Bonnie Advisories

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112220
97779 22204 40171 69100 56300 07022 57//1 /4588
RMK AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 02

Only starting now to get closer to Charley.

[Winnipesaukee]

Someone should translate that nice block of gibberish.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112250
97779 22504 40166 71600 56200 09016 57651 /4586
RMK AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 03

16.6n-71.6w that position is south of Haiti so not there yet.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112249
97779 22494 40299 89300 15500 99005 18132 /2510 49905
RMK AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 01

29.9n-89.3w just off the coast of Grand Isle so still a bit far from Bonnie.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112317
97779 23174 41286 90400 15000 99005 18141 /2510 49905
RMK AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 02


Ob #2 is at 28.6n-90.4w.

[Hyperstorm]

They are really closing in on Charley now. We should now within the hour what is being suspected...strengthening. I would expect the central pressure to be somewhere below 990mbs.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112320
97779 23204 40165 74200 56300 14020 56672 /4588
RMK AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 04


Now very close to Charley at 16.5n-74.2w.

[LilNoles2004]

Keep these updates coming, we appreciate them!



- Chris

[Hyperstorm]

I'm really concerned with this system. I hate to say this, but the outflow pattern is becoming CLASSIC. There is no longer ANY restriction of outflow on the SW side and convection should increase significantly during the night. I would be surprised if we DON'T have a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday...

[ChaserUK]

mmmm, my thoughts are turning to chasing this thing if he does enter the GOM. Looks like I might have taken the rigt week off work, i.e next week!

[wx247]

Will be anxiously awaiting the findings of recon.

[soonertwister]

I'm looking at Bonnie, and I'm thinking...

Right ONE, right TWO, Hutt-Hutt-HUTT!

[rainstorm]

center becoming exposed on charley? southerly shear?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 15a


Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on August 11, 2004



...Bonnie moving northeastward across the north central Gulf of
Mexico...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the Florida
Panhandle and northwest Florida from Destin eastward to the mouth
of the Suwannee river.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the western Florida Panhandle from west of Destin westward to the
Alabama/Florida border.

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 27.1 north...longitude 88.7 west or about
140 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. This is also
about 295 miles southwest of Apalachicola Florida.

Bonnie is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph. This general
motion...with a gradual increase in forward speed...is forecast to
continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Bonnie is
expected to make landfall along the central Panhandle of Florida
Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts.
Strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and Bonnie could
become a hurricane later tonight or Thursday morning. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating
Bonnie.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with
Bonnie.

Isolated tornadoes are also possible by Thursday morning over the
Florida Panhandle.

Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...27.1 N... 88.7 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112352
97779 23524 40165 76900 15400 14033 18163 /2504
RMK AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 06

16.5n-76.9w South of Kingston,Jamaica the plane so it is a matter of time for a vortex message.

[Brent]

center becoming exposed on charley? southerly shear?

You wish.

[seaswing]

Someone should translate that nice block of gibberish.

LOL! I'm with ya on this one! I am totally a layman when it comes to this, although I am learning more and more each time I come here. But I will never be a meterologist...... I know terms like wobble, and excelerate and pressure and stall....

[Hyperstorm]

center becoming exposed on charley? southerly shear?

Actually, what may look like southerly shear is NOT.

An amateur eye (*hint, hint*) will see this as shear. What happens is that the center of Charley has been devoid of really deep convection since early this afternoon thus creating the optical illusion.

There has been some really deep convection on the East side of the system that is just heading toward Jamaica as we speak. I would expect rainfall amounts to be over 10" in some areas.

Once the system clears Jamaica, there should be enough inflow from the south making it toward the center creating a significant burst of convection over it...and that can happen as early as tonight...

[Steve Cosby]

Someone should translate that nice block of gibberish.

Mike Watkins used to have an excellent Excel spreadsheet on his site. I still have it but I haven't tried it this year. Do you still have it Mike?

For that matter, the PCBeach guy used to generate a real nice recon map. Whatever happened to that one?

[bahamaswx]

Indeed. Charley should strengthen significantly as soon as he clears Jamaica. Quite worrisome.