751 AM...LOW TIDE AT 710 PM.

SEAS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12 TO
15 FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE
WATER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND UNGUARDED BEACHES. A
RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 11 AM CDT.

[Lowpressure]

Not exaggerated, she looked terrible yesterday. She has made a remarkable comeback and the LLC seems to be under the CDO. She is a very different storm than when those remarks were made by myself and others.

[The Dark Knight]

I'm not suprised that it is... Since Dr. John Neese mentioned it, there are a lot of Pro Mets and people like us (Amateur) looking at it....

[Janie34]

My point is that these types of things were to be expected with Bonnie, it isn't all that surprising.

[Stormchaser16]

To me it would appear the circ. is just about under the deepest(but warming) convection right now..... I think Bonnie had a HUGE strengthening phase overnight, and will level off for a few hours now, then begin to gradually increase in strength later today.

[Anonymous]

Go Bonnie go !

Go Charlie go ! We certainly could use some rainfall from both these systems here in the SE states