Bonnie Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

11/1745 UTC 26.1N 89.6W T3.0/3.0 BONNIE -- Atlantic Ocean

The 1 p.m. says she should start to rapidly accelerate within the next 12 to 24 hours.

[dixiebreeze]

I'm afraid she will reach 'cane status before landfall. Worried about relatives in Ft. Walton Beach -- hope they are prepared.

[CaptinCrunch]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...BONNIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT ARE 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATE THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE FORMING. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BONNIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
BONNIE REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST
TO 67 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF BONNIE
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N... 89.5W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

[fwbbreeze]

Hey Dixie, us here in the FWB/Destin area are ready.....as far as the tourists are concerned, well thats another story!!

[CaptinCrunch]

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest IR Radar Loop of TS Bonnie

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[soonertwister]

I'm actually starting to think that Bonnie may go to the right extreme of the possible forecast track.

I'm not sure if this is possible or not, but with Charley approaching from the SE, it seems like the interacting influence between these storms might make Bonnie want to veer more to the right. That plus I don't think the trough is as strong as what it was supposed to be. A couple of days ago, Bonnie was supposed to be absorbed into the trough by tomorrow noon. Not gonna happen.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 111814
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1814Z
B. 26 DEG 34 MIN N
89 DEG 26 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1483 M
D. 40 KT
E. 151 DEG 039 NM
F. 196 DEG 45 KT
G. 157 DEG 031 NM
H. 1007 MB
I. 16 C/ 1530 M
J. 20 C/ 1556 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF984 0802A BONNIE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 72 KT SE QUAD 1631Z

But the pressure is very high 1007 mbs.

[rtd2]

MAY be shearing a bit and any banding or wrapping may have gave a good gust

[tallywx]

Not sure if there's enough time for that to happen. Latest two recon. fixes at 26 24min N, 89 34min W and 26 34min N, 89 26min W, respectively. Geometrically, that means she's moving N of NE...(i.e. more NNE than ENE). Additionally, those two fixes occurred within 90 minutes of each other, meaning that she traveled 19 mph/hour. She's booking it now.

[tallywx]

Yeah, I don't really understand the rising pressure. Perhaps the dropsondes aren't hitting the center (which can happen in tiny storms). Does anyone know how to calculate an 850 mb extrapolated pressure from 850 mph heights? That info. is also given in those vortex messages.

[soonertwister]

I think the 3.0/3.0 numbers are probably low. The only puzzling thing is that the pressure is still at 1000 mb. But with 65 mph winds, it's safe to say considering where Bonnie is and her clear path to the coast, that she isn't likely to weaken unless significant sheer develops.

I not only think that Bonnie will be a cane, I think that cat-2 is very possible and cat-3 is not out of the question. Bonnie's worst enemy is time, but I'm half-betting that she will turn more to the east than expected (due to the proximity of Charley) thus buying more time to develop.

It's not too far-fetched to envision both Bonnie and Charley (why couldn't they have used Clyde, it would have been PERFECT) making US landfall and ending up as hurricanes again in the western Atlantic, still a threat to the eastern shore.

For a late storm season, it sure is getting interesting!

[rtd2]

I thought flight level was around 700(mb)??

[caneman]

Man, I hope I'm see things but the #'s don't lie. I sure hope this doesn't come calling between Cedar key and Tampa and then a day or two later Charley comes a calling. Man I know we're long overdue but I'd hate to see us make it up this way.

[tallywx]

It varies. As for extrapolating pressure, using the 850 mb height, I got an extrapolated pressure of 1006 mb. So it checks out.

[bahamaswx]

If i recall correctly, interacting TC's in the N. hemisphere rotate anti-clockwise around a central pivot between them (closer to the stronger storm, obviously), thus forcing Bonnie to the south and west, not east. I wouldn't expect any significant interaction between them anyway.

[dixiebreeze]

Hey Dixie, us here in the FWB/Destin area are ready.....as far as the tourists are concerned, well thats another story!!

Glad to hear that, fwbbreeze. She may turn more east, but I think the Panhandle will take a hit.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 111808
A. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (TWO)
B. 11/1715Z (52)
C. 26.0N/8
D. 89.7W/4
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS -11/1715Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.4 (EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION)

PIATT


TPNT KGWC 111752
A. TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY (THREE)
B. 11/1715Z (55)
C. 16.6N/3
D. 76.7W/0
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS -11/1715Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/ PBO BNDNG EYE/ANMTN. POSSIBLE EYE FORMATION EVIDENT. CNVCTN
WRAPS 1.05 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (UNIFORM CDO CLD REGION)

PIATT

[seaswing]

I heard that! I am not in a flood plain right now but I could be if two were to pass that close in proximity!

[tallywx]

Not true. After the ENE jog, the last two recon. fixes put her at 26.1N, 89.55W, followed by 26.6N, 89.45W. If anything, that's NNE.