Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

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wilmington-nc
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Models

#1 Postby wilmington-nc » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:28 pm

Check out the 8PM BAMM


Image
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Weatherboy1
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18Z models slightly more E?

#2 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:30 pm

The very latest tropical models look to have converged more to the E -- as opposed to the Panhandle, they almost all are suggesting a path over the Tampa Bay area or slightly south. I have to tell you -- IF this thing gets to Cat 3 status, things are going to be REAL ugly with this storm. You're possibly talking about several hundred million dollars worth of damage, etc. Good luck west coasters!
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#3 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:31 pm

Means ILM gets nailed by Part 2?
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:32 pm

I don't like the BAMM depiction ...

ON latest WV imagery, I'm already seeing signs that the ULL that has pulled away from Charley's influence is influencing a portion of the trough in the Central GOM ... with diffluence aloft ... another strong trough is digging down and will pull Charley to the N and eventually NNE, but I think that the recurvature will occur closer to the clustering of that model map's GFDL, NOGAPS, and GFS run depiction ...
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:33 pm

I have no idea how the BAMM does in the 36 hours range. But if it followed that track I'd see hurricane force gusts in Melbourne if he's a CAtIII at landfall.
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The Dark Knight
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#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:33 pm

I hope that Charley takes the BAM track.... Cape Cod is long overdue...LOL.. for a storm. The last big one that we had was T.S. Floyd...
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#7 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:38 pm

Charley actually has cloud tops that have warmed significantly. Think he will pick up when he passes Cuba.
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#8 Postby Winnipesaukee » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:40 pm

I (heart) BAMM.

Even more than Emeril.
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#9 Postby Three Blind Mice » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:41 pm

appears Bonnie went east of models and Charley may as well. Just hope there is no chance of getting over water like the Bam shows. We have had tremendous rains last 2 hours. Any winds over 60 and we will have problems here in ILM.
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