Charley Advisories

[stormernie]

It is clear that we now have a rapid intensification phase. It is entering a warm water eddy that extends all the way to the Cuban coast. Pressure is dropping another 3 mb's since the last advisory. Won't be surprise to see a CAT 3 by 5 PM.

Also, the northern movement (wobble) continues, this is not good if it continues....

[Dmetal81]

This is a dangerous assumption to be posting. Sarasota is just south of the bay area and well within the scope of Charley...

Which assumption are you referring to?

[Stormchaser16]

Check out my post "big trouble according to SAT." I mentioned that it looks to have jogged just enough to the north to miss whatever island that is south of cuba(isle of youth?) and pass right thru the SLENDER part of Cuba.... not good

[Josephine96]

True about the rapid intensification..

Hope it doesn't get too terribly strong..

[Kennethb]

I concur. The trough is very strong. Here in Baton Rouge it is 12:00 and only the mid seventies, our normal low. Bonnie looks more extratropical. Looking at Chuck on the latest visible shows a NNW. I would not be surprised to see it veer more right, sooner.

[Stormchaser16]

Id estimate that winds could be pushing 100 MPH ATT

[Kennethb]

I concur. The trough is very strong. Here in Baton Rouge it is 12:00 and only the mid seventies, our normal low. Bonnie looks more extratropical. Looking at Chuck on the latest visible shows a NNW movement. I would not be surprised to see it veer more right, sooner.

[Josephine96]

If Charlie starts moving a little north sooner.. it could be an issue for Central Florida here.. but if it stays over water longer.. it will explode..

[Hyperstorm]

It is clear that we now have a rapid intensification phase. It is entering a warm water eddy that extends all the way to the Cuban coast. Pressure is dropping another 3 mb's since the last advisory. Won't be surprise to see a CAT 3 by 5 PM.

Also, the northern movement (wobble) continues, this is not good if it continues....

Category 3 by 5pm is pushing it. Category 2 by 5 sounds correct. Category 3 should hold until tonight at the earliest. Still though, it's bombing as we speak. Next recon pressure should confirm if it's a temporary phase or a real trend. Satellite images don't lie however...

[Anonymous]

The outflow is expanding NW, so the system is probably still heading NW. Just a jog in my opinion, dont be so quick to declare it moving NNW.

[Stormchaser16]

I dunno..... wouldnt take much to get this to a Cat 3... considering its already at 90MPH(as of last advisory) and is likely at over 100 now...... with an RIC lasting about 12 hours(started about 2-3 hours ago) its possible that it could reach 115MPH by this evening

[Josephine96]

I'm thinking it won't be a Cat 3 till late tonight or early tomorrow..

[Rainband]

You people amaze me

[jlauderdal]

Check out my post "big trouble according to SAT." I mentioned that it looks to have jogged just enough to the north to miss whatever island that is south of cuba(isle of youth?) and pass right thru the SLENDER part of Cuba.... not good

yes that is the isle of youth

[Josephine96]

Who's that Johnathan? lol

[Hyperstorm]

I dunno..... wouldnt take much to get this to a Cat 3... considering its already at 90MPH(as of last advisory) and is likely at over 100 now...... with an RIC lasting about 12 hours(started about 2-3 hours ago) its possible that it could reach 115MPH by this evening

Well, it will need at least a 20mb drop in pressure to get there. If it drops at a rate of 2mb an hour, for example, it will take at least 10 hours to reach it.

[Stormchaser16]

Yea........ true........ 5PM IMO is also pushing it, if it were to become a Cat 3 tonight, itd likely be later tonight

[Josephine96]

True Hyper..

I'm wondering how much longer pressure will drop

[paulvogel]

If you live below 10 ft elevation on the west coast of Florida from Taron down to ft myers, this is a very dangerous situation and you should prepare for the worst case. Then, when its not quite as bad as that, you can breath that sigh of relief, and if its as bad as feared, you know youve done your best to prepare

[opera ghost]

This is a dangerous assumption to be posting. Sarasota is just south of the bay area and well within the scope of Charley...

Which assumption are you referring to?

That Charley isn't going to Tampa.

People in the forcasted path (no matter how much one might disagree with the official path) need to make preperations to evacuate and get the hell out of Dodge before they can't. Now- suggesting that people in other areas (along another forcasted path that's unofficial) might also want to consider evacuation isn't bad at all. I think if I were on the west coast of Florida I'd be making tracks to Texas to visit my family out of the way of danger.

But saying that the hurricane will NTO go in a certain place helps create complacency and fosters disregard for emergency managmetn officials.

If you are in the path of this hurricane- officially (or if you just believe that it's coming for you) PREPARE FOR A NATURAL DISASTER.