Charley Advisories

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#1681 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:35 pm

When do you all think the pressure will stop dropping. ?
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Thunder44
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New Vortex on Charley 105kt Winds!

#1682 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:35 pm

But the pressure is up 1mb.

URNT12 KNHC 121704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1704Z
B. 20 DEG 14 MIN N
81 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2934 M
D. 55 KT
E. 050 DEG 022 NM
F. 160 DEG 105 KT
G. 063 DEG 009 NM
H. 981 MB
I. 9 C/ 3102 M
J. 19 C/ 3106 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C19
N. 12345/7
O. .1/7 NM
P. AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 105 KT E QUAD 1701Z.
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#1683 Postby HeatherAKC » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:36 pm

Rainband.........They amaze you because??

They're sharing their personal thoughts, ideas, philosophies on Hurricane Charley. And you're a Mod? That comment was quite condenscending and goes against what all the Mods were discussing yesterday....Hummm....

If you disagree, perhaps you could engage in some discussion rather than throw an insult. I just find it hypocritical.
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#1684 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:36 pm

At FLIGHT LEVEL

And pressure is up one millibar..... HOWEVER this is E quad not NE
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Josephine96

#1685 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:37 pm

Good post.. I think it'll come this way and I've been preparing even though I'm 65-70 miles from Tampa..

The threat of seeing 95-100 mph winds.. even if their gusts and not sustained definitely is enough to make you wanna take notice
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If the trough is that strong...

#1686 Postby N2Storms » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:37 pm

couldn't one assume that it may erode the west side of Charley much as it did to Bonnie? Or is Charley going to be strong enough to withstand the ferocious mid level southwesterly winds from the trough?
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wayoutfront

#1687 Postby wayoutfront » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:38 pm

H. 981 MB


:eek:
:darrow:
:darrow:
:darrow:
:darrow:
:darrow:
:darrow:
:eek:
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#1688 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:38 pm

It was 980 before..........

Your point?
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Cat 4?

#1689 Postby sponger » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:38 pm

Great site everyone! I was wondering what everyones thought is on the possibility of reaching cat 4 by land fall. (Similar to an Andrew or Opal situation of rapid intensification prior to landfall. I know this storm is larger than Andrew ever was but it seems Charlie is bringing his A game!
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Guest

#1690 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:38 pm

No doubt going to be a major. How much worse might it get.
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Rainband

#1691 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:39 pm

HeatherAKC wrote:Rainband.........They amaze you because??

They're sharing their personal thoughts, ideas, philosophies on Hurricane Charley. And you're a Mod? That comment was quite condenscending and goes against what all the Mods were discussing yesterday....Hummm....

If you disagree, perhaps you could engage in some discussion rather than throw an insult. I just find it hypocritical.
All I am saying is it seems like people are trying to turn this disaster their way. Why?? This is so serious it's not even funny. People come here to get accurate information. We provide the lastest track and such from the NWS and then people make comments that could confuse people. Sorry, Thats the truth. This is nothing to mess around with. I highly dout my comment was rude. Just the facts!!
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Rainband

#1692 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 pm

HeatherAKC wrote:Rainband.........They amaze you because??

They're sharing their personal thoughts, ideas, philosophies on Hurricane Charley. And you're a Mod? That comment was quite condenscending and goes against what all the Mods were discussing yesterday....Hummm....

If you disagree, perhaps you could engage in some discussion rather than throw an insult. I just find it hypocritical.
All I am saying is it seems like people are trying to turn this disaster their way. Why?? This is so serious it's not even funny. People come here to get accurate information. We provide the lastest track and such from the NWS and then people make comments that could confuse people. Sorry, Thats the truth. This is nothing to mess around with. I highly dout my comment was rude. Just the facts!!
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Rainband

#1693 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 pm

HeatherAKC wrote:Rainband.........They amaze you because??

They're sharing their personal thoughts, ideas, philosophies on Hurricane Charley. And you're a Mod? That comment was quite condenscending and goes against what all the Mods were discussing yesterday....Hummm....

If you disagree, perhaps you could engage in some discussion rather than throw an insult. I just find it hypocritical.
All I am saying is it seems like people are trying to turn this disaster their way. Why?? This is so serious it's not even funny. People come here to get accurate information. We provide the lastest track and such from the NWS and then people make comments that could confuse people. Sorry, Thats the truth. This is nothing to mess around with. I highly doubt my comment was rude. Just the facts!!
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Rainband

#1694 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 pm

HeatherAKC wrote:Rainband.........They amaze you because??

They're sharing their personal thoughts, ideas, philosophies on Hurricane Charley. And you're a Mod? That comment was quite condenscending and goes against what all the Mods were discussing yesterday....Hummm....

If you disagree, perhaps you could engage in some discussion rather than throw an insult. I just find it hypocritical.
All I am saying is it seems like people are trying to turn this disaster their way. Why?? This is so serious it's not even funny. People come here to get accurate information. We provide the lastest track and such from the NWS and then people make comments that could confuse people. Sorry, Thats the truth. This is nothing to mess around with. I highly dout my comment was rude. Just the facts!!
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#1695 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:41 pm

I know the winds are flight level. But it means we will probably have a 100-105mph hurricane at the next advisory. Unless there's something we don't know about. Perhaps they missed the eye with drosponde reading, therefore the lower pressure.
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Charley now CAT2

#1696 Postby stu » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:53 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 121704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1704Z
B. 20 DEG 14 MIN N
81 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2934 M
D. 55 KT
E. 050 DEG 022 NM
F. 160 DEG 105 KT
G. 063 DEG 009 NM
H. 981 MB
I. 9 C/ 3102 M
J. 19 C/ 3106 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C19
N. 12345/7
O. .1/7 NM
P. AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 22
MAX FL WIND 105 KT E QUAD 1701Z.
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#1697 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:55 pm

EXTREMELY BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO ...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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Anonymous

#1698 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:56 pm

I guess my confidence was justified.
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Josephine96

#1699 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:58 pm

It hasn't even reached the GOM and it's made it to Cat 2 status and it's right on the cusp of Cat 3.. Boy our news just gets better and better all the time lol
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HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A

#1700 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO ...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST.
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