Charley Advisories

Stormchaser16 · #881 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:13 am

Theres NO data to suggest hes a hurricane yet

#882 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:14 am

My vote is major hurricane...125 sustained.

Stormchaser16 · #883 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:14 am

Thatd be pretty bad..... and whats your landfall spot?

c5Camille · #884 Postby **c5Camille** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:15 am

central florida is just as likely as south florida
and Mobile Ala. right now...

Josephine96 · #885 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:15 am

Hey AFM.. If this thing does explosively develop.. Us Floridians could be in trouble..

Scott_inVA · #886 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:17 am

DT wrote:
snip....

Since 18z Tuesday GFS the GFS operational model -- which within 72 hrs has been VERY good over the last 3 years-- but past 72 hrs it is not -- began showing a WEST trend. This trend continued last night and this morning at 6z.
DT

I think the most important point's brought up by David's excellent post are the tropical models frequently seen (done by me and others) are not good with synoptic patterns over CONUS and must be viewed with caution...especially +D3 near/over land.

And, the GFS (displayed as the old AVN on the maps I do) continues to rule the roost inside D3. This is the third season the GFS has been very good inside 72 hours.

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

HurricaneGirl · #887 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:18 am

If Charley has 110 mph winds at landfall, let's say at Tampa, how strong would the winds be when it passes over Jacksonville?

Website · #888 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:19 am

goodlife wrote:
Brent wrote:DT, your scaring me. A Cat 3 hurricane moving at 15-20 mph will bring me hurricane force winds. It did in 1995 with Opal. I can do without that. Mobile/Pensacola/Destin landfall with the system moving NE would take it very close to me.

at least you'll be on the dry side of the storm...

No I'm on the AL/GA stateline. Opal came ashore in Pensacola and we were 35 miles east of the eye. If it makes landfall Panama City eastward and is moving NE, I'll be on the weak side.

Josephine96 · #889 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:21 am

HG.. It depends how fast it is moving.. It typically can lose 1 category for every 50 miles..

But if it's moving as fast as it is now.. Who knows.. It may be a strong TS when it arrives..

Just my amateur opinion

#890 Postby **seaswing** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:25 am

A great inland wind model from NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

SouthernWx · #891 Postby **SouthernWx** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:28 am

At least a cat-3 IMO....and could be even stronger.

The ramifications of Charley missing Jamaica and passing near/ south of Grand Cayman toward western Cuba mean it will pass over extremely warm sst's....waters with very high heat content.

While shear will increase after Charley recurves and accelerates NNE toward the coast.....that doesn't neccesarily mean he'll weaken. In 1960, Donna maintained cat-3 status all the way from North Carolina to New England while accelerating to over 35 mph. In 1954, hurricane Hazel was moving over 45 mph at landfall near Myrtle Beach (SC), and had 135 mph sustained winds.

If this hurricane indeed "bombs" over the NW Caribbean...say to 150 mph or more, it won't have much time to weaken as it accelerates toward western Florida. To make matters even more dangerous, the sst's offshore the Florida west coast from Naples to Apalachicola are at or above 85°. That extremely warm water will help to offset any weakening caused by increasing shear.

IMO Charley is potentially a very dangerous hurricane....and appears destined for a highly populated coastline that hasn't experienced even a 115 mph category 3 hurricane in more than 40 years. That frankly scares the daylights out of me....because even a 115 mph hurricane means a 10-15' storm surge along the Florida coast between Cedar Key and Naples (due to the shallow slope of the GOM offshore).

HurricaneGirl · #892 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:29 am

Thanks John and seaswing! Added to my favorites! 8-)

Josephine96 · #893 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:31 am

This is another thing.. Even if the storm makes landfall in the Tampa Bay area..

The water in Tampa Bay is very warm.. so as it's coming on shore.. it may actually still strengthen before it hits the land..

I have only experienced 1 hurricane before and it was a Cat 1.. but the thought of experiencing a major does excite me.. but also sends a very cold shiver down my back..

Derek Ortt · #894 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:31 am

It will weaken significantly over FL

chris_fit · #895 Postby **chris_fit** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:32 am

Don't Think The Bay will make any difference Josephine.... It's like a Lake... The probably will be the size of the bay :roll:

Stormchaser16 · #896 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:34 am

Forget the bay

Charley is about to head into warmer waters now, which should help it to begin to signifigantly strengthen

Josephine96 · #897 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:35 am

True SC.. Maybe Tampa Bay won't help by the way lol.. But I was just examining all the perameters

MortisFL · #898 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:45 am

Newest GFDL has Charley crossing SW Florida near 134 mph in around 55 hours.

TheWeatherZone · #899 Postby **TheWeatherZone** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:46 am

link please? Thanks

Mike~

Matthew5 · #900 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:46 am

Omg

Charley Advisories

Re: WHY the west TREND in the models with CHARLEY is RE

GFDL = SW FL at 134 mph

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