Bonnie Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

now been updated to reflect the more current trends, 70-75kt at landfall

[caneman]

Not true. After the ENE jog, the last two recon. fixes put her at 26.1N, 89.55W, followed by 26.6N, 89.45W. If anything, that's NNE.

OK, I missed the last fix. However, Water Vapor loop is pretty telling. I still think it will be on the Eastern side of the warning area.

[Brent]

now been updated to reflect the more current trends, 70-75kt at landfall

I agree.

I hope after Charley we have a couple of days of calm, I am going to probably sleep half the weekend.

[tallywx]

I agree. I would put the "point of most likely impact" to be anywhere between Cape San Blas/Apalachicola and say...Keaton Beach.

[dixiebreeze]

northerly? Or is it my imagination.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest radar loop of Bonnie shows her moving more E now rather then NE


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[CaptinCrunch]

I think the Cold front pushing down is steering bonnie to a more easterly direction.

[Nimbus]

This possible scenario has been mentioned in the last few days, lets see what the NHC has to say at 5 PM. An easterly track has less shear so there could be consequences..

[Steve Cosby]

Seems like it more easterly than northerly.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

[Frank P]

Looks ENE to me.... not much northerly component at the moment as I see the vis sat loop from GOES.

[Steve Cosby]

Bastardi was saying this morning that driving Bonnie into the flow from the jet to the north would more likely enhance Bonnie rather than shear it. I didn't quite understand it all but he seemed to be saying Bonnie was heading into a "favorable" area of the jet.

[bahamaswx]

We'll see a cane out of Bonnie yet.

[CaptinCrunch]

as this front continues to move south Bonnie has no place to go but east, and with Charley moving to the WNW it to will be caught in the southern jet turning it back toward FL. The big qusetion is will this front hang long enought to steer it in the same path or will it turn more toward the north towards Mobile or Panama City?

[Dean4Storms]

I know you meant Sat. loop and not radar loop, but Bonnie is still moving NE. I even bit on it earlier but what we are seeing is a series of small vortices spiralling around her and the west to east shear on top of that makes it appear that she is moving more easterly. Actually you can see on the latest visible that her apparent center is almost exposed on the NW corner of the convective cloud tops and looks to be moving NE.

[rtd2]

she's getting pushed around and apart again!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Thunder44]

She looks fine, she is a small storm, so it get to be compact, which more a sign of intensification, than weakening.

[rtd2]

interesting theory?

[CaptinCrunch]

HURRICANE WARNING
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-120400-

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...BONNIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH THURSDAY MORNING...

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND COAST FROM THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...
GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...
MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL BORDER...EAST TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER INLAND
AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. BONNIE
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH OR GREATER BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF
BONNIE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 9 AM CDT NEAR PANAMA CITY BEACH.
THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO AND
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

[GalvestonDuck]

*snickers*

I was scratching my head when I first read your post title. Knowing you're in Tarrant County, I couldn't figure out how in the heck you guys had a local hurricane statement.

[tallywx]

The warning most relevant to my particular location inland Tallahassee is the following:

AN INLAND HURRICANE HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1125 PM EDT (1025 PM CDT) TONIGHT FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

WASHINGTON...JACKSON...CALHOUN...LIBERTY...GADSDEN...LEON...MADISON AND LAFAYETTE.

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT ITS PREDICTED STRENGTH...BONNIE SHOULD SPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM GUSTS TO SOME INLAND SECTIONS. THIS INLAND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN BY 8 OR 9 AM EDT (7 OR 8 AM CDT) AND SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHEAST.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SHELTERS...AND IF HOME TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OTHER DWELLING THAT PROVIDES LITTLE PROTECTION FROM FLYING GLASS
AND DEBRIS...DEVELOP PLANS FOR A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SHELTER.

THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT.