Charley Advisories

[wxcsi]

Its bait b/c he is well lying and twsiting what I said.

The fact of the manner is that I express many idea here that I might not if I was in TPC . I think it called freedom of speech or something.

Second what is it that I said that was sooo bad about TPC? That I think its unwise? Oh no NOT that....

Third I think YOU would have to grant that I have argued a further west trend before the re-curve begins.

wxcsi attempt to tie in my argument for a further west trend as something that I am saying only NOW at 5 PM based solely ON THE ECMWF MODEL .

Clearly that is a Lie.

DT, please don't take the bait above.

I just want to express that your forecasts have been superb not just this year but last year as well.

WX, he wasn't saying that Houston was definitely getting hit by a cat 5 hurricane. It's possible based on the EURO, which did have Isabel right. But, I do agree with OHD, wait another day before jumping on it.

DT, again. Your forecasts are SUPERB.

He's more often than not right.

Why is that "bait"? He presented his argument clearly and without namecalling. He did it rather well actually. ANd I'm sure DT will rebutt in the same manner. Just because he disagrees with DT doesn't mean its "bait". He presented his opinion.

No, it was not bait, but you certainly are a hungry fish!

My legitimate questions were what would you expect NHC to do?

You did not answer that. They explained why the track remains essentially unchanged despite the more south latitude initially.

My second question was did you see the actual ECMWF initialization? If you had, I just wanted to know how you saw the 12z initialization so quickly. You didn't answer the question.

My third question was how do you get a Cat-4/Cat-5 from the EC sfc prog?
You did answer that question for me...thanks.

While I know a "little" about weather, I was not trying to bait you, just trying to ask some questions on a news group to get some info.

If I may ask another question, do you think the storm is going to TX?

I'm new here...Sorry!

Who is MT by the way?

M

[sprink52]

Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties combined have a population of about 5 million people. Throw in Lee & Charlotte Counties and you're talking about a devastating affect on about 7 million people!!

A weather event such as this can have ripple effects that not only impact the rest of this country but the free world as well.

Remember how Andrew changed the insurance industry in tis country for ever!!??

I can tell you from experience, surviving the storm is the easiest part of the experience. Imagine a few million people being with out electricity, water, sewer, gasoline, etc for 5-7 days!! Terms like Marshal Law, National Guard, looting, mosquitos, etc.

Hopefully this will be a minimal event...but look off the coast of Africa for next weeks episode....be safe...be prepared.

[kittcat]

Stormernie - You are the eagle eye guy. I remember you spotted something last year way before any one else. Keep up the good work!

[Guest]

LOL....
Nice try.

You accused me of SCARING HEADLINES.... we all know you werent the least bit intersted in my view of what TPC should or should not do...


No I didnt see the 12z ecwmf Intial.

[JTD]

DT, please don't take the bait above.

I just want to express that your forecasts have been superb not just this year but last year as well.

WX, he wasn't saying that Houston was definitely getting hit by a cat 5 hurricane. It's possible based on the EURO, which did have Isabel right. But, I do agree with OHD, wait another day before jumping on it.

DT, again. Your forecasts are SUPERB.

He's more often than not right.

These are very legitimate questions!

I am not questioning his forecasting ability. I would like to know how do you get a Cat-4/Cat-5 from looking at the EC sfc depiction? Does the EC run a separate model for hurricanes?

And what would you have NHC do?

I am very interested in his opinion. This is why I posted a response to his post.

M

wx, yeah. Sorry about that. I took the tone of your post wrong.

It's all good now and again I'm sorry.

[rainstorm]

if the models shifted west why didnt the nhc? poor cantore is headed to ft myers

[jabber]

Looks like it might be..... Another sleepless night. Wish the Gulfstream was in now so we could get that data ingested in the models sooner. I remember when Irene was 'supposed' to go inland around Tampa... forgot about it until around 5:00pm on Friday when I noticed it was getting really nasty outside. We got Hurricane force winds. lost power for two days and almost flooded out in Boynton Beach that night. That was the last time I took my eye off a storm.

[KBBOCA]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed. I haven't noticed it anywhere so thought I'd start a new topic.

Was just looking at the historical map of other August storms near Charley's vicinity.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

All but one, of course head West into Texas or Mexico. It demonstrates just what an anomaly this trough is this time of year! By rights Charley would have had "TEXAS" written all over him but now we're looking at Tampa... Just goes to show, now matter how strong a historical precedent may be, there are always bound to be exceptions!

[Janie34]

dont know about that far west, but mobile isnt out of the woods

I really don't need Charley knocking on the door towards the weekend. That being said, for now (and thats a caveat) I'll go with the Big Bend to West-central Florida coastline. It seems to me the trough will determine the outcome of this situation. If Charley doesn't get a ride from that trough, we have a whole new ballgame.

Edited fer spellin'

[NorthGaWeather]

Still a 285 motion

[chadtm80]

Storm Flattening on the West side and Clouds aiming North.. Thats a sign of a Northerly turn.. no?

[eye of the storm]

Correct me if im wrong, but didn't the people of Galveston plus the Weather Bureau assume that the storm of 1900 would recurve into florida or out to sea. That one went right into Texas.

[washington]

You are right but they had bad data and plus it was a stron ridge that pushed the storm that way.

[bahamaswx]

Possibly. He'll parallel Cuba for some time yet though.

[eye of the storm]

Thanks for the insight.

[NorthGaWeather]

Don't see this NW turn. The storm is expanding there has been a large convection explosion it appears on VIS and just appears its moving more North. VIS clearly shows it moving just North of West.

[KBBOCA]

I probably should have added a caveat to my earlier post... "So far the current track seems different..." Obviously with the slightly westward shift and Charley's slowing down, it seems there is just a bit more doubt tonight that Charley will make the turn towards SW Florida. I for one wouldn't mind FL getting a pass... but I surely don't wish a nasty Cat 3 or 4 storm headed towards TX or Mexico either. It sure LOOKS like someone is gonna get hit by Charley. Might be better if it's sooner before Charley can get too strong.

Certainly he's got lots of people's attention!

[bahamaswx]

"Just" north of west? I'd put it at 290, which is WNW.

[Anonymous]

Charley looks to be really expanding now on the visible satellite. How big and powerful will he get? These latest pics should start making people in Florida very nervous. I hope everyone is prepared for a possible Major hurricane!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

By itself this doesnt mean much BUT given the

1) the slowness of charley to 15 MPH
2) the BAM D is a HUGE change and now has Charley MISSING the trough and going into TX

3) the clino...

it might be something

Forgive me if this has already been discussed. I haven't noticed it anywhere so thought I'd start a new topic.

Was just looking at the historical map of other August storms near Charley's vicinity.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

All but one, of course head West into Texas or Mexico. It demonstrates just what an anomaly this trough is this time of year! By rights Charley would have had "TEXAS" written all over him but now we're looking at Tampa... Just goes to show, now matter how strong a historical precedent may be, there are always bound to be exceptions!