Local Met......

[Windtalker]

NBC Channel 6 Miami doing hourly reports states SE Florida is not out of the woods yet. Claims that there is a chance that the ridge is breaking down earlier than expected by the look of Charley now and by the more NW Jog it is now taking. Where he got this info who knows but he states that if Charley slows down any more than he is now, to expect a more northerly turn by morning and coming up through the upper keys, Miami/Dade County & Broward County on the east coast....I'm no weatherman but people here are beginning to believe what Local Mets are saying....Crying wolf again will make many next time to ignore warnings in the future.

[Rainband]

You can have him

[pavelbure224]

that is why no one pays attention to Rolland Steadham

[Tommedic]

Looking at sat pics, I can see where he is getting this. Latest seem to show a northward push.

[Wnghs2007]

Charley is moving at about 285/11 right now. And is on the South side of the deep convection. Due to some slight shear from the ULL to its west. But that shoudl weaken and then it could rapidly intensify. Also of note. The Positions.

At 5 Pm: 17.0 N and 77.5 W
At 8 Pm: 17.2 N and 78.2 W
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Or thats .2 N movement to .7 W movement and you get 285 movement.

[jlauderdal]

NBC Channel 6 Miami doing hourly reports states SE Florida is not out of the woods yet. Claims that there is a chance that the ridge is breaking down earlier than expected by the look of Charley now and by the more NW Jog it is now taking. Where he got this info who knows but he states that if Charley slows down any more than he is now, to expect a more northerly turn by morning and coming up through the upper keys, Miami/Dade County & Broward County on the east coast....I'm no weatherman but people here are beginning to believe what Local Mets are saying....Crying wolf again will make many next time to ignore warnings in the future.

Im surprised at Roland..he is usually conservative. Oh well, you have to figure each time this thing jogs one or another you are going to get a reaction..look at storm2k for heavans sake, meanwhile the strom is behaving as NHC has predicted.

[Wnghs2007]

Also The Mean Speed has slowed considerbly. And it is now possible with the farthest south position of the Trough Being 30 N that it may miss the Trough somewhat and just go on a more NNW to N course than the sharp NE turn expected by NHC.

Only 1 model shows SW FL Landfall, 3 show Panhandle Landfall, 1 shows Alabama landfall and 2 show the Central Gulf. and here it is. http://www5.wright-weather.com/data/wxp ... t_atcf.gif

[stormie_skies]

Wow, those models really are starting to swing to the west..... I would be surprised if NHC doesnt move a bit west in response....

[HeatherAKC]

Yes, I was intrigued by what Roland stated. He says that if Charley slows down, that we here in Sofla could be under the gun again. Others on this site have said if he slows down, he could miss the trough and pose a greater threat from TX to Tampa. I'm corn-fused, that's for sure!

[Wnghs2007]

Wow, those models really are starting to swing to the west..... I would be surprised if NHC doesnt move a bit west in response....

Ummmmmmmmmmmm. as dt would say. What have you been smoking.

Those models clearly show a further westward course. THE NHC is following 1 just 1 model now. All the rest show the Panhandle or further west.

The NHC likes the GFDL to much. Which is already .4 degrees north in its model track at 6 hours than Charleys center is now

06 hours Charley center 17.6 N 78.2 west at 00z according to GFDL

When at 00Z which was just 8 Pm basically Charley was at 17.2 N 78.2 W so it is already further south than the GFDL predicted. Also the trought is only supposed to reach to 30 N. And [Edit] Charley is not moving north that quickly at all. On latest trends .2 degrees north every 3 hours.

So I disagree with you and the NHC. But Who knows.

[MGC]

If Charlie misses the trough than he will be a western to central GOM threat.....MGC

[jlauderdal]

Yes, I was intrigued by what Roland stated. He says that if Charley slows down, that we here in Sofla could be under the gun again. Others on this site have said if he slows down, he could miss the trough and pose a greater threat from TX to Tampa. I'm corn-fused, that's for sure!

Well I just watched Rolands 9 pm update and he had max on. Max said if it slows down it hs a much better chance of impacting sofla. However he said its on course and never mentioned anything about a Westerly course.

[windwatcher]

I just saw the NBC6 update with Max mayfield and Roland Stemham as well. They seem VERY confident that Charley is going to take the track as predicted.

According to the latest vapor loop, IMO, it appears that Charley is having trouble coming around the southwestern side of the high to its E and NE. It looks as though the high trying to build a little SW just around the latitude of the northern eye keeping Charley from making that "TURN" that everyone is so confident in. However, I do notice the kink in the high off the Florida east coast which does favor that turn. I guess time will tell soon.

[stormchazer]

Can you say....RATINGS?

[Stormsfury]

Can you say....RATINGS?

BINGO ... and we have crowned a winner ...

[rtd2]

amen I've said it on other forums even the WX men want ratings...I'm sick of hearing "tune in @ 10pm for the latest! thank GOD for the net!

[WeatherNole]

Of course we want ratings. That's our job. But, I only worry about my exact choice of words, and I certainly would never (publicly) judge what someone else says.

That being said - any on-air met who is purposely sensationalistic or misleading is, in my opinion, irresponsible, unprofessional, and borderline unethical. Being wrong is one thing. Misleading someone is something else entirely.

Of course, that doesn't mean that it still won't happen from time to time.

Mike

disclaimer - Yes, I am a tv met.

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