Bonnie Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

ACTUALLY..... it only shows a 94 knot storm at the 950 level.... NOT surface winds....

DOnt know the ACTUAL calculation to get to surface, but thats actually not that signifigant

[Josephine96]

Be very careful if it comes your way Dean

[Dean4Storms]

You got that right Girl, if she does, so be it but please keep Charley off our backs. If Charley ends up this way, we could have alot of roofs with shingle and structural damage already along with broken windows and such, very saturated ground, e.t.c..... May not be anything left standing if he gave us a shot too!!

[Baytown Bug]

Looks like Bonnie's center is starting to show on the N.O. radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klix.shtml

[Stormcenter]

Holy Crap Dean!!! It's coming right for you!!!

She better start turning soon if she going to follow that track.
Right "now" she is still headed primarily northward. LOOKOUT MS/AL coastline just in case she doesn't turn quick enough.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Dmetal81]

These winds would be 15-25% below what is listed at ground level (30m) according to the webpage, so still hurricane force at landfall, and then more hurricane/strong tropical force winds on the east side as it runs up the interior of the coast and accelerates.

[soonertwister]

Doesn't the GFDL also dissipate Charley in short order?

I wouldn't put too much faith in any one model. Model agreement or consensus would seem to be much more of a valuable asset.

[Hyperstorm]

Exactly! The system is starting to take the CLASSIC pre-hurricane shape as of this very moment. This system needs to have Hurricane Watches issued soon for it. It's a similar situation to Alex 12-24 hours before it became a hurricane.

[Stormchaser16]

Thanks Dmetal...... I knew it was somewhat less at the surface.....

If its 15% below.... then its about a 79KT storm.....at the surface

[Colin]

Yesterday Bonnie looked like a thunderstorm, not she looks like she is approaching strong TS status! Crazy how things can change in less than 12 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

ACTUALLY..... it only shows a 94 knot storm at the 950 level.... NOT surface winds....

DOnt know the ACTUAL calculation to get to surface, but thats actually not that signifigant

It works out to around 90mph after you get it to the surface. A 95kt= 109mph and you take roughly 20% from that. Still it's close enough and much srtonger than most of us thought last night.

[Stormchaser16]

GFDL does anything BUT dissipate Charley...

On the contrary it has it hitting FL as a major hurricane with a second landfall south of myrtle beach,SC as a strong hurricane!

[Stormchaser16]

Yes Dean, and now Bonnie is taking on what i would consider a dangerous shape.... it looks like it wants to become a comma shaped cane

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to keep in mind is the pick up in speed, if she weakens from it, great. But if she doesn't it could help her attain this wind speed. Another thing would be a good possibility of stronger gusts maybe approaching 110mph especially right allong the coast just to the east of where the center landfalls.

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA...AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42001
...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS STRENGTHENED. BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 41 KT WITH A GUST
TO 52 KT. GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING A 10 MB PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BONNIE AND BUOY 42001 INDICATE NEAR 50-KT WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY
INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/05. IT APPEARS THAT BONNIE HAS
PASSED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN
MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...IF IT HASN'T DONE SO ALREADY. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LANDFALL
OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE MID-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY 24 HOURS...BONNIE COULD MAKE A
SHARP TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK AND THIS SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY EVALUATED FOR THE NEXT
ADVISORY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL STROM WATCH AREA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION...TOPS AS COLD AS -83C...THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTER THIS MORNING. IF RECON FINDS AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS...BEFORE
WEAKENING OCCURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
FACTORS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY
ARE -- BETTER INNER-CORE WIND FIELD ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY
ONGOING...DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER...LOW SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND BONNIE PASSING OVER A
WARMER GULF EDDY IN 12-18 HOURS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.9N 90.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 86.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 32.3N 83.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 36.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html

[Stormchaser16]

Wasnt it already at 50MPH?

[fwbbreeze]

Hey Dean, I am in Destin with ya. With all the rain we have had in the past two days the ground is super saturated. Hope the winds dont get too strong or some locals could loose a few trees due to the wet conditions.

[Dean4Storms]

Too weak, she's already at 50kts with little shear today, very warm SST's and convection on the increase, can only strengthen. Looks like she will approach 80 mph to me.

[rbaker]

in fact looking at sat pics, seems to be weakness where the band of rain is over fla panhandle, if you notice the storm is taking on a ne-sw look which usually depicts which way its going to move, however westerlies are fast approaching, which could turn it even more towards a ene direction in big bend area, while it rides along that trough axis