Charley Advisories

[ColdFront77]

24hr - 13 / 8:00 am - 24.6N 83.1W to 36hr = 13 / 8:00 pm - 28.0N 82.8W is 305 miles / 12 hours = 25.42 miles per hour

[Josephine96]

I think Tampa has not seen a hurricane since the 30's.. or did Elena make it on shore..?

[Trader Ron]

Cat 5 29%? I'll take that bet. I will eat CROW three times a day if Charley becomes a CAT 5..

[DoctorHurricane2003]

No, Elena did not make it on shore, plus she was affecting the Big Bend area more or less.

The closest major hurricane to come near the Tampa area in the past 50 years was Hurricane Donna...1960.

[jvance75]

Pinellas Emergency Management has said this is a historic evacuation for the area with 400,000 residents effected...starts at 6pm

[Josephine96]

Oh Ok.. so 1960

[medic8ed]

Starting 6pm Thursday night -- mandatory evacuation of three zones
in Pinellas County (western face of Tampa Bay, St. Pete/Clearwater/
Clearwater Beach, etc.):

350,000 people in evacuation! If you look at Pinellas on a map, you
can see the limited evacuation routes (3 bridges, basically). Bad, very
bad.

Local (Fox13) Met is now calling this a catastrophic event.

[Dmetal81]

Of interesting note is the research done on the effect of an area seeing a lack of hurricanes and then receiving one. Not having had a hurricane for a long time (regardless of strength) tends to maximize damage some because of the lack of awareness, more trees/weaker trees have not been naturally weeded out, older buildings may not be up to code and have not been "tested" by high winds. So if its been since the 30's since Tampa has seen direct impact by a major hurricane, the damage could be quite severe.

[weatherSnoop]

Elena did manage to put causways under water. Small storm that never hit!

[The Dark Knight]

Geez 20 ft. Is higher than 2 stories.......

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Once again I feel I should post my percentage categories:

0-19% Not Likely
20-39% Possible
40-59% Moderately Possible/Likely
60-79% Very Likely
80-100% Exceptionally Likely

[weatherSnoop]

When is Hillsborough County Gvmnt going to speak up?

[Josephine96]

If Charley hits Cat 5.. then I'll say my prayers and get ready to go to heaven lol jk

On a more serious note.. It's kinda sick to here people in Tampa aren't taking the possibility of a Cat 3 storm seriously..

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[Josephine96]

I'm trying very hard not to think of the possibilities that could happen to Tampa.. but this is looking uglier by the day..

[Dmetal81]

If I remember correctly, Tampa bay is one of those areas that given the right conditions and direction of approach, storm surge is maxmized in a crazy way due to the size and shape of the bay.

[Dmetal81]

If I remember correctly, Tampa bay is one of those areas that given the right conditions and direction of approach, storm surge is maxmized in a crazy way due to the size and shape of the bay.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

Tampa will have a real close call. My calculations based on the current position, models, and some analogs put the center of Charley as follows:

50-100 miles west of Tampa: Moderate Risk
50 miles west of Tampa or closer: High Risk
Within 50 miles east of Tampa: Moderate Risk

More importantly, TPC puts the storm within 15-25 miles west of Tampa:

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

[Skywatch_NC]

Updated: 6:21 am EDT on August 12, 2004

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until noon Friday...

Today:

Rain developing... with isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight:

Periods of rain in the evening with scattered thunderstorms. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain may be heavy at times in the evening. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday:

Cloudy. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy with highs in the upper 80s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Night:

Periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows around 70. South winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming southeast early in the morning. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday:

Periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. Very windy. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming southeast 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday Night:

Cloudy. A chance of rain with isolated thunderstorms in the evening...then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Very windy with lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.


Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 11:40 am EDT on August 12, 2004


... There is a threat for severe weather this afternoon...
... There is a threat of isolated tornadoes with the remnants of
Bonnie tonight...

A moderately unstable air mass over North Carolina this afternoon
will bring a risk for severe thunderstorms to central North
Carolina. The main threat is expected to be gusty downburst winds.
Although all of central North Carolina is at risk... the primary
threat area this afternoon will be The Triad area and areas south of
high 64.

As the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie move to the north-northeast
over the western Piedmont of North Carolina early tonight...
increasing low level winds... and a rapid change in wind direction
with height through the atmosphere... will create conditions
favorable for isolated tornadoes. The risk will be mainly this
evening through the overnight hours tonight... and will be primarily
along and east of Bonnie's track.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details or updates.


Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Statement as of 5:10 am EDT on August 12, 2004


A Flash Flood Watch continues in effect for the following counties:
Scotland... Hoke... Anson... Cumberland... Sampson... Stanly...
Montgomery... Moore... Harnett... Wayne... Lee... Johnston... Wilson...
Chatham... Randolph... Davidson... Wake... Edgecombe... Nash...
Durham... Orange... Alamance... Guilford... Forsyth... Franklin...
Halifax... Vance... Person... Granville... Warren... and Richmond. The
watch is in effect from noon today until noon Friday.

Tropical Storm Bonnie is expected to make landfall along the
Panhandle of Florida early this afternoon. The remnants of Bonnie
are then expected to track north-northeast tonight through Friday
morning... moving across the Piedmont of North Carolina. As the
remnants of Bonnie approach... rainfall will begin to overspread the
area this morning through this afternoon.

The rainfall will increase in both coverage and intensity late this
afternoon through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be
expected... with locally higher amounts possible. Flooding of
low-lying and poor drainage areas... urban areas... Highway
underpasses... and creeks and streams could occur between midday
Thursday and midday Friday.

After a lull in rainfall during the day on Friday... remnants of
Hurricane Charley are expected to move over central North Carolina
Friday evening through Saturday... bringing additional heavy and
widespread rain to the area. Additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible with Charley. This will bring another flooding threat...
and the Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended. People across
central North Carolina are urged to frequently check the latest
forecasts and conditions.

A Flash Flood Watch means that flooding is possible within the watch
area. People in the watch area are advised to check preparedness
requirements... keep informed... and be ready for quick action if
flash flooding threatens or if a warning is issued.

Remember to never drive your vehicle into areas where the water
covers the Road. The water depth may be too great to allow your car
to cross safely. As little as a foot of water can float most
vehicles.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for up to the
minute weather information.

[weatherSnoop]

28.0 n 82.8 w is .3 degrees west of my house