Charley Advisories

[Nimbus]

I hate seeing the pressure continue to drop like that. The ridging over western cuba is building in stronger and the system is slowing. I sure don't envy the forecasters trying to predict landfall.

[chris_fit]

Will Occur on Friday the 13th

... Not superstitious just a thought

~Chris

[cycloneye]

Strike Probability Map | Wind Map | Coordinates | Computer Models
Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 12a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004



...Charley moving northwestward between the Cayman Islands...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Dry
Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest Florida
coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida west coast from
north of Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. The warning for Jamaica will likely be discontinued later
this morning.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning this morning.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 19.2 north... longitude 80.5 west or about 40 miles
...65 km... east of Grand Cayman.

Charley is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr.
A turn to the north-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb...29.12 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are expected in the Cayman Islands later this morning.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in the Florida
Keys. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet are possible along the
southwest Florida coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...19.2 N... 80.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 986 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[Brent]

Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 12a

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 12, 2004

...Charley moving northwestward between the Cayman Islands...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Dry
Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest Florida
coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida west coast from
north of Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. The warning for Jamaica will likely be discontinued later
this morning.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning this morning.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 19.2 north... longitude 80.5 west or about 40 miles
...65 km... east of Grand Cayman.

Charley is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr.
A turn to the north-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb...29.12 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are expected in the Cayman Islands later this morning.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in the Florida
Keys. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet are possible along the
southwest Florida coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...19.2 N... 80.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 986 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am EDT.

[The Dark Knight]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_03.gif
The BAM's have Charley following the coast after the Florida landfall then, up to Cape Hatteras. Hmmm...... Interesting...

[NJCane]

Looks like no matter what we are in for some nasty weather. Local met here was saying this morning that gusts to 65mph are possible on the NJ coast due to the very fast forward motion of the storm. Local NWS forecast for Saturday night is for Tropical storm conditions...

[The Dark Knight]

What???..... You can share some tropical storm force winds with the Cape.... Right?????....

[Thunder44]

6z GFS has shifted it's track of Charley, east from it's 0z run. It takes across the Central Florida Pennisula and back out into the Atlantic until it get to South Carolina.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Guest]

well I dont think talking about it was sin... it is a weather board...

I never chnaged my forecast track from Tampa Cedar Key landfall and with charley now moving close to 300 and above 18.5N it seems a fair bet he will be reach a high enough Lat to be close neough so the trough can catch him...

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmm....Interesting.... If that actually does happen, I bet that we will get a lot more rain and maybe even some watches/warnings here on the Cape.....????

[washington]

The issue that i have is that GFDL has doen well with bonnie and if you run the GFDL for charley it takes it futher north into ceder key area.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

[Thunder44]

But the winds have decreased

URNT12 KNHC 121154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1154Z
B. 19 DEG 14 MIN N
80 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2957 M
D. 60 KT
E. 100 DEG 006 NM
F. 200 DEG 83 KT
G. 113 DEG 009 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 10 C/ 3072 M
J. 19 C/ 3068 M
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 83 KT E QUAD 1151Z.

[Steve H.]

Explain why that's an Issue? Really, I don't understand the post.

[Guest]

Folks th e 00z ecmwf -- in case you did NOT know the european model is now run TWICE day -- has killed the TX charley idea.

WHY? Recall that the wed afternoon euro did NOT have the trough reaching as far south as new oreleans whereas the other models showed the trough reaching as far south as 27N or 28N.

Since the trough on the wed afternoon euro has not nearly as deep the model said it would miss Charley.

The new 00z euro ahs reversed that -- it now has the trough digging into the central Gulf just like Most of the other global medium and now short range models. Therefore it does capture it and re-curve charley into west central FL....

When the Model outlier with the "wierd solution" ends up with no other support and then flips back to the solutions of the other models -- it means that the wierd solution was Just that -- an OUTLIER.

I still see the threat / risk of Charley reachinf Cat 4 status as high as 45% as some point over the next 48 hrs...

AS I said on the radio show last night... I never chnaged my forecast track from Tampa Cedar Key landfall and with charley now moving close to 300 and above 18.5N it seems a fair bet he will be reach a high enough Lat to be close neough so the trough can catch him...

[Thunder44]

On second look I think that's a map from yesterday. Also the GFDL has shifted back east on 6z run.

[washington]

Its a issue because you have to know where the weakness in the ridge will be bonnie so that's where you need to look. Its also hard to turn major hurricane that quickly so i feel that it will futher north. Some of the NWS people that i work with feel the same way.

[Steve H.]

DT, the 6z GFS didn't move much from the 0z, maybe a hair east even. So you still see this as a threat to central Florida if I'm reading you right here? Earlier, you seemed to allude to the track shifting much further west. RSVP....

[cycloneye]

[quote]12/1145 UTC 19.1N 80.4W T4.5/4.5 CHARLEY -- Atlantic Ocean


Below is the dvorak intensity chart and there you can see how is the wind proflie as the T numbers go up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[Guest]

Good try. Thankfully if it went west it could get a whole lot worse than a cat 2. What do you think? West Coast of Fl. Looks like Charlie is winding up alittle moving WnW./

[Derecho]

Motion between the first VORTEX of this flight and the last VORTEX of the last flight is 309 degrees.

I got a speed of 17 kts, seems a little high, doublechecked it a few times though.

But it's clearly turned more or less NW (only 6 degrees off from due NW) and it hasn't slowed to a crawl or anything.