Uh-oh!!

[scogor]

The 5 am track forecast is the absolute worst case scenario for Tampa bay residents and the 5 am discussion from the NHC strongly hints at higher winds than are predicted. Question for the learned members of storm2k: Do we ride this out here or join our daughter who leaves for Gainesville today? We already have hotel reservations up there for Friday night. And how much additional track shifting should we expect from Charley?

[Derek Ortt]

If you're ordered to leave, you should leave and not ask any questions

[caribepr]

Seems to me if you already have hotel reservations and your house is secured, why not go? Save your daughter from worrying and beat a possible rush up the road...

[kevin]

If you have the reservations, get out while the going is nice. Come tomorrow you might not want to be on the roads.

[stormchazer]

I have experience here when I had to evacuate during Floyd's approach to Charleston, SC. It took me 5.5 hours to go 90 miles. Be prepared so if the call comes to evac, that you are ready to leave promptly.

Take care.

[medic8ed]

I'm your neighbor -- just north of you in Bradenton -- and I'm not too happy
about the current forecast track either. I suppose that if you are leaving
today (Thursday) you might be in good shape. BUT -- if you are outside a
likely evacuation zone and/or you are leaving later I would recommend
riding it out in Sarasota, simply because the roads are going to be full of
folks whoare going to be REQUIRED to evacuate, and we should really give
them priority. Evacuation from this area is going to be a nightmare --
think of all the people on the islands trying to get inland to the interstate
all at once!! In my opinion, if you aren't required to evacuate, leave the
roads and resources for those who are.

Plus, while the current storm track shows us in Sarasota/Bradenton set for
a bad time, any slight shift -- as little as 30 miles east or west -- could
mean we just get a rainy day. At the very least, I would wait until the
11AM projection before deciding. If you do go today, make sure you
have done all the preparation of your property needed to protect your
neighbors -- get all your lawn gnomes, archery ranges, and wading pools
in your yard inside so they don't fly through the windows next door.

I'm just 3 or 4 miles from the gulf but outside any evacuation zones, so
I'll be sticking it out here with the kids and the dogs. I'm pretty nervous,
particularly now that Charley might be closer to Cat 3, but I'm still
betting that it shifts and we get some weather, but nothing horrible. I'm
betting on an eastern shift, landfall around Naples or so...

[Derek Ortt]

Not sure what forecast you're using for Naples landfall. Indications are that if there is any shift, it will be for a landfall farther up the coast

[mf_dolphin]

Scogor is in Sarasota, just south of the mouth of Tampa Bay.

[scogor]

Issue was primarily not separating our family. We will feel better riding this out together in Gainesville rather than worrying about her being up there on her own and her worrying about us in Sarasota. Hope this is all academic and "overkill" but think it makes sense at this point to take this precaution.

[drudd1]

Sounds like a good decision, besides, it'll give you some more quality family time.

[Aquawind]

Head for the Hills Scogor..You have made the plans..Things are looking worse for you up north with more time over water..I would wrap things up there and Get on with your plans for Gainsville today..imho..Be Safe..

[Lowpressure]

I have experience here when I had to evacuate during Floyd's approach to Charleston, SC. It took me 5.5 hours to go 90 miles. Be prepared so if the call comes to evac, that you are ready to leave promptly.

Take care.

I agree, I lived in Jacksonville for Floyd, people did not move at all trying to evacuate. Now, I believe Florida has passed an emergency plan where they make all interstate lanes go in one direction. With Floyd they just blocked the ramps but only used 2 lanes on I-10.

[Brent]

LEAVE NOW! Don't wait. If you wait, the traffic backup will be a nightmare. If the track shifts anymore, it'll be to the left, putting Sarasota in the Eastern side of a potentially extremely dangerous hurricane. That is the worst side.

[Windsong]

Knowing the population and geographic concerns in the Tampa Bay area, I have to wonder why they are not evacuating before this. I mean, realistically, how many people can safely evacuate now that the first effects of the storm are about 24 hours away?

Just wondering....

[paulvogel]

unless your in a trailor, or house with a tacked on roof.
Reasoning...the shift in the plans means I believe the hurricane will parallal the coast 50 miles off the coast
you will have an oblique surge, not a direct surge
the storngest winds will be southerly, Sarasota will be safer than bradenton.
Gven that, the worst effect of this hurricane will be the power failure for many hrs, maybe days.

[medic8ed]

Not only are they not evacuating the Tampa Bay area, all schools and other
functions are on regular schedules. As has been said in other topics, this
is linked to local politics -- an evacuation at any time is going to be a
disaster, and someone in local government will be guaranteed to lose his/her
job. They're not going to make any moves until the very, very, very last
minute.

It seems on the TV news and otherwise they are really trying to downplay
this storm -- all i'm hearing is "Sure, the projected path is bad now, but it
doesn't matter, since the prohections will change. Don't worry." Nothing
regarding the fact that we are bound to get *some* weather whatever
Charley does.

I agree that the only big problem is going to be extended power outages.
That's going to,well, suck.

[weatherlover427]

Not only are they not evacuating the Tampa Bay area, all schools and other
functions are on regular schedules. As has been said in other topics, this
is linked to local politics -- an evacuation at any time is going to be a
disaster, and someone in local government will be guaranteed to lose his/her
job. They're not going to make any moves until the very, very, very last
minute.

It seems on the TV news and otherwise they are really trying to downplay
this storm -- all i'm hearing is "Sure, the projected path is bad now, but it
doesn't matter, since the prohections will change. Don't worry." Nothing
regarding the fact that we are bound to get *some* weather whatever
Charley does.

I agree that the only big problem is going to be extended power outages.
That's going to,well, suck.

What the "heck" are they smoking over there? The loss of life and property destruction factor is going to be ENORMOUS if something is not done RIGHT NOW about this...

[Windsong]

thanks for the responses. I was wondering because I saw elsewhere on the board that this track is the worst case scenerio for Tampa Bay. Perhaps it was speculation on someone's part rather than fact.

To everyone in the panhandle and the west coast, my prayers for your safety....
Denise

[Brent]

Ya'll have to be kidding about Tampa Bay.

[medic8ed]

Manatee County (south face of Tampa Bay -- Bradenton) just announced
2 shelters, voluntary evacuations of the barrier islands and low areas. Local
emergency office says they will start mandatory announcements at 11am
advisory. No announcement on schools.

I was just out - traffic on the main roads no different than usual. The only
thing I couldn't find in the store was D batteries. Wine still available,
thankfully.

Again, seems very low-key around here, less anxious than storms I've seen
here in the past. Weird, but I've got to be out later this afternoon, and I'm
not looking forward to what the roads are going to be like.

Lots of great cloud formations from Bonnie, though.