Charley Advisories

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cycloneye
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Steve Lyons=Landfall around southcentral West Florida

#1801 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 12, 2004 3:56 pm

That is what Steve Lyons about landfall area said a short time ago and he said it will make landfall as a cat 3 120 mph.
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Re: need a map with warnings posted

#1802 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 3:58 pm

birdwomn wrote:Does anyone have a map with the new 5pm wanrings & watches posted?

Thanks much!


this map will be updated soon to reflect the 5pm advisory, includes the track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 21453W.gif
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#1803 Postby Skywatch_NC » Thu Aug 12, 2004 3:59 pm

The red one looks like an NHC path forecast for Bonnie...right through Raleigh.

Eric
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#1804 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:07 pm

I have been so busy preparing and helping others..I have hardly had a chance to watch this unfold today..Dang it's still gonna be close and now a Major... :roll:
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wayoutfront

#1805 Postby wayoutfront » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:10 pm

Do I read that right

exiting Fl a cat 1 back into the atlantic :eek:
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Charley

#1806 Postby Colin » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:14 pm

NHC has put kind of the same track for their 5 PM update...but I was just wondering what all of you thought on the track of Charley. Because now I'm kind of hoping I feel at least the rain from it.

Thanks!
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Derek Ortt

#1807 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:15 pm

if it moves offshore, it should still be a cat 1 at that time
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Re: Is it a wobble or is Charlie moving NNW now?

#1808 Postby lookout » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:16 pm

MGC wrote:Sure looks to be on a NNW heading now. This only increases the risk to Key West, Sanibel and Ft Myers.......MGC


Well actually, just about all of the models at this time frame show him moving NNW. So he is supposed to be moving NNW. Matter of fact, even the western most models, Nogaps, GFDL show him moving just about due north by the time he reaches Cuba. Only exception is the UK which has him still moving between NNW and due north after Cuba. So this is no suprise. The REAL turning point IMO will be which direction he will be moving after passing over Cuba. IF he is still moving NNW or even between north and NNW, this should increase the threat somewhat to the upper peninsula of Florida over toward Apalachee Bay. personally, i still think somewhere between the
Apalachee Bay and Pasco county (just north of Tampa)will be the point of landfall, then NNE from there. Dixie and Levy counties are right in the middle of my landfall area. (a shade to the west of the current nhc track). but even a temperory wobble of this storm in one direction or another after it passes cuba could effect the point of landfall dramatically so still way up in the air imo. but overall i think charley is pretty much on track with current guidance.
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#1809 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:18 pm

very remote chance.
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#1810 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:20 pm

Landfall is too far north.
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#1811 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:23 pm

Feel free to update this thread, I haven't been able to get an OBS in over an hour. Maybe the pilot said yup looks like a cat 3 all right lets fly home?
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#1812 Postby rtd2 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:24 pm

southcentral west florida.......Is there such a place?
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#1813 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:25 pm

LOL....
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Charley's eye almost over southern cuba...

#1814 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:27 pm

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#1815 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:27 pm

Aquawind wrote:I have been so busy preparing and helping others..I have hardly had a chance to watch this unfold today..Dang it's still gonna be close and now a Major... :roll:


NHC parallels it to the Florida West Coast painstakingly close all day tomorrow until finally bringing it in about 40-50 miles north of Tampa.
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#1816 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:29 pm

can I call them or what.. :lol:

Re: A question

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Colin
I'm hoping that this area gets missed by Charley...and it looks like it may. Latest models are indicating it to go offshore and move NE from there - at least some models show that. So what are the chances now for it missing most of the NE?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



reverse pyschology at it's finest .
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#1817 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:30 pm

Lyons is just stating what TPC is now forecasting in their 5pm Advisory.
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New Charley VORTEX, only down 1 MB since last recon...

#1818 Postby Derecho » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:30 pm

479
URNT12 KNHC 122059
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/2059Z
B. 21 DEG 07 MIN N
82 DEG 01 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2915 M
D. 35 KT
E. 228 DEG 019 NM
F. 313 DEG 62 KT
G. 224 DEG 006 NM
H. 979 MB
I. 11 C/ 3060 M
J. 17 C/ 3054 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 4 NM
P. AF984 0703A CHARLEY OB 09
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SW QUAD 2057Z. EYE WALL IS 100%, BUT SOME
WEAKNESS ENE THROUGH SE.
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Guest

#1819 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:33 pm

Pressures are typically high in this area and have less relevence than usual in regards to Charley.
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#1820 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:33 pm

that's an awful low flight wind for that storm..even for sw quad...think they do another vortex?
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