why?

[hurricanedude]

the NHC has charley weakening rapidly over floridas peninsula.....I thought sinse FL was generally flat that storms weakened slowly. so do you think this thing could hold cane strenghth a bit longer than forecasted?

[SouthernWx]

Dude, I believe the NHC intensity forecast is much too conservative along the entire forecast track. Avila himself said the GFDL proggs a 120-125 mph hurricane before landfall south of Havana. Why? Because the hurricane will encounter increasingly warmer sst's as it approaches Cuba....as warm as 88°...

The 18z GFDL also proggs a 130-135 mph hurricane at landfall in Florida....and no wonder. The entire forecast track from near Havana to just west of Key West to the FL west coast is over sst's of 86-89° (30-31.5°C). In all honesty, the potential scares the hell out of me Dude.

If I lived along the coast between Clearwater and Everglades City (or in the lower Keys), I'd be planning for a 135 mph hurricane....and hope to God Charley only reached 110.

One thing that scares me? We're in uncharted waters with hurricane Charley. Never before has a significant hurricane in mid-August recurved into Florida from the SSW....never, not since 1846. This is an October-type trough and an October-type forecast track....except it will occur over mid-August sst's.

Another concern....if this hurricane indeed explodes to 130 mph or more, there will be MAJOR damage inland. On the NHC forecast track, with the progged acceleration, I wouldn't be surprised to see 100-120 mph gusts in Orlando and Daytona Beach. A fast moving intense hurricane can carry 100+ mph winds inland a long way; ESPECIALLY over flat land such as the Florida peninsula. Opal was a weakening 115-120 mph hurricane at landfall near Pensacola in 1995, and gusts reached 90 mph in Montgomery and Auburn, Alabama....65-70 mph in this area, and Dude, I'm 250 miles inland.

A little hurricane history....the 1926 Great Miami hurricane was about 140 mph or so at landfall. When it passed over Fort Myers into the GOM, it was still estimated to be a 125 mph cat-3. In 1960, hurricane Donna brought 90-100 mph gusts to the west and northern suburbs of Orlando after being overland all day long (15 hours). Andrew was 160 or so as it hit Homestead....and still 130 mph as it exited into the GOM.

I've always had a horror of a rapidly deepening hurricane accelerating into the Tampa Bay area when everyone was expecting a cat-1 or 2, and many didn't have time to evac those barrier islands. It's the worst disaster scenario possible...an "Opal-type" bomb....exploding from cat-1 to cat-4 in 12 hours as it accelerates toward western Florida. Folks go to bed expecting 100 mph sustained winds, and awaken to find a 140+ mph monster approaching with no time to get out. I hope and pray to God this nightmare isn't about to really happen

Perry

[Brent]

OMG... I don't think anyone here WANTS to know what a Cat 3 or 4 would do to SW Florida. The estimates and projections have been devastating.

Absolute worst case scenario is the eye going just NW of Tampa and landfalling. Surge will be MASSIVE in the Bay.

[chris_fit]

Excellent post and a good reminder that we shouldn't rule anything out.

I work at Staples in Sarasota and asked people what they were doing to prepare and the attitude of most was --- "Bah, only category 1 or 2, that's nothing!!!"

Eeaakkk

~Chris

[The Dark Knight]

Yikes...........

[SouthernWx]

Excellent post and a good reminder that we shouldn't rule anything out.

I work at Staples in Sarasota and asked people what they were doing to prepare and the attitude of most was --- "Bah, only category 1 or 2, that's nothing!!!"

Eeaakkk

~Chris

That's what I was afraid of Chris....no one in Sarasota or St Pete, and few in Fort Myers can remember the last time a powerful hurricane struck their area because it's been decades....and many there don't believe it can happen, because it hasn't.

The last major hurricane in Tampa Bay occurred in 1921...the last "really intense" (130+ mph) hurricane there was in 1848. In Sarasota, it's been 60 years since the last major hurricane there....and 44 years since Donna devastated the SW Coast.

I haven't been to Tampa Bay since the mid 80's, but even then I was stunned at all the high-rise condo's and expensive homes located on sandspits and barrier islands less than 10' above sea level. I remember remarking to my family that one day that would all get wiped out....because the storm surge in a cat-4 would be 20-25' high in that area....but what really frightened me then was thinking about all the thousands of thousands who wouldn't likely take the approaching major hurricane serious, because they "just didn't happen" in St Pete Beach or Siesta Key or Longboat Key....the thousands who wouldn't leave until it was too late to leave, become trapped, and drown when the 20' storm surge hit.

[chris_fit]

Exactly...
No one is preparing, at least it seems that way.

I'm 2 min driving distance (1 mile) from Siesta Key

I hope i'll be Ok here

~Chris

[Skywatch_NC]

I have a cousin and she her husband and their baby daughter live in Sarasota. And a cousin who lives in Tampa.

Eric

[Guest]

JMHO but as of right now I think the threat to SW Florida is reduced quite a bit....

[chris_fit]

JMHO but as of right now I think the threat to SW Florida is reduced quite a bit....

Does this make it better or worse for the Tampa Bay Region?

[weatherlover427]

Unfortunately this only reiterates my idea that the complacency of people these days is ... well ... sad really.