Charley Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm.... 984MB not that bad.....

[Deenac813]

But it's clearly turned more or less NW (only 6 degrees off from due NW) and it hasn't slowed to a crawl or anything.

What happens if Charley slows down? How does that effect the current projected path?

[Guest]

BATMAN

can you please stop with the idiotic mongering for a cape cod hit...? You sound like that Pauk fool a few years back... the 6z GFDL which has shown a significant right bias over the last 10 runs is NOT turning back east..

[Anonymous]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks pretty bad for the island, I wish them the best.

[The Dark Knight]

Not that bad.....

[Derecho]

I was referring to the various strange claims last night that Charley had stopped or slowed down drastically, which had no basis in fact.

[Steve H.]

Luis, does it mean that it is predicted to be 4.5 or that it is 4.5? I Can't remember that.

[stormernie]

Charley looks a little disorganized this morning. The first high resolution visible shots show two main cluster of thunderstorms, also it seems that the ULL to the west is now causing some southerly shear.

As the day progresses we will see

[Dan]

BATMAN
the 6z GFDL which has shown a significant right bias over the last 10 runs is NOT turning back east..

6 and 18z model runs reguardless of which model you look at tend to be odd anyways.

[Guest]

Yes I do

the 6z GFDL like all of the last 10 GFDL has a NORTH bias.... the 6 hr forecast positions from the GFDL have been too North when compared to the actual track.

The shift is inconsequential IMO. again the point is NO model takes charley directly into SW FL.... 24 hrs ago nearly all of them did.

DT, the 6z GFS didn't move much from the 0z, maybe a hair east even. So you still see this as a threat to central Florida if I'm reading you right here? Earlier, you seemed to allude to the track shifting much further west. RSVP....

[Matthew5]

http://home.hiwaay.net/~brogers/Cayman_weather.html

This was a few hours ago!

[Guest]

It slowed down when I could only get sat. images. Today the computer is streaming so I expect it to pick up speed. Okay.

[cycloneye]

Luis, does it mean that it is predicted to be 4.5 or that it is 4.5? I Can't remember that.

This is the sat estimate of the wind profile of Charley and look at the intensity chart above at link.

[chris_fit]

Yikes... equipment went offline

[BayouVenteux]

Looks pretty bad for the island, I wish them the best.

The true locals down there are a hardy lot, they'll weather it fine. As for the hoardes of expats and bank employees relatively new to the islands, it will, forgive the pun, be an eye-opening experience.

[Anonymous]

Charley is making a direct hit on Grand Cayman attm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Again i wish them the best.

[Anonymous]

There will probably be a fair amount of damage to the island after its all set and done, seeing as they got a direct hit. There is no way I would live or work on Cayman Island during hurricane season

[stormernie]

It seems that Charley has made a left turn, if you look at the infared pictures (loop) you can clearly see this turn. Is this a wobble or an actual change.

If its a change then we may see major changes to the forecast track at 11 AM

Comments Welcome

[BayouVenteux]

It appears to be up and running. The 7:40 am upload from East End station reads 50mph winds. Charley's center looks to be skirting a shade NE of Grand Cayman. IMO, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac are probably getting the worst of the weather at this time.

ADDENDUM...my bad. I just noticed that the current wind speed was unlisted. My hope of a lighter load to bear for the folks in Georgetown may dashed. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Checking alternate sites for any updated obs.

[Anonymous]

Its heading NW, no left turn.