Charley Advisories

[ColdWaterConch]

I hope everyone has left the Keys and Sanibel/Captiva.

I don't think that too many residents have left Key West. Just spoke to my father and they are pretty much taking it in stride. Throwing up some shutters and getting drunk.

[tallywx]

Using visible satellite and taking the very centerpoint of the eye, it's at 21.1N, 81.98W. So he is slightly, but only slightly, east of track. Just for the record, this is still exactly on course with the last two recon. positions hours ago (because I believe the NHC deviated slightly left on their initial motion than what those fixes indicated). I do not think he will pass as close to the Isle of Youth as the NHC predicts. What implications will this have? Too early to say.

[Nimbus]

000
URNT11 KNHC 121945
97779 19454 50220 86300 56500 99005 56681 /4588
RMK AF984 0703A CHARLEY OB 05

;


22 N 86.3 W Just west of
Cuba

[Brent]

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 12, 2004

...Charley strengthening as it moves toward western Cuba...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning has been extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Bayport. A Hurricane
Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from the Dry Tortugas
to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West Coast from East
Cape Sable northward to Bayport. The warning will likely be
extended northward later tonight. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area during
the next 24 hours. Preparations should be rushed to completion.

The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida West Coast
from north of Bayport northward to the Suwannee river. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Altamaha Sound...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. At 5 PM...the government of the
Cayman Islands has discontinued all warnings.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 81.9 west or about 140
miles... 230 km...south-southeast of Havana Cuba.

Charley is now moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the north is expected during
the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Charley is expected to
pass near the Isle of Youth tonight and near Havana Cuba Friday
morning. Weather conditions should begin to deteriorate over
western Cuba during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Charley a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours and Charley could become a major
hurricane later tonight or Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 10 to 14 feet can be expected along the
South Coast of Cuba near and east of where the center makes
landfall. In addition...storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected in the
Florida Keys. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 13 feet is also
possible near and south of the where the center crosses the Florida
West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...21.2 N... 81.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not going with a 4 as there still may be shear that may hold intensification as it approaches the coast

[bahamaswx]

They'll be there soon.

[LAwxrgal]

That's my guess too, a solid Cat 3. Still the potential for a major disaster exists.

[Guest]

Much farther to the east this afternoon.

[Brent]

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 12, 2004

...Charley strengthening as it moves toward western Cuba...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning has been extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Bayport. A Hurricane
Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from the Dry Tortugas
to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West Coast from East
Cape Sable northward to Bayport. The warning will likely be
extended northward later tonight. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area during
the next 24 hours. Preparations should be rushed to completion.

The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida West Coast
from north of Bayport northward to the Suwannee river. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Altamaha Sound...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. At 5 PM...the government of the
Cayman Islands has discontinued all warnings.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 81.9 west or about 140
miles... 230 km...south-southeast of Havana Cuba.

Charley is now moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the north is expected during
the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Charley is expected to
pass near the Isle of Youth tonight and near Havana Cuba Friday
morning. Weather conditions should begin to deteriorate over
western Cuba during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Charley a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours and Charley could become a major
hurricane later tonight or Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 10 to 14 feet can be expected along the
South Coast of Cuba near and east of where the center makes
landfall. In addition...storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected in the
Florida Keys. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 13 feet is also
possible near and south of the where the center crosses the Florida
West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...21.2 N... 81.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

[Trader Ron]

SOP with those in Key West. One of these years their luck will run out.

[Brent]

brings it to 105 kt(120 mph) before landfall in Florida.

Hurricane Charley Discussion Number 14

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 12, 2004

Charley continues to strengthen and become better organized based on
data from reconnaissance aircraft...satellite images...and radars
from Cuba. While the central pressure has only decreased to 980 mb
...The hurricane is moving into a region of higher than average
surface pressures for this time of the year. Therefore...the usual
pressure-wind relationship may not be valid...at this time. The
initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a flight-level wind of 105
kt...or a surface wind estimate of 95 kt...and a 92 kt dropsonde
surface wind. A small eye has become quite distinct in satellite
imagery and upper-level outflow continues to improve and expand in
all quadrants as the vertical shear has decreased significantly.

The initial motion is now 335/15. Charley basically remains on
track. Unfortunately...there is something of a quandary with the
latest NHC model guidance. The new GFDL and UKMET runs have made a
wide turn 75 to 150 nmi left of the previous forecast track...and
most of the other global models and NHC models have also made a
westward shift. However...the 6- and 12-hour GFDL and UKMET
forecast positions are already 30 to 60 nmi west or left of the
current position and motion. A strong upstream trough noted digging
southeastward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in water vapor
imagery should help to block any significant westward motion. Based
on the developing westerly to southwesterly synoptic flow pattern
over the Gulf...and an apparent left bias by most of the model
guidance...the official track is just an update and extension of
the previous two forecast tracks.
The upper-low to the west of Charley is no longer an inhibiting
factor. In contrast...Charley has developed well-defined
upper-level anticyclonic outflow that shows signs of only getting
better for the next 24 hours. Given the small eye feature and an
abundance of warm water ahead of the Hurricane...Charley is
expected to continue strengthening...possibly even rapidly
intensifying...and become a major hurricane before making landfall
over western Cuba this evening. The terrain over western Cuba is
not particularly high and little...if any...disruption of the
circulation is expected. Given the impressive outflow regime that
is forecast to develop over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf
by all of the global and regional models...major hurricane strength
seems quite probable over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
Charley could strengthen a little more between the 12 and 24 hours
time periods...and then weaken slightly before making landfall due
to increasing vertical shear and cooler coastal waters around the
Tampa Bay area. The official forecast is consistent with the SHIPS
and GFDL intensity models.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/2100z 21.2n 81.9w 90 kt
12hr VT 13/0600z 23.1n 82.7w 100 kt
24hr VT 13/1800z 26.5n 83.0w 105 kt
36hr VT 14/0600z 30.5n 82.3w 65 kt...inland
48hr VT 14/1800z 34.2n 80.0w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/1800z 42.0n 75.0w 35 kt...inland extratropical
96hr VT 16/1800z 48.5n 65.0w 30 kt...inland extratropical
120hr VT 17/1800z...absorbed by frontal system

[Nimbus]

000
URNT11 KNHC 122020
97779 20204 50205 84000 30400 36019 10063 /3167 43515
RMK AF984 0703A CHARLEY OB 07

;

20.5 N 84.0 W getting close

[tallbunch]

jacksonville then me

[LAwxrgal]

5 pm advisory says NNW at 18.

[Skywatch_NC]

Much farther to the east this afternoon.

What color of model line path forecast are you referring to?

[Janie34]

Everything is going Charley's way. Sounds like really bad news for Florida.

[HalloweenGale]

should be a strong T.S oh BTW that storm was ISABEL, not ISIDORE

[Stephanie]

I think all of them are much further east Eric.

[birdwomn]

Does anyone have a map with the new 5pm wanrings & watches posted?

Thanks much!

[Anonymous]

Quite a scary forecast!